The Purdue Boilermakers take on the Marquette Golden Eagles in Milwaukee, WI. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on FS1.
The Boilermakers are favored by 3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -166. The total is also set at 155 points.
Here’s my Purdue vs. Marquette predictions and college basketball picks for November 19, 2024.
Purdue vs Marquette Prediction
My Pick: Marquette -2.5
My Purdue vs Marquette best bet is on the Golden Eagles spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Purdue vs Marquette Odds
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 155 -110 / -110 | +140 |
| Marquette Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 155 -110 / -110 | -166 |
- Purdue vs Marquette spread: Marquette -3
- Purdue vs Marquette over/under: 155 points
- Purdue vs Marquette moneyline: Marquette -166, Purdue +140
- Purdue vs Marquette best bet: Marquette -2.5
Spread
I'm on the Golden Eagles spread.
Moneyline
There's not enough value on Marquette ML.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the total.
My Pick: Marquette -2.5 (Play to -4.5)
Purdue vs Marquette College Basketball Betting Preview
Purdue Basketball
You will notice there's a laundry list of similarities between Marquette and Purdue. The most noticeable one is both teams enter the game at 4-0.
A lot of my Marquette-related concerns relate to Purdue. The bulk of Purdue's scoring comes from the grouping of Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer. Those three combine for 51 points per game, and only two other players average more than seven points (Myles Colvin and C.J. Cox).
Kaufman-Renn displayed an array of post moves as he dissected Alabama's defense for 26 points in the Boilers' win last Friday. Unsurprisingly, Smith tallied a double-double with 17 points and 10 rebounds.
Purdue will need strong performances from Smith and "TKR" if it wants to secure a potential win and cover in Milwaukee.
Maybe it's not a coincidence that two of the few schools that didn't add a single transfer are getting almost zero bench production so far. Maybe it's not, but when several freshmen and unproven sophomores take big roles, it takes time for them to settle in.
Although the Boilermakers upset Alabama in West Lafayette, they didn't quell the defensive concerns — since the Crimson Tide added 1.18 PPP. That means three of Purdue's four opponents managed to score 1.00 PPP against its defense, which ranks 66th in KenPom's defensive efficiency.
Purdue will likely struggle to defend bigger athletic teams all year.
The bad news here is Marquette is one of the more athletic teams on Purdue's schedule.
Marquette Basketball
I wondered how Marquette's in-house development approach would work for Shaka Smart.
So far, it's worked, as Marquette enters this home contest versus Purdue with an unblemished 4-0 record.
Marquette can thank future All-American guard Kam Jones for its early-season success. Jones has seamlessly transitioned to the point guard role, averaging 24 points on 64% shooting with five assists. His most recent standout performance came via a 28-point outing in a road win over Maryland.
He's arguably the best guard in the country and he could lead Marquette to a win on any night.
Who else can the Golden Eagles rely on for scoring? The trio of David Joplin, Chase Ross and Stevie Mitchell. Those three account for over 35 points per game, but the most trustworthy scorer is Ross, who averages 13 points with elite defense.
Joplin has gotten up plenty of shots this year but is shooting just 31% from the field and 21% from 3. I'm not entirely stunned, as Joplin is a fairly hot-and-cold shooter.
Marquette is an incredibly dangerous offense if the good Joplin shows up, but you just never know which Joplin is there.
The problem is Marquette is effectively getting zero bench-scoring production — besides Royce Parham. If the starters struggle, it's doomsday for the Golden Eagles.
I have two big concerns in this game for Marquette: rebounding and defending the pick-and-roll.
At least Purdue doesn't have Zach Edey anymore, but Marquette's starting "center" is Ben Gold, who grabs just three rebounds per game. He's more of a stretch-forward type rather than a bruising rebounder, which seems to be what Marquette is missing.
The Golden Eagles rank 216th in defensive rebounding percentage and 193rd in offensive rebounding percentage.
As for the pick-and-roll problems, it's particularly problematic against Smith, who always has the ball on a string, looking to probe the defense.
According to Synergy, the Golden Eagles rank "below average" when defending pick-and-roll ball handlers.
We will see if Smith can exploit the Golden Eagles' defense.
Purdue vs Marquette Betting Analysis
The one key advantage that was in Purdue's back pocket against Alabama was the Mackey Arena fans. They were so wild that it became difficult to hear the whistle at times.
Maybe the Purdue fans travel a bit, but the crowd will overwhelmingly be rooting on the Golden Eagles. The home court advantage — paired with the dreaded letdown spot — gives Marquette the edge in a game where I rate the teams pretty evenly.
I just don't see the circumstances being in Purdue's favor.
