The Purdue Boilermakers take on the Houston Cougars in the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 10:09 p.m. ET on TBS/truTV.
Houston is favored by 8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -450. The total is set at 133.5 points.
Here are my Purdue vs. Houston predictions and college basketball picks for March 28, 2025.
Purdue vs Houston Prediction
My Pick: Houston -8 (Play to -9.5)
My Purdue vs Houston best bet is on the Cougars spread, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Purdue vs Houston Odds, Lines
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 133.5 -110o / -110u | +350 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 133.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
- Purdue vs Houston spread: Houston -8.5
- Purdue vs Houston over/under: 133.5 points
- Purdue vs Houston moneyline: Houston -450, Purdue +350
- Purdue vs Houston best bet: Houston -8 (Play to -9.5)
My Purdue vs Houston Sweet 16 Betting Preview
The Houston Cougars and Purdue Boilermakers, who have each made the Elite Eight in recent years, will battle for a spot in this year's Elite Eight.
The Cougars had a close call against Gonzaga in the Round of 32, but Purdue didn't break a sweat in its matchup.
The Boilermakers entered the Big Dance with one of the worst 2-point field defenses, allowing opponents to shoot 63% from two before the High Point game.
Since then, Purdue's interior defense has been packing it in to keep opponents from exposing its weak interior. High Point shot just 52% from 2, and McNeese State shot just 51% from 2.
Head coach Matt Painter could execute that plan since neither team shoots the ball well from deep.
That won't be the case for Houston. The Cougars are among the best perimeter shooting teams in America, connecting on 39% of shots from deep. L.J. Cryer is an electric scorer, Emanuel Sharp is a 40% shooter, and Milos Uzan also shoots over 40% from deep.
The Cougars are monsters in the turnover battle. They force turnovers at a 21.5% clip and turn the ball over just 14% of the time. Beating the Cougars is tough when they can force turnovers and slow down the game.
Nobody is beating Houston in a rock fight. That just doesn't happen.
So, if Purdue tries to pack the paint to limit J'Wan Roberts, then good luck stopping the Cougars' shooting. Roberts could have a huge game after scoring 18 points in the Round of 32. He's developed into a real offensive staple for Kelvin Sampson.
The Boilermakers are rebounding better than they did early in the year. But Purdue is giving up some offensive punch by sitting Cam Heide for Caleb Furst to maximize rebounding versus Houston's two-big system.
Even still, I see a sizable gap between Trey Kaufman-Renn and Furst's rebounding ability compared to Roberts, Ja'Vier Francis, and JoJo Tugler. Those three eat glass all day and have an extra layer of toughness.
Plus, Houston can contain TKR with its post-doubles on the bigs. He'll need to be a passer to have a good game, and that's not a strong suit for him.
Purdue is so reliant on TKR and Braden Smith combining for 40-50 points that I can't see the Boilers staying too close to Houston without it. Smith can still get his points, but Sampson is the best game planner in the sport. He'll look to make Purdue's third, fourth and fifth options beat them instead of the stars.
I thought Gonzaga was a tougher matchup for Houston than Purdue is. And the Cougars had the game in hand by 7-10 points for the entire second half until a few late turnovers changed the game.
If Houston can correct its late-game gaffes, this could be one of the bigger Sweet 16 blowouts.
