The Penn Quakers take on the Villanova Wildcats in Bryn Mawr, PA. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on Peacock.
The Wildcats are favored by -14.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1200. The total is also set at 141.5 points.
Here’s my Penn vs. Villanova predictions and college basketball picks for November 19, 2024.
Penn vs. Villanova Prediction
My Pick: Under 141.5
My Penn vs Villanova best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Penn vs. Villanova Odds
| Penn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -105 | 141.5 -110o / -110u | +750 |
| Villanova Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -115 | 141.5 -110o / -110u | -1200 |
- Penn vs. Villanova spread: Villanova -12.5
- Penn vs. Villanova over/under: 141.5 points
- Penn vs. Villanova moneyline: Villanova- 1200, Penn +750
- Penn vs. Villanova best bet: Under 141.5
Spread
The way Villanova has played this season, it's impossible to trust it laying this number. Penn, however, has also not impressed enough to jump off the page as an obvious cover.
Moneyline
If anything, there's some value on Penn as a big underdog. Villanova's season is on the brink, so another upset could be in the cards.
Over/Under
This is where I find the real value on this game, taking the under between two deliberately paced, struggling offenses.
My Pick: Under 141.5
Penn vs. Villanova College Basketball Betting Preview
Penn Basketball
The majority of the chatter entering this game will focus on Villanova's struggles this season (more on that in a moment), yet Penn’s play — compared to expectations — has also been suspect.
The Quakers came into the season with eyes on the top half of the Ivy League. If their level of play from the first two weeks holds, that is not in the cards.
Penn’s first two games came against two of the five worst teams in all of Division I, per KenPom, NJIT and Maryland Eastern Shore. The Quakers escaped those games with nervy one- and three-point wins, respectively.
Penn then lost to an uninspiring Lafayette team and got routed by Saint Joe’s (it trailed by as many as 32 points).
Penn’s defense has been ugly, allowing 1.13 points per possession, while failing to clean the glass or force turnovers.
Offensively, Penn has been led by former Army transfer Ethan Roberts, yet it clearly misses some contributors from last season that graduated or went portaling.
In this matchup, the most notable name from that list would be Tyler Perkins, who had a strong freshman season for the Quakers before heading to the suburbs to play for Villanova.
Villanova Basketball
The post-Jay Wright era has turned absolutely dire for Villanova. It’s the third season under Wright’s hand-picked successor Kyle Neptune. Not only has he yet to lead the Cats to the NCAA Tournament, his teams continue to underperform on a regular basis.
In the three seasons under Neptune, Villanova has started 2-3 (or worse) twice and collected a third loss on or before December 3 in all three seasons.
Wright was the head coach at Villanova for 21 seasons. He had three losses on or before December 3 just once and never started 2-3 or worse.
This season, by KenPom’s metrics, Villanova has been the most disappointing team based on preseason expectations.
Here are the ten teams with the biggest decrease in KenPom's adjEM so far this season. pic.twitter.com/dHnJIk8pBV
— Trilly Donovan (@trillydonovan) November 18, 2024
The Wildcats trailed Lafayette in the second half (at home), lost by double-digits to Columbia (at home), lost to rival Saint Joe’s for the second straight season and lost a neutral site game to an unproven Virginia team.
In the five games on Villanova’s schedule, the Cats have looked right just once, their lone cover of the year in a win over NJIT.
So, what is actually going wrong on the court?
Fifth-year senior Eric Dixon should be on track to be an All-American, yet has a usage rate of 28.6, outside the top 150 nationally.
Instead, the offense is being initiated by guards Wooga Poplar and Jhamir Brickus, each of whom has a higher turnover rate than assist rate.
Brickus was a fun player at La Salle, but he has looked like a sub-six-foot guard unprepared to step up to power conference play. He is averaging three turnovers with a turnover rate north of 28%. That’s especially concerning considering the competition so far has been four low-majors, besides the Virginia game.
Villanova’s offense is disjointed, and its defense has been far worse.
Neptune entered this season with a warm seat. That cushion is on fire after five games.
Penn vs Villanova Betting Analysis
I’ve taken a personal oath against betting on Neptune’s Villanova Wildcats. Whether it’s an X’s and O’s issue, a problem of motivation or culture, or purely having less talent than expected, his teams simply don’t seem to answer the bell when they step on the floor.
If Penn had been showing signs of life entering this game, I’d be quick to jump on the Quakers, but that has not been the case.
I’m instead going to look toward the total. Both of these teams have struggled defensively, with some blame due to shooting luck. That could mean either or both sees some regression here, yet neither offense has been sharp.
These teams rank both among the 75 slowest in college hoops, and these intracity Big 5 games can take on a grind-it-out quality.
I’m going to wager on both offenses staying stagnant, keeping this game under the total.
