The Penn State Nittany Lions take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in Piscataway, NJ. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on Peacock.
Rutgers is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -165. The total is set at 158.5 points.
Here are my Penn State vs. Rutgers predictions and college basketball picks for December 10, 2024.
Penn State vs Rutgers Prediction
My Pick: Rutgers -1 (Play to -3)
My Penn State vs Rutgers best bet is on the Scarlet Knights spread, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Penn State vs Rutgers Odds, Spread, Pick
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 158.5 -110 / -110 | +140 |
| Rutgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 158.5 -110 / -110 | -165 |
- Penn State vs Rutgers spread: Rutgers -3.5
- Penn State vs Rutgers over/under: 158.5 points
- Penn State vs Rutgers moneyline: Rutgers -165, Penn State +140
- Penn State vs Rutgers best bet: Rutgers -1 (Play to -3)
My Penn State vs Rutgers College Basketball Betting Preview
Penn State Basketball
Penn State pulled off the biggest win of the Mike Rhoades era with a dominant victory over Purdue last week in the Bryce Jordan Center. The win proved the Nittany Lions' 7-1 record isn't a mirage and that this Penn State team is legitimately good.
However, no test is tougher than a Big Ten road game.
One of the factors that put a wrench in Purdue's plan was Penn State's positional size, which slowed down the Boilers' offense. Purdue turned the ball over an insane 24 times but posted efficient scoring numbers — 61% on 2s and 38% on 3s. The Boilers just didn't get enough shots off early because of Penn State's pressure.
While Rhoades has developed a reputation as a defensive-minded coach, Penn State is balanced.
Offensively, Penn State ranks 25th in efficiency and 10th in effective field goal percentage. Defensively, the Nittany Lions boast the 37th-most efficient unit and rank fifth in turnover rate.
The only issue is that teams that succeed at breaking the press tend to get a decent look at perimeter jumpers, as opponents shoot 33% from 3. That's not a great or bad number; it's right around the middle of the pack nationally.
Ace Baldwin Jr is one of the most productive guards in the Big Ten, and his confidence must have soared after limiting Braden Smith. The fifth-year point guard has always been a defensive force, but he's posting a career-high 15.1 points and eight assists per game this year.
He will have a different test against a future NBA star from Rutgers.
Two other Nittany Lions who need to show up in this matchup are 7-footer Yanic Konan Niederhauser and Freddie Dilione V. Penn State found gems in Niederhauser and Dilione in the portal.
A former stalwart at Northern Illinois, Niederhauser is the ideal big in Rhoades' system since he has length and a ton of athleticism.
Meanwhile, Dilione is probably the pure, most talented Penn State player.
Rutgers Basketball
Rutgers needs some home cooking here to avoid a four-game losing skid that began during the Players Era Festival in Vegas.
In the two losses in Vegas to Alabama and Texas A&M, Rutgers led late in the second half in both games, so it's not like Rutgers looked overmatched by the SEC foes.
The good thing about the Scarlet Knights is turnovers don't impact them, despite being young. They give the ball away on just 14% of their possessions, and that ball security is a huge key against Penn State's pressure.
Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey are top-five recruits and future top-10 NBA draft choices for a reason.
The best player of the two is clearly Harper, who might be the most impactful freshman in America. He's averaging the fourth most points in the country (23 PPG) and 4.6 assists per night. I give my condolences to teams trying to contain the 6-foot-6 Harper once he gets downhill, as he accounts for 1.39 PPP on shots at the rim and 1.33 PPP on layups.
Very few teams can stay in front of Harper, so I'd imagine the smaller Baldwin might struggle.
Strangely, Rutgers has taken a notable decline on the defensive end, ranking 97th in defensive efficiency. While nobody expected Rutgers to be a top-10 defense in efficiency like last year, it will need to improve on that end.
It's pretty jarring how little production Rutgers receives from the contributing pieces. Nobody other than Harper and Bailey averages more than 8.3 points per game (Jeremiah Williams) and only two others (Lathan Sommerville and Jordan Derkack) average more than five points.
It's not like Harper isn't dishing the ball. These vets — like Williams, Derkack and others — have gotten countless clean looks from the freshman guard, but they aren't converting.
That will need to change, and somebody other than the two stars needs to emerge in conference play.
Penn State vs. Rutgers Betting Analysis
This spot lines up pretty well for Rutgers, which I think the market is too low on.
Meanwhile, the market won't get higher on Penn State. Fresh off a convincing win over Purdue, this feels like big letdown spot in Piscataway, where the fans will pack what was formerly known as the RAC.
The key to Rutgers covering is it keeping the 7-foot Niederhauser off the glass. Niederhauser is the primary rebounding threat for Penn State and will be the clear best big on the floor.
Rutgers' biggest problem is its interior play and lack of rebounding (285th in defensive rebounding rate).
In contrast, Penn State collects offensive rebounds on 33% of its misses, which figures to be a problem for the youthful Scarlet Knights.
I can't picture the Nittany Lions winning the rebounding battle, but containing Penn State to some degree could decide if this bet wins or not.
