The Pittsburgh Panthers take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville, MS. Tip-off is set for 9:15 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Mississippi State is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -205. The total is set at 149.5 points.
Here’s my Pitt vs. Mississippi State predictions and college basketball picks for December 4, 2024.
Pitt vs Mississippi State Prediction
My Pick: Lean Mississippi State -4
My Pitt vs Mississippi State best bet is on the Bulldogs spread, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Pitt vs Mississippi State Odds
| Pittsburgh Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 149.5 -108 / -112 | +170 |
| Mississippi St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 149.5 -108 / -112 | -205 |
- Pitt vs Mississippi State spread: Pitt -4.5
- Pitt vs Mississippi State over/under: 149.5 points
- Pitt vs Mississippi State moneyline: Pitt -205, Mississippi State +170
- Pitt vs Mississippi State best bet: Lean Mississippi State -4
Spread
I'm passing on this matchup with all the uncertainty, but I'd bet the Bulldogs if forced to pick a side.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the spread, but I lean toward the over. Pitt should earn mid-range buckets and could have a tough time defending Mississippi State's ball-screen actions without two versatile, switchable defensive pieces in Damian Dunn and Guillermo Diaz Graham.
My Pick: Lean Mississippi State -4
Pitt vs Mississippi State College Basketball Betting Preview
It’s tough to handicap this game with Pitt’s injuries.
Dunn is out indefinitely, and Diaz Graham is a game-time decision for Wednesday after exiting last Friday against Ohio State.
On a neutral court, I’d probably project the fully healthy Panthers as a slight favorite over the fully healthy Bulldogs, so I’d probably make the Bulldogs two-point favorites after throwing in KenPom’s projected three-point home-court advantage.
But how valuable are Dunn and Diaz Graham? EvanMiya projects Diaz Graham as the Panthers’ most valuable player by BPR, and the model projects the two as worth around 2.5 points to the spread, which would put us right around market value.
Both players are versatile defensive pieces, so I think their absence will be felt most on that end, especially if Ishmael Leggett and Jaland Lowe keep pouring in over 30 points per night out of the backcourt.
But Pitt walked into Columbus and stole a one-point overtime victory over the Buckeyes without either. But then again, Ohio State is wildly overvalued, and the Panthers needed a 15-0 second-half run to pull it off.
The Panthers run a relatively efficient ball-screen-heavy offense, but that could be a problem in this matchup.
Chris Jans is an elite defensive mind who rosters some of the most versatile defenders in the country, starting with the hyper-switchable, 6-foot-7 Cameron Matthews (three steals per game). The Bulldogs are typically among the nation’s best interior defenses, denying the rim better than anyone.
You generally have to beat the Bulldogs with jump shots. But the Panthers don’t mind doing that, given they adore pulling up in the mid-range.
The Bulldogs run a similar ball-screen-heavy scheme, and Jans has three legit ball handlers on staff: Josh Hubbard (19 points per game), Kanye Clary and Riley Kugel. KeShawn Murphy is an excellent roll-man partner, and Matthews can average eight points and three assists per night.
Pitt holds its own in ball-screen coverage, but the Bulldogs are much more rim-reliant on offense, and the Panthers are allowing almost 20 at-the-rim field goal attempts per game (36th percentile among D-I teams).
Even if they have been solid at preventing at-the-rim buckets (56% shooting allowed, 83rd percentile), the sheer number of interior opportunities allowed gives me cause for concern, and regression could be in the cards.
In the end, there’s too much uncertainty in this matchup to pick a side, and I price the matchup right around the market.
But if forced, I’d lay the points.
The Panthers' interior ball-screen coverage could be vulnerable here without two of its more versatile wing defenders. And the situational spot screams Mississippi State, with the Bulldogs looking to bounce back from a bad loss to Butler, while the Panthers could be in for a letdown game after grinding out a one-point overtime win.
It’s just tough to lay two possessions with a defense-first team, even with a bucket-getter like Hubbard on the roster.
