It's the end of the Pac-12 as we know it, so enjoy the final season of Pac-12 basketball, featuring the likes of UCLA, USC, Arizona and anybody besides Oregon State and Washington State.
One day, we'll all tell our grandchildren about how the Pac-12 collapsed, but let me tell you who to back in the meantime.
Pac-12 Regular Season NCAAB Conference Title Odds
| Team Name | Odds (Via FanDuel) |
| Arizona | +180 |
| USC | +410 |
| Colorado | +650 |
| UCLA | +700 |
| Oregon | +950 |
| Stanford | +1100 |
| Utah | +1400 |
| Washington | +2200 |
| Cal | +3000 |
| Arizona State | +4000 |
| Washington State | +4000 |
| Oregon State | +25000 |
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
The Favorites
Arizona Wildcats
The Arizona Wildcats won the Pac-12 title in each of Tommy Lloyd's first two seasons at the helm. Will he complete the trifecta in 2023? I think so — and the odds aren't indicative of the stranglehold the Wildcats could have on the conference.
The current iteration of the Wildcats is without the pro talent of two years ago, but it may have the most proven college talent of Lloyd's tenure.
Three players — Caleb Love (North Carolina), Oumar Ballo (Gonzaga) and Keshad Johnson (SDSU) all played in the national title at previous programs. That winning experience will matter in Tucson.
Lloyd has a terrific formula for becoming a legitimate title contender: great guard play with breakout sensation Kylan Boswell and Love, a plus defense and an intricate style to prepare for.
Look, Love is the most polarizing player in America for a reason. You either love (no pun intended) his ability to drop 30 a night, or dislike that he's just as likely to go 6-of-20 from the floor. That said, Lloyd should get the most out of the former UNC star this season.
I'm most interested in seeing how Johnson transitions to a different program. At San Diego State, he focused on defense. The super-senior never averaged double-digit points in a single season, so making that type of leap could seem unrealistic. But I'm here to tell you it's not.
He'll translate his winning mindset and defensive ability learned at San Diego State, and he'll pair that with a much more friendly offensive system to improve his scoring. It's the perfect fit for both sides. The Wildcats get better defensively, and he'll have a chance to show off improved offensive skills.
At plus money, it's a solid value for the clear favorite in the conference. It'll take time for other teams to get healthy and gain cohesion, while Arizona should be fine humming immediately.
UCLA Bruins
After a stretch of inconsistency at the end of Steve Alford's tenure, Mick Cronin put the Bruins on the national radar, which is where they belong.
They rattled off three consecutive top-13 ranked seasons in KenPom, compounding the success with three second-weekend tournament appearances.
It will look different this year, though.
The trio that carried the Bruins within a second of a national title game — Jaime Jaquez Jr., Tyger Campbell and Johnny Juzang — are all playing professionally.
Cronin's task of replacing two of the better programs players over the past two decades in Jaquez and Campbell is an unenviable one.
The Bruins did so in an unconventional fashion. They only brought in one transfer — Lazar Stefanovic (Utah), who's an instant plug-and-play wing starter. He averaged 10.3 points for the conference-rival Utes last season.
Elsewhere, the other three big-name additions — Jan Vide, Aday Mara and Berke Buyuktuncel — come from international waters. It's an interesting strategy, as high-major teams have yet to rely on international freshmen to this extent.
Moreover, both Mara — a skilled 7-foot-2 big — and Buyuktuncel — a multi-positional forward — have yet to be cleared to play. When will that come? It's completely unknown.
UCLA could pencil in Campbell at point guard and not think twice about it the past four years. Now who's going to initiate offense? Former top-100 recruits Dylan Andrews and Will McClendon should have chances as returnees, but Vide taking the job is the ideal scenario. The Slovenian combo guard has unlimited upside.
UCLA's best player pound-for-pound is defensive menace Adem Bona, who returns for another season after testing the NBA draft. Bona is the focal point for this team as a defensive-first player, which could indicate a change in Cronin's philosophy. In Bona's first season on campus, he averaged 7.7 points, 5.3 rebounds and just shy of two blocks per contest.
During his successful tenure at Cincinnati, Cronin's defensive mindset typically led to wins. It's not always pretty, but it counts the same.
For this iteration of UCLA to consistently win games, it likely starts on defense — with Andrews as the point of attack guy and Bona cleaning things up at the tin.
There are too many unknowns to justify paying the current price, though. The upside is clear, but the floor is missing the tournament entirely.
USC Trojans
The Trojans pose the biggest threat to Arizona to win the conference, and the odds reflect it.
USC checks arguably the biggest box for becoming a successful team: having elite guard play. It features the top-ranked recruit in the 2023 class and the Pac-12 Preseason Player of the Year, Boogie Ellis.
That duo has the potential to carry the Trojans to a conference title. It's clearly the most dangerous backcourt in the league, although Arizona's is nothing to scoff at.
My biggest thing is seeing how Ellis and Collier mesh. Ellis is used to being "the guy" at USC, while Collier was that guy in high school. How do these two co-exist and make each other better? That's the Trojans' main obstacle to winning the league.
Outside of those two, Kobe Johnson and Joshua Morgan pose two of the best defensive threats in the league.
Johnson is highly underrated nationally as a lockdown, multi-positional defender who's capable of scoring and handling the ball. He's an excellent third scoring option next to Ellis and Collier.
USC has one major issues if a backcourt injury occurs: there needs to be more depth, especially with Bronny James' status in question following his cardiac arrest this summer. If Ellis or Collier go down, it would burn our USC future. It's all hypothetical, but it's something to note.
I love the +410 number for this USC roster. The talent is too good to ignore, and the Trojans are the clear threat to Arizona's hope of winning another league title.
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Good Values
Colorado Buffaloes
Tad Boyle consistently overachieves despite never finishing top-three in the Pac-12. But winning in Boulder is challenging.
There's star power on this roster this season, though. Tristan Da Silva is now fully entrenched in the leader role, and he's arguably the best two-way player in the conference. Da Silva tested the NBA draft waters before deciding to run it back at CU.
The pathway to unlocking that top-three potential is KJ Simpson finally developing into a consistent shooter. At times, Colorado looked better without the ball-stopping of Simpson, who's never seen a shot he doesn't like. Simpson averaged 15.9 points but shot below 40% from the floor and below 30% from deep.
It's a must for Simpson to make significant strides in those areas.
Also, remember the incoming duo of steady big-man Eddie Lampkin Jr. from TCU and five-star recruit Cody Williams.
Williams is the younger brother of Oklahoma City Thunder star Jalen Williams, so the bloodlines run strong. Of course, Cody is different; he's not the scorer his elder brother is. Regardless, Colorado needs Cody to pose a positive presence on defense, using his lengthy wing frame while hitting an occasional jumper.
Colorado fits better as the third-best team in the league instead of UCLA. However, the odds reflect otherwise at some sportsbooks. Colorado should make the tournament as a single-digit seed this season, and don't be shocked if they end up in the top 25.
Oregon Ducks
Let the record show I'm not super in on this Oregon team, and I'll explain why. However, it's hard to ignore the value on the Ducks to win the conference.
Oregon has missed the Big Dance the past two seasons, which is entirely disappointing by its standards. Why? Injuries. The Ducks couldn't stay healthy — to the point of being forced to sometimes play walk-ons.
Still, Dana Altman's lengthy winning history lends reason to believe things will improve in Eugene.
Oregon's lack of shooting and point guard play are my concerns. Jermaine Couisnard averaged 12 points but shot less than 40% from the floor, Keeshawn Barthelemy averaged nine points and shot below 42% and Georgia transfer Kario Oquendo shot below 40% last season.
Three guards who figure to play significant roles — possibly all starting simultaneously — all shot below 42% from the field, and only Barthelemy shot above 35% from 3 (35.7%.)
None lack talent, though. Barthelemy is the speedier guard, while both Cousinard and Oquendo boast terrific physical scoring traits and cover downhill with ease.
It all comes down to shooting and involving the Ducks' centerpiece, big man N'Faly Dante. The former five-star recruit finally shook off the injury bug and put forth his first healthy season, averaging 13.4 points and 8.2 rebounds per contest in 2022-23. He's an absolute physical beast inside and could be the Pac-12's best frontcourt piece.
I wouldn't mind snagging an Oregon future, especially with the freshmen trio of KJ Evans Jr., Mookie Cook and Jackson Shelstad headlining a top-10 ranked first-year class. While none will likely start against Georgia on opening night, all should play some role instantly.
The most significant upside piece this season is Shelsted, the least-heralded of the bunch. His playmaking ability could change the team's outlook, as it needs a consistent lead-guard presence.
Stanford Cardinal
Jerod Haase's eighth season in Palo Alto could be his final if the lengthy decade-long tournament drought remains.
And you know what? I'll say it: Stanford makes the NCAA tournament and Haase survives.
The main reason for finally breaking the cycle is adding a veteran point guard who's won at the highest level. That is Jared Bynum from Providence, a cool and calm presence to help set up the scorers, 7-footer Maxime Raynaud, Andrej Stojakovic and Spencer Jones.
Stojakovic is the best pure talent on the roster. The skilled wing is a top-25 recruit whose last name may sound familiar. He's the son of Peja Stojakovic, one of the best shooters in NBA history. The younger Stojakovic has more ball skills, athleticism and three-level scoring ability than his father.
Factor in the presence of bench-shooter Michael Jones, other starting forward Brandon Angel and freshman guard Kanaan Carlyle, and the Cardinal have a good rotation.
Haase will do just enough to stick around for Stanford's transition to the ACC next season. For now, get ready to see a much-improved offensive unit from the Cardinal.
Cal Golden Bears
My view on the Golden Bears changed in the last week — since Texas Tech transfer Jaylon Tyson's waiver got denied. The 6-foot-7 skilled wing transfer had the talent to put Cal over the top. Unless something changes, Tyson won't play this season, drastically changing everything.
However, it seems likely Cal will at least appeal Tyson's waiver denial. If Tyson is ultimately deemed eligible, it's totally worth throwing a shot on the Golden Bears as a deep-cut 'dog.
Still, California's talent level is noticeably better from one season ago.
Mark Madsen brought in double-double machine Fardaws Aimaq from Texas Tech, lethal shooter Jalen Cone (NAU) and versatile wing Keondre Kennedy (Memphis). Bringing in three talented vets will help establish Madsen's culture quickly in Berkeley.
Madsen's culture was terrific at Utah Valley, winning 48 games in his final two seasons in Orem. Although he's won before, there's nothing quite like winning at Cal. It isn't easy.
The standards couldn't be lower. The Bears' last winning season came in 2016-17, when Ivan Rabb led the team in scoring and rebounding. At least California has a golden opportunity to put forth a formidable winning season for the first time in several years.
Utah Utes
You get old, you stay old and you win in college basketball. That's the motto for the Utah Utes in Craig Smith's second season on campus.
His returning core features five seniors, including versatile 7-footer Branden Carlson, who's one of the Pac-12's finest bigs. Carlson is returning for one final season on campus and is looking to bring the Utes to the tourney — finally. He averaged 16.4 points and 7.5 rebounds one season ago.
The key guard pieces — Rollie Worster and Gabe Madsen — need to focus on staying healthy, as their injuries completely derailed the Utes in 2022.
The issue? Nobody on this roster has self-creation ability, aside from Carlson — to some extent. You can put the ball in Carlson's hands and he'll make something happen, but Utah is missing the Ellis', Love's or Simpson's of the world.
Unless Madsen suddenly turns a corner and becomes a more reliable scorer, it will be an uphill battle for Utah to score enough points to beat the conference's upper-echelon teams.
The odds are pretty lofty, and I like Utah better than others. There's some sleeper appeal here, based on having a proven coach and an elite player. I can't see it culminating in a conference title, though I'll monitor spots to back the defensive-minded Utes.
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Ones to Ignore
Washington State Cougars
Nobody in the conference got hit harder by questionable draft decisions than Washington State.
The Cougs lost Justin Powell (who went undrafted) and Mo Gueye (who barely heard his name called). We'd have an entirely different conversation if those returned to school.
Instead, both left, and Kyle Smith was left to pick up the remains.
Smith's two major portal boons — Isaac Jones (Idaho) and Joseph Yesufu (Kansas) — could develop into the team's top two scorers.
Jones is dominant as a back-to-the-basket player, averaging 19.4 points and 7.8 rebounds for the Vandals last season.
Furthermore, Yesufu got buried behind some talented guards in Lawrence but brought Drake to an at-large tournament bid three seasons ago. He can finally show off his scoring prowess at the highest level.
Again, there are some pieces to like here, and I expect the Cougars to be better than expected. But it's not worth betting on their long odds to win the league. Look more towards some early-season lines to back the Cougs.
Arizona State Sun Devils
After sneaking into the NCAA tournament as one of the last four in, Bobby Hurley kept his seat relatively "cold" for the time being.
That team significantly differed from the "Guard U" era teams in Tempe. The 2022-23 team focused on elite athleticism and defense to carry the load, but it lost Devan and Desmond Cambridge and Warren Washington. Those three pieces played integral roles in the Sun Devils reaching the Big Dance.
To return to the NCAA tournament, guards Frankie Collins and Jamiya Neal must make significant jumps as scorers.
The most intriguing name to watch is LSU transfer Shawn Phillips Jr. A former top-100 recruit, Phillips didn't play consistent minutes for the Tigers, but Arizona State has a ready-made role for him.
I struggle to see ASU reaching the tournament again, barring a massive improvement from Neal and JUCO transfer Malachi Davis morphing into an all-conference scorer.
Washington Huskies
Mike Hopkins won a pair of Pac-12 Coach of the Year awards in his first two seasons in Washington. But that happened in 2017-19, and the Huskies haven't finished better than fifth place in the conference since then.
The Huskies' talent base improved significantly with Sahvir Wheeler (Kentucky) and Paul Mulcahy (Rutgers) entering to solidify the backcourt. Both players can defend and make plays as passers, but both need help to score consistently.
So, where's the scoring coming from? Sophomore Koren Johnson and fifth-year senior Keion Brooks Jr.
Johnson reached double-figure points in three of his four final games to finish the season, and his role should only expand. At times, Brooks was Washington's only reliable scoring option, but he isn't a huge threat from deep, as he mainly scores from 15 feet and in.
The lack of shooting is a noted concern, but I love the defensive potential, with athletic rim-protector Braxton Meah as a deterrent for any drivers.
Washington isn't winning the league, but even making the tournament is an uphill battle. I project the Huskies as an NIT-caliber team.
Oregon State Beavers
The Beavers from Oregon State hold the longest odds to win the Pac-12, and it's for a good reason.
The Beavs finished 11th last season, thanks to Cal being dreadful and freshman guard Jordan Pope developing into one of the better guards in the conference. Now a sophomore, Pope has all the potential to jump into the first-team All-Pac-12 discussion after averaging 12 points a season ago.
Oregon State didn't bring any firepower from the portal to help Pope, though. Hopefully, last year's portal newcomers — guard Christian Wright and 7-footer Chol Marial — stay healthy. Otherwise, it's largely the same squad — minus Glenn Taylor Jr. (St. John's) on the wing.
The Wayne Tinkle era has been a complete disaster if you erase the miracle Elite Eight run in 2021. I have no reason to believe that will change now.
Oregon State has won less than 35% of its conference touts in Tinkle's eight seasons at the helm. Typically, a winning percentage of that nature usually results in a coaching change, but one miracle tournament performance completely alters the outlook.
