The Oregon Ducks take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in Columbus, OH. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
Ohio State is favored by 3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -160. The total is set at 149.5 points.
Here are my Oregon vs. Ohio State predictions and college basketball picks for January 9, 2025.
Oregon vs Ohio State Odds
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 149.5 -108 / -112 | +135 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 149.5 -108 / -112 | -160 |
- Oregon vs Ohio State spread: Ohio State -3
- Oregon vs Ohio State over/under: 149.5 points
- Oregon vs Ohio State moneyline: Ohio State -160, Oregon +135
- Oregon vs Ohio State best bet: Oregon +3 (Play to +2)
My Oregon vs Ohio State best bet is on the Ducks spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Oregon vs Ohio State College Basketball Betting Preview
I’m a non-believer in Ohio State. However, the Buckeyes have benefited from some lucky shooting variance (37% 3-point shooting, 28% 3-point shooting allowed), which helped fuel wins over Texas (14-for-28 shooting from 3) and Kentucky (4-for-22 shooting from 3 allowed).
When the shooting variance flips the other way, things get ugly. For example, blowout losses to Maryland and Auburn in which the offense couldn’t break 60 points and the defense allowed over 80.
Aside from two strange home losses to UCLA and Illinois, the Ducks have looked dominant. Of course, Thursday will be their first foray eastward this season, as they haven’t voyaged further than Las Vegas. I’m uncertain how Big Ten travel will affect Dana Altman and Co.
It’s also a tricky schematic matchup.
Altman will switch between amoeba zone coverage and drop coverage on defense, and that will primarily funnel Bruce Thornton into on-ball dribble creation, where he’s been nearly unstoppable on a per-possession efficiency basis (1.3 PPP, 98th percentile).
But Oregon’s been elite against the dribble (.66 PPP allowed, 83rd percentile), and I’m weary of Ohio State’s mid-range shooting (30%, 20th percentile) and its continued catch-and-shoot regression.
That said, Ohio State will also hunt isolation mismatches, a weakness of Oregon’s defense (.89 PPP allowed, 22nd percentile).
However, Meechie Johnson Jr. could miss another game on his leave of absence, adversely affecting Ohio State’s dribble-isolation offense when the Buckeyes need it the most.
On the other end of the court, the Ducks primarily play through Nate Bittle in the post, and Ohio State boasts a rock-solid post-up defense (.74 PPP allowed, 83rd percentile).
However, mobile three-level scoring bigs like Bittle have successfully unpacked Ohio State’s drop coverage — for example, Broome posted 21 points and 20 boards (seven offensive) against the Buckeyes.
I don’t have an excellent feel for the game, but ultimately, I’m going with the Ducks.
I think Ohio State is still overvalued and due for continued regression as the season progresses. Most advanced analytical models (Bart Torvik, Haslametrics, EvanMiya) agree, projecting the game around a pick'em — our Action PRO Model projects Oregon as a 2.5-point road favorite.
I’m also uncertain if any are accounting for Johnson’s continued absence.
Moreover, it’s the perfect spot for an Ohio State letdown following its crazy lucky double-overtime win over Minnesota on Monday. The Buckeyes could be gassed after playing a 50-minute road battle just 72 hours before — Thornton played 47 minutes, and he’ll be overly crucial in Thursday’s matchup if Johnson again can’t suit up.
Meanwhile, the Ducks have enough schematic advantages to win on the road. They're a good team with plenty of two-way versatile playmakers.
Pick: Oregon +3 (Play to +2)
