The Penn State Nittany Lions take on the Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing, MI. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
Michigan State is favored by 11 points on the spread with a moneyline of -520. The total is set at 155.5 points.
Here are my Penn State vs. Michigan State predictions and college basketball picks for January 15, 2025.
Penn State vs Michigan State Prediction
My Pick: Penn State +10 or Better if Ace Baldwin Jr. Plays
My Penn State vs Michigan State best bet is on the Nittany Lions spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Penn State vs Michigan State Odds
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11 -112 | 155.5 -112 / -108 | +390 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11 -108 | 155.5 -112 / -108 | -520 |
- Penn State vs Michigan State spread: Michigan State -11
- Penn State vs Michigan State over/under: 155.5 points
- Penn State vs Michigan State moneyline: Michigan State -520, Penn State +390
- Penn State vs Michigan State best bet: Penn State +10 or Better if Ace Baldwin Jr. Plays
Spread
I'm looking to back Penn State against the spread, but I need Ace Baldwin Jr. healthy to consider it a viable wager.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
Although my numbers show slight value on the under, I'm ultimately passing on an over/under bet, as Michigan State's transition offense and Penn State's aggressive defense could lead to a high pace and plenty of easy run-out buckets.
My Pick: Penn State +10 or Better if Ace Baldwin Jr. Plays
Penn State vs Michigan State College Basketball Betting Preview
Penn State is way overdue for a win after losing three straight. The Nittany Lions led Oregon by nine with under seven minutes left at home last Saturday, but they allowed the Cardiac Quack to pull off another comeback victory.
Of course, it’s hard to see Penn State winning without Baldwin, who missed the Ducks game with a back injury. He’s essential to Mike Rhoades’ two-way scheme, and he’s listed as questionable for Wednesday’s bout with Michigan State.
Meanwhile, Michigan State is overdue for a loss after winning nine straight, including its first five conference games. Wednesday could also serve as a lookahead spot for the Spartans ahead of Sunday’s home tilt with the dynamic and dominant Fighting Illini.
They also could be overvalued. Sparty has dominated by owning the rim on both ends of the court, but Big Ten opponents have shot 24% from 3, a wholly unsustainable mark considering they allow the league’s third-highest 3-point rate (41%).
But that might not matter against Penn State, which leans on Baldwin’s creation and playmaking out of ball screens while cutting off-ball and crashing the rim.
Sparty’s ball-screen coverage is surprisingly lackluster (.89 PPP allowed, 35th percentile), but they excel at rim denial (15 at-the-rim FGA per game, 87th percentile). Baldwin would have to lean into mid-range and high-paint creation to beat them, which he could do if he got on the court.
On the other end of the hardwood, Michigan State will also obliterate the rim, but Sparty prefers running in transition while crashing the offensive glass.
I don’t feel confident that the Nittany Lions will stop that, given they’re the Big Ten’s worst defensive rebounding team (65%) and worst transition-denial defense (17 possessions per game allowed).
However, while Jeremy Fears Jr., Tre Holloman and Jaden Akins have formed a rock-solid backcourt tandem, Sparty has run into a ball-handling issue — they rank 15th in the Big Ten in offensive turnover rate (19%).
That’s a problem against Penn State’s pressure-happy, hard-hedging defense. The Nittany Lions are ferocious on-ball defenders, leading the Big Ten in defensive turnover rate (21%). But, again, Penn State needs Baldwin and his two steals per game at the point of attack to capitalize on that game plan.
Ultimately, I like the situational spot for Penn State against a potentially overvalued Sparty squad, and I don’t mind the matchup if Baldwin suits up.
So, I’ll likely wait for the injury report before backing the Nittany Lions.
