The Penn State Nittany Lions take on the Illinois Fighting Illini in Champaign, IL. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
Illinois is favored by 11 points on the spread with a moneyline of -600. The total is set at 163.5 points.
Here are my Penn State vs. Illinois predictions and college basketball picks for January 8, 2025.
Penn State vs Illinois Prediction
My Pick: Wait for Penn State +12
My Penn State vs Illinois best bet is on the Nittany Lions spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Penn State vs Illinois Odds, Lines, Pick
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11 -110 | 163.5 -112 / -108 | +440 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11 -110 | 163.5 -112 / -108 | -600 |
- Penn State vs Illinois spread: Illinois -11
- Penn State vs Illinois over/under: 163.5 points
- Penn State vs Illinois moneyline: Illinois -600, Penn State +440
- Penn State vs Illinois best bet: Wait for Penn State +12
My Penn State vs Illinois College Basketball Betting Preview
Schematically, these are two similar offenses predicated on ball-screen creation.
Illinois is more of a pure spread pick-and-roll scheme, ranking 17th nationally in 3-point rate and 39th in ShotQuality’s Spacing metric. The Kasparas Jakucionis-Tomislav Ivisic sets are nearly impossible to stop.
Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions try to get to the rim by rolling and cutting off Ace Baldwin Jr.'s dribble penetration. They’ve been pretty successful at that, ranking second nationally in paint points per game (44) behind Baldwin’s absurd 40% assist rate.
The difference between these two lies in their ball-screen coverage.
Penn State hedges and often blitzes ball screens, bringing aggressive on-ball pressure to force turnovers. Behind Mike Rhoades' coaching and Baldwin’s elite point-of-attack defense, the Lions rank in the top 10 nationally in defensive turnover rate.
Conversely, Illinois plays a more passive drop-coverage defense, letting Ivisic sag toward the rim while overplaying wing shooters. This ultimately forces on-ball middle-of-the-court creation, which is why the Illini rank second nationally in rim-and-3 rate allowed.
In theory, the Illini’s elite spacing and weak-side shooting could cook Penn State’s over-rotations. But the Nittany Lions make it absurdly difficult for opponents to get into their ball-screen sets, allowing the 15th-fewest pick-and-roll ball-handler sets per game (seven).
Ivisic will have to hit plenty of pick-and-pop 3s, and the Illini wings will have to play more downhill bully-ball.
Illinois is the best team in the Big Ten, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Brad Underwood cooks up this scheme. Still, I wouldn't be comfortable backing the Illini as double-digit favorites in a potentially uncomfortable game script.
On the other end of the court, it'll be difficult for Penn State to get to the rim against the Illini’s monstrous and effective interior defense. However, their drop coverage also invites ball-screen creation, and Baldwin could take advantage by working the mid-range and high-paint areas.
It’s also an interesting situational spot for Illinois, which could look sleepy coming home after back-to-back Pacific Northwest victories over Oregon and Washington. The new Big Ten creates all sorts of weird travel spots.
Meanwhile, Penn State is in a good bounce-back spot following a tough six-point semi-home loss to Indiana. The Nittany Lions are likely due for some positive shooting variance following their 3-for-21 (14%) 3-point shooting performance in that Sunday game.
All in all, I could talk myself into betting the Nittany Lions.
I don’t project much value on Penn State, but the Illini keep getting steamed in the markets, pushing the number up from 8.5 to 11.5 at some books.
I might keep waiting and try to catch a 12 with the Lions, which feels like far too many points in a Big Ten game (and is more in line with the analytic projections), especially considering the reasonable schematic and situational advantages for Rhoades, Baldwin and company.
