Purdue vs. Indiana Odds
One of college basketball’s best rivalries is Purdue-Indiana. Going back to the days of Gene Keady and Bobby Knight, this intrastate battle is usually exciting and closely contested.
Purdue has dominated this matchup in recent years, winning 10 of the last 11 regular-season meetings.
With both teams sitting at 3-3 in Big Ten Conference play, let's see who has the edge in Thursday’s meeting at Assembly Hall.
The Matchup
Purdue presents a difficult matchup for any team. The Boilermakers are anchored in the paint by 6-foot-10, 265-pound junior Trevion Williams (15.1 points per game, 9.5 rebounds). In just 26 minutes against Michigan State, he produced 29 points and nine rebounds. Williams has eight consecutive games with double-digit scoring along and four double-doubles this season.
Led by Williams, Purdue is also among college basketball’s best in rebounding, ranking 19th in defensive rebounding percentage and 75th in offensive rebounding efficiency, per KenPom.
The Boilermakers' offensive strength has been 3-point shooting, ranking 82nd in the country by shooting 35.8% as a team. This is an integral part of Purdue's offense, as it ranks 74th with 34.8% of their points generated from beyond the arc.
However, Big Ten opponents have prioritized limiting the Boilermakers from long range, so Purdue is only shooting 30.8% from beyond the arc in six conference games.
Head coach Matt Painter’s team was almost in free fall before an incredible 17-point comeback against Michigan State. Purdue has lost three of their four Big Ten games, each to teams with a strong interior presence that matched Williams. Iowa (Luka Garza), Rutgers (Myles Johnson) and Illinois (Kofi Cockburn). All three limited Williams’ impact on the interior, leading to comfortable wins and covers against the spread (ATS).
Indiana holds a similar roster construct, which bodes well against Purdue. Sophomore center Trayce Jackson-Davis (20.1 points, 9.3 rebounds) has been the centerpiece of the Hoosiers' attack. He anchors an Indiana offense that shoots a robust 52.2% from inside the arc.
Head coach Archie Miller has relied on his team's elite defense, especially with the recent absence of sophomore guard Armaan Franklin (12.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, 47.6% 3-point shooting). The Hoosiers have adhered to a slow, deliberate pace that ranks 292nd in adjusted tempo, per KenPom.
Indiana’s pack-line defense dictates a strong presence on the boards while minimizing the importance of offensive rebounding. The Hoosiers rank 85th in defensive rebounding and 274th in offensive rebounding efficiency. Junior forward Race Thompson (9.5 points, 6.6 rebounds) has two double-doubles this year, including 13 points and 11 rebounds in Indiana's 63-55 win over Maryland.
Senior Al Durham (11.1 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists) has increased his scoring in Franklin’s place, averaging 15.8 points and 3.5 assists over the past four games. Junior point guard Rob Phinisee (8.1 points. 2.5 assists) has also become a better facilitator with 28 points and 10 assists in the Hoosiers' last two.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Purdue was very fortunate to beat Michigan State and avoid a three-game losing streak. This will be the Boilermakers' fourth straight road game, and it comes against a motivated Indiana team that is ready to end the incredible streak of dominance against its biggest rival.
Since 2003, power conference teams playing their fourth straight road game have failed to cover at a 65% rate.
Both teams play at a snail’s pace, with Indiana (292nd) and Purdue (304th) near the bottom in adjusted tempo. The point totals in their last four meetings: 136, 106, 125 and 94. Both enter this matchup with less combined offensive talent and slower pace than recent memory.
I’m taking Indiana -3 to end its struggles against Purdue, as well as the under at 130.5 in what projects to be a low-scoring battle.
Pick: Indiana -3 (play up to -3.5) | Under 130.5
