The Oregon Ducks take on the Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing, Michigan. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on FOX.
Michigan State is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -355. The total is set at 146.5 points.
Here are my Oregon vs. Michigan State predictions and college basketball picks for February 8, 2025.
Oregon vs Michigan State Prediction
My Pick: Michigan State -7.5 (Play to -8.5)
My Oregon vs Michigan State best bet is on the Spartans spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Oregon vs Michigan State Odds
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 146.5 -110 / -110 | +280 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 146.5 -110 / -110 | -355 |
- Oregon vs Michigan State spread: Michigan State -7.5
- Oregon vs Michigan State over/under: 146.5 points
- Oregon vs Michigan State moneyline: Michigan State -355, Oregon +280
- Oregon vs Michigan State best bet: Michigan State -7.5 (Play to -8.5)
Spread
I like Michigan State against the spread up to -8.5.
Moneyline
There's no value on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total.
My Pick: Michigan State -7.5 (Play to -8.5)
Oregon vs Michigan State College Basketball Betting Preview
I'm safe with tabbing Oregon as America's streakiest team. On January 12, Oregon was sitting pretty with a 15-2 overall record and a 4-2 record in the Big Ten. Now the Ducks' record is 16-7 overall (5-7 in the conference) and they're staring down yet another loss.
As is the case with the majority of Dana Altman-coached teams, defense sets up the offense. And in the last four games, the defense has entirely disappeared. The Ducks allowed 1.07 PPP or worse in each of their last four contests — all losses.
In turn, Oregon's offense fell to 72nd in Bart Torvik's efficiency since January 1.
The biggest culprit is a fairly concerning one: Oregon is getting thrashed from inside the arc, which is a strong indicator of long-term defensive problems. In a loss to Nebraska, the Huskers shot over 78% from inside the arc, as Brice Williams and Rollie Worster easily got into the lane.
Since January 1, Oregon is 283rd in 2-point field goal defense. Conversely, it holds teams to 23% shooting from 3, which is third nationally.
That's a good thing, but I don't have a ton of faith in the Ducks magically turning into a good defense.
Coach Altman needs more from his streaky guards. Jackson Shelstad, Keeshawn Barthelemy and TJ Bamba is an elite guard trio when they're right, but all three have struggled lately — and the struggles are impacting the entire offense.
Facing this dominant Spartans defense is a tough medicine for a scuffling offense.
Michigan State got a taste of the travel challenges in the new Big Ten; heading to Southern California to face USC and UCLA left the Spartans vulnerable.
The good news is Michigan State wasn't going unbeaten in Big Ten play, so losing a few was inevitable.
They started slow in both contests in L.A., trailing USC by 15 and UCLA by seven in the first half. That's not something Michigan State had faced in months, so it was a teaching moment for the legendary Tom Izzo.
Plus, Michigan State had several chances to beat UCLA in the final seconds.
Those losses open up an ideal get-right spot for the Spartans.
Michigan State is a defensive-first squad that held both USC and UCLA to fewer than 1.05 PPP. The Spartans are elite at contesting jumpers, ranking in the 99th percentile versus spot-up shots.
Meanwhile, Oregon's main offensive source is jumpers. The problem is the Ducks shoot just 33% from 3 and rank in the 44th percentile on spot-up jumpers.
Moreover, Michigan State is outstanding at making teams pay for taking bad shots. Oregon often takes pretty poor looks from deep, which could be a huge advantage for Michigan State's struggling offense. It thrives on pushing in transition and moving the ball at an elite clip (65% assist rate).
Shooting is my biggest worry for Michigan State. It's been a season-long struggle, as it's hitting just 28% from 3 — the worst mark among high-major schools.
Nobody in Michigan State's starting lineup shoots better than 33% from 3. You might say Jeremy Fears Jr. shoots 42%, but he attempts 0.9 3s per contest. He's a total non-threat from deep, just like the rest of Michigan State's lineup.
The Spartans have made up for the shooting issues by drilling 55% from 2 and 80% from the foul line.
Keep an eye on Jaden Akins and Jase Richardson. Akins is the only Michigan State player who averages double-digit points, but Richardson is the key here. He's averaging 9.3 points per game in around 21 minutes a contest.
Just like every freshman, the proverbial wall hits, and Richardson is no exception. In the past three games, Richardson is just 4-of-18 from the field. He needs to get right soon for Sparty to be great.
This line sits at -7.5, which feels about right. I figured the Spartans would sit in the 7.5-8.5 range. I'm willing to take the Spartans up to 8.5 since I have trust in their defense limiting Oregon's offense, and I foresee the Ducks' defense getting punished at the rim once again.
