The Penn State Nittany Lions take on the Wisconsin Badgers in Madison, WI. Tip-off is set for 1 p.m. ET on Peacock.
Wisconsin is favored by 11.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -600. The total is set at 154.5 points.
Here are my Penn State vs. Wisconsin predictions and college basketball picks for March 8, 2025.
Penn State vs Wisconsin Predictions, Picks
My Pick: Wisconsin -11.5 (Play to -13)
My Penn State vs Wisconsin best bet is on the Badgers spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Penn State vs Wisconsin Odds, How To Watch
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 154.5 -110o / -110u | +440 |
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 154.5 -110o / -110u | -600 |
- Penn State vs Wisconsin spread: Wisconsin -11.5
- Penn State vs Wisconsin over/under: 154.5 points
- Penn State vs Wisconsin moneyline: Wisconsin -600, Penn State +440
- Penn State vs Wisconsin best bet: Wisconsin -11.5 (Play to -13)
Spread
I'm backing the Badgers to cover the spread as double-digit home favorites.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the over/under.
My Pick: Wisconsin -11.5 (Play to -13)
Penn State vs Wisconsin NCAAB Betting Preview
On paper, this is a brutal matchup for Penn State.
The Nittany Lions are a downhill-driving, ball-screen-centric, rim-reliant offense that leverages Ace Baldwin Jr.’s creation to get to the basket.
While Wisconsin’s two-big drop-coverage scheme will funnel on-ball creation, it all goes toward the middle of the floor, as the Badgers are arguably the nation’s best rim-denial defense.
On the other end of the court, Mike Rhoades runs an aggressive hard-hedging ball-screen coverage defense that will create turnovers and force the ball out of the primary ball-handler’s hands.
But the downside to that is that the Nittany Lions allow a ton of unguarded weak-side catch-and-shoot opportunities.
Unfortunately for Penn State, the Badgers never turn the ball over and are elite in their spacing, secondary movement and catch-and-shoot creation.
Additionally, the Nittany Lions don't have a tremendous post-up defense (.91 PPP allowed, 29th percentile, per Synergy), and the Badgers often play through Steven Crowl and Nolan Winter in post-up sets (1.06 PPP, 95th percentile).
Wisconsin can run all its stuff here, while Penn State likely can’t.
From a situational perspective, Penn State is in a bounce-back spot after back-to-back losses, and the Nittany Lions are fighting for their Big Ten Tournament lives.
However, Wisconsin is tied with Purdue and Maryland for the third overall seed in the conference tournament, so a loss could drop the Badgers to the fifth seed, where they’d lose the coveted double-bye.
Therefore, I suspect both squads will be motivated, and the schematic matchup heavily favors Wisconsin.
I also don’t trust Penn State on the road, as the Nittany Lions rank 324th nationally in Haslametrics' away-from-home metric.
I’m banking on a double-digit Badger win here, and the projection markets are actually slightly more bullish than the sportsbooks on this matchup for Wisco:
- EvanMiya: Wisconsin -13.5
- KenPom: Wisconsin -13
- Haslametrics: Wisconsin -13.5
- Bart Torvik: Wisconsin -14.5
