The Purdue Boilermakers take on the Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing, Michigan. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on Peacock.
Michigan State is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -165. The total is set at 148 points.
Here are my Purdue vs. Michigan State predictions and college basketball picks for February 18, 2025.
Purdue vs Michigan State Prediction
My Pick: Michigan State -3.5 (Play to -4.5)
My Purdue vs Michigan State best bet is on the Spartans spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Purdue vs Michigan State Odds, Spread
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 148 -110 / -110 | +140 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 148 -110 / -110 | -165 |
- Purdue vs Michigan State spread: Michigan State -3.5
- Purdue vs Michigan State over/under: 148 points
- Purdue vs Michigan State moneyline: Michigan State -165, Purdue +140
- Purdue vs Michigan State best bet: Michigan State -3.5 (Play to -4.5)
My Purdue vs Michigan State NCAAB Betting Preview
Michigan State was dangerously close to dropping a fourth game in its last five at Illinois. However, the Spartans toppled the overvalued Illini using defense and interior scoring.
Meanwhile, Purdue couldn't stop Wisconsin in the second half, losing by 10 and suffering its second straight loss.
I struggle to buy into Purdue due to its reliance on the trio of Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer.
Smith scored fewer than 10 points for a second time in three games against Wisconsin, but he tossed 10+ assists in two of the three. He's the best point guard in the country and will find ways to impact the game no matter what.
To me, it comes down to what Matt Painter gets from C.J. Cox, Myles Colvin, Camden Heide and Caleb Furst. Those are the other four big-minute getters in Purdue's rotation.
Cox scored 13 versus Wisconsin, so he may turn that into some momentum.
It's the complete inverse of Michigan State's situation — the Spartans don't have a bonafide "guy." Instead, they have eight or nine players who can lead them in scoring on any given night.
Moreover, Purdue's defense, which is pivotal to its success, has cratered of late. The Boilers have allowed 1.08 PPP or more in three of their last four contests, including 1.45 to Wisconsin.
Making matters worse, the Badgers shot 20-of-22 from inside the arc.
Rim protection continues to plague Purdue, as opponents shoot 54.9% from 2 (314th nationally).
The one area the Boilermakers' defense excels at is forcing turnovers, poking the ball away 18.9% of the time. Even the ability to force turnovers has disappeared lately, though, as they've taken the ball away 11 or fewer times in three of the past four games.
Everything for Michigan State begins defensively. It's not just about getting stops, but the Spartans turn those stops into the ideal Tom Izzo offense.
The Spartans are 13th in KenPom's defensive efficiency. They limit teams to just 28% from 3 (eighth nationally) and 47.3% from inside the arc (50th).
So, why is getting stops the key to unlocking Coach Izzo's offense? Well, it's easier to get running in transition off of rebounds. Michigan State loves to push it, as 20% of the Spartans' offensive possessions come in transition, and they score 1.083 PPP on those possessions (per Synergy).
Conversely, Purdue gets taken advantage of in transition, allowing 1.046 PPP (41st percentile).
I also don't worry much about Purdue switching to zone to exploit Michigan State's shooting woes, as its rivals from Bloomington did. The Boilermakers have just one possession of zone under their belt all year.
Moreover, in Saturday's win over Illinois, Michigan State's shooting problems turned around, as it connected on 5-of-12 shots from deep.
Do I have faith in that starting a trend of better shooting? No. Jaxon Kohler made 4 3s, and Xavier Booker made one. The guards still can't shoot, and that's the only thing holding Michigan State back.
Also, Michigan State has the bodies to contain Kaufman-Renn. It begins with 7-footer Szymon Zapala, 6-foot-11 Carson Cooper and 6-foot-9 Kohler. If Michigan State can contain TKR before he gets to his comfortable right hand, it could make him a fish out of water.
I like Michigan State to win the interior battle, grab offensive rebounds and limit TKR, which should lead to a cover in front of the friendly Breslin Center crowd.
