The Providence Friars take on the St. John's Red Storm in New York, New York. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
St. John's is favored by 14 points on the spread with a moneyline of -900. The total is set at 141.5 points.
Here’s my Providence vs. St. John's predictions and college basketball picks for February 1, 2025.
Providence vs St. John's Prediction
My Pick: Providence Team Total Under 62.5 (Play to 60)
My Providence vs St. John's best bet is on the Friars team total under, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Providence vs St. John's Odds
| Providence Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 141.5 -110 / -110 | +600 |
| St. John's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 141.5 -110 / -110 | -900 |
- Providence vs St. John's spread: St. John's -14
- Providence vs St. John's over/under: 141.5 points
- Providence vs St. John's moneyline: St. John's -900, Providence +600
- Providence vs St. John's best bet: Providence Team Total Under 62.5 (Play to 60)
Spread
St. John's should run and hide here, but a low scoring blowout could leave the door open for Providence to stay near the spread.
Moneyline
There's no value here.
Over/Under
I like Providence to stay under it's team total, but I worry about St. John's spoiling the game total in a blowout.
My Pick: Providence Team Total Under 62.5 (Play to 60)
Providence vs St. John's College Basketball Betting Preview
Providence Basketball
Providence lost star scorer Bryce Hopkins to a season-ending injury after he played in just three games this season, and the Friars have been in a rut without him in the lineup.
Overall, this Providence team plays a bland style of basketball on both ends of the floor. Offensively, the Friars don't shoot exceptionally well, turn the ball over too much and dribble too much. Defensively, they struggle to force turnovers and feel overly dependent on the shooting prowess of their opponent.
This has led to a murky season, with just one win over a top-50 KenPom opponent, which came in Hopkins' brief time on the court.
In Big East play, the Friars have won five games against bad teams and lost five games to better teams. Without any discernible skills to lean on, this team feels destined to plod along without radically overperforming or underperforming expectations.
A chance to dance in March is now firmly out of reach, with a minor miracle required over the last six weeks of the regular season.
With a team of mostly upperclassmen and no stand-outs, the Friars feel like a team lost in the woods.
St. John's Basketball
Rick Pitino's Johnnies have a chance to make real noise this season. The Red Storm have lost just one game since Thanksgiving and haven't lost a game by more than one possession all year.
St. John's has done this while spitting in the face of modern analytical thinking, scoring the third-highest percentage of points via 2-point buckets in the country.
St. John's doesn't take a lot of 3s, largely because the Red Storm aren't good at shooting them. Instead, RJ Luis Jr. and Kadary Richmond attack off the dribble, Zuby Ejiofor works in the post and everybody in a St. John's uniform swarms the offensive glass.
What this team lacks in the added value of 3-pointers, it earns back with second-chance points.
Even when that gambit doesn't work. St. John's is confident it can win games defensively. The Red Storm rank fourth in defensive efficiency and best in the Big East.
In 10 Big East games this season, St. John's is allowing 86.2 points per 100 possessions, per KenPom; second-best in the conference is Marquette at 98.1 points per 100 possessions.
That gap between St. John's and Marquette's defensive efficiency is roughly the same as the distance between second-place Marquette and seventh-place UConn. That 86.2 points mark is the best among power conference teams, second to just Southern in the SWAC.
No Big East team has allowed under 90 points per 100 possessions in conference play since the league was re-aligned in 2014, with 2016's national champion Villanova team setting the low-mark at 95.3.
That's the kind of defense that travels and can win any game. In January home games versus Butler and Xavier — plus a road game at Xavier — St. John's combined to shoot 4-of-49 from outside the arc. The Johnnies won all three games.
Providence vs. St. John's Betting Analysis
When the Friars got their first shot at St. John's, the game was close. St. John's escaped with a two-point win. That game came in Providence, while this one tips at Madison Square Garden, where things should be different.
Providence stayed close in the first meeting thanks to a 3-of-18 outside shooting day by the Johnnies (17%).
Elsewhere on the court, St. John's had the upper hand, nabbing 18 offensive rebounds and forcing 17 Providence turnovers.
This Providence offense isn't built to withstand the pressure faced by the St. John's defense. Providence is last in the Big East in assist rate and second-to-last in coughing up turnovers.
Playing with tunnel vision against this Red Storm squad is asking for it, especially without a high-level shotmaker to convert those assist-free looks.
I have trouble seeing Providence squeaking its way past the 60-point mark, and I even took an alternate team total under of 58.5 at +240 at DraftKings.
