With less than a month left until Selection Sunday, only three ACC teams are considered "locks" to play beyond the conference tournament. Florida State is one of those teams. Pitt … is definitely not.
Tonight, the two will meet in Tallahassee, and understandably, oddsmakers have set a pretty distant margin between them.
No. 8 FSU (11-3 in conference) opened at -11.5 at most books — and -12 at some — over Pitt (6-9), and most bettors have been willing to lay the points with the superior team. The line movement, however, hasn't really reflected that.
Odds as of Tuesday morning. In Pennsylvania? Check out FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Pittsburgh vs. FSU Sharp Betting Picks
8 p.m. ET | ACC Network
As of the late morning, 64% of bettors have taken the home favorite, but they've generated just 28% of actual money hitting the spread. And why's that important?
Because larger wagers tend to come from a specific type of bettors: sharp ones.
As a result of the impressive bet-vs.-money discrepancy on Pitt, the spread has come down to a consensus +10.5. But that's not the only line movement this matchup has seen.
Opening totals ranged from 134 to 135.5 depending on timing, and while the market still sits in that range, a full look at the line history reveals that one side has been far more popular among sharp bettors.
Sixty-nine percent of bets are on the over, but once again, those bets have accounted for a far smaller percentage (12%, in this case) of money hitting the total.
Two Sports Insights Bet Signals — which track and record instances of sharp action in real time — have identified two waves of smart money hitting the under at 135.5, sending sportsbooks back to their current line.
Sharp angles: Pittsburgh (moved from +11.5 to +10.5), Under (moved from 135.5 to 134.5)
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