The Oregon Ducks take on the Stanford Cardinal in San Jose, CA. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
Oregon is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -230. The total is set at 149 points.
Here are my Oregon vs. Stanford predictions and college basketball picks for December 21, 2024.
Oregon vs Stanford Prediction
My Pick: PASS | LEAN Oregon -6.5
My Oregon vs Stanford best bet is a pass, but with a lean toward the Ducks to cover the spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Oregon vs Stanford Odds, Spread
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 149 -110o / -110u | -230 |
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 149 -110o / -110u | +190 |
- Oregon vs Stanford spread: Oregon -5.5
- Oregon vs Stanford over/under: 149.5 points
- Oregon vs Stanford moneyline: Oregon -230, Stanford +190
- Oregon vs Stanford best bet: PASS | LEAN Oregon -6.5
Oregon vs Stanford College Basketball Betting Preview
Altman is well-renowned for aligning Rubik's cubes, and he has two extra days of rest and prep than Stanford as the two prepare for Saturday’s battle.
For what it’s worth, Altman's Ducks are 60-48-3 ATS with a rest advantage.
The problem is that much of that is negated by the fact that Oregon is 28-36-1 ATS as a road favorite under Coach Altman — granted, this one is listed as a semi-away game, taking place at the SAP Center in San Jose (home of the Sharks).
The Ducks also tend to struggle more in the non-conference, given Altman’s defensive scheme is tricky to learn and takes a long adjustment period.
The strength-of-schedule factor favors Oregon here, too. Despite a brutal schedule featuring six games against KenPom top-100 competition, the Ducks are 10-1 — it’s been the nation’s 30th-toughest schedule so far.
Their only loss during the stretch came at home against UCLA on an unreal, unlucky bounce.
Oregon is battle-tested, and it's passed almost every test with flying colors.
Conversely, Stanford has played nobody. It ranks 314th nationally in SOS and is 1-1 against KenPom top-100 competition — a win against KenPom No. 72 Santa Clara and a loss to KenPom No. 97 Grand Canyon. The Tree also lost a home game to KenPom No. 238 Cal Poly, which won’t look great on an at-large resume.
The Ducks will undoubtedly be Stanford’s most formidable test yet.
I also don’t mind the schematic matchup for Oregon.
Stanford almost exclusively plays through Maxime Raynaud in the post, whether typical post-up shots, inside-out passes from a double-team, pick-and-pops or high-low actions in Kyle Smith’s innovative two-big lineup.
Raynaud is an elite big man who will shine under Smith’s tutelage. Still, Oregon’s trapping amoeba zone excels in post-denial (.75 post-up PPP allowed, 77th percentile) and roll-man denial (.81 roll-man PPP allowed, 85th percentile).
Stanford might struggle to play through Raynaud, especially if Nate Bittle handles that matchup, given he allows only .54 post-up PPP, ranking in the 87th percentile of D-I players.
Coach Altman loves playing through Bittle in the post on the other end of the court, and Raynaud is a positively dominant post-up defender (.27 PPP allowed, 99th percentile).
But Smith runs a deep drop-coverage defense, with Raynaud anchoring at the rim. This funnels most opponents into on-ball, middle-of-the-floor creation.
While that seems like a good thing against an Oregon squad that downplays on-ball creation, the Ducks theoretically could reverse course and lean into their dearth of shot creators. Jackson Shelstad and Jadrian Tracey are menaces in the backcourt. Keeshawn Barthelemy and TJ Bamba are reasonably good off the wings.
While it funnels everything into that area, Stanford is a miserable defense against the dribble (.93 pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP allowed, fourth percentile; 14.1 pick-and-roll ball-handler PPG allowed, 360th nationally), and the Ducks have the firepower to exploit that fully.
Ultimately, however, I can’t be entirely sure that Dana and the Ducks will follow that game plan. They could struggle if they stick to playing through Bittle in the post.
I also don’t project much value in this spread, which I make around Oregon -7.5.
So, the game is a pure pass for me.
But if I were compelled, I’d play the Ducks, who have the necessary schematic and coaching advantages to overpower a Stanford team that has played absolutely nobody.
