The betting public has experienced its most profitable March Madness since 1979, when seeding began for the NCAA Tournament.
"The betting public" constitutes a spread that is the most popular for a given game. For instance, for UConn vs. Northwestern, the Huskies -13.5 was the betting public side, with roughly 73% of all bettors across the ecosystem riding on UConn to cover.
In these sorts of games, the public is 38-13 against the spread (75%) in the Round of 32 and Round of 64 for this year's NCAA Tournament. That's good for a $2,150 profit for a $100 per game bettor and an ROI of over 42%.
It's by far the best the public has done ATS. The next best feat was in the 2007 NCAA Tournament, when the public went 29-17-2 — even then, the ROI was half the number it is this season.
Before that, only two other tournaments yielded the public profitable Rounds of 32 and 64. In the 2009 NCAA Tournament, the public went 28-18-1 for a $831 overall profit.
And in the 2012 NCAA Tournament, the public went 27-24-1 for a $193 profit.
A massive hat tip to our director of research Evan Abrams for unearthing these historical trends.
This tournament, of course, has been marked by blowouts and high seed wins. It tracks with the pre-tournament narrative that the mid-major teams were historically worse this year, according to the advanced metrics.
Double digit favorites are 15-2 straight up and 14-3 against the spread — the best ATS mark in modern history.
And top-four seeds are 26-4 straight up and 21-9 against the spread — also the best ATS record in modern history.
