March Madness is about buzzer-beaters and bracket-busters — at least that's what we expect. But the 2019 NCAA Tournament has been tame.
After the first weekend of action, only one Cinderella remains.
The 12-seed Oregon upset 5-seed Wisconsin in the Round of 64, then easily dispatched 13-seed UC Irvine in the second round. Dana Altman's bunch has a date with 1-seed Virginia on Thursday (9:59 p.m. ET on TBS) with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line.
A majority of spread tickets are on Oregon to cover as 8.5-point underdogs as of writing (see live odds and public betting data here). Bettors always love an underdog come March, and the Ducks have rewarded gamblers with a 2-0 against the spread (ATS) start to the tournament.
But should the public put their faith in a double-digit seed in the Sweet 16?
According to our data a Bet Labs, there have been 29 teams seeded 10th or lower that reached the Sweet 16 since 2005. Those squads had gone 60-0 straight up and 60-0 ATS before reaching the second weekend of the tournament.
Unfortunately, the glass slipper tends to fall off in the Sweet 16. Teams seeded 10th or lower have gone 7-23 SU and 14-15-1 ATS in the Sweet 16 since 2005.
Even though a majority of bets are on Oregon, the line has shifted from UVA -7.5 to -8.5, suggesting that sharp bettors are laying the points with the Hoos.
The Action Network power ratings make Virginia an 11-point favorite.
Your buddy is probably betting the Ducks, but smart money is on the Cavaliers.
