The Purdue Boilermakers take on the Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on Peacock.
Michigan is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -148. The total is set at 150 points.
Here are my Purdue vs. Michigan predictions and college basketball picks for February 11, 2025.
Purdue vs Michigan Prediction
My Pick: Michigan -2.5 (Play to -3)
My Purdue vs Michigan best bet is on the Wolverines spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Purdue vs Michigan Odds
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -115 | 150 -110 / -110 | +124 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -105 | 150 -110 / -110 | -148 |
- Purdue vs Michigan spread: Michigan -2.5
- Purdue vs Michigan over/under: 150 points
- Purdue vs Michigan moneyline: Michigan -148, Purdue +124
- Purdue vs Michigan best bet: Michigan -2.5 (Play to -3)
Spread
I like Michigan up to -3.
Moneyline
I don't have a play on the moneyline, but Michigan should win and cover the spread.
Over/Under
I don't have a play on the total.
My Pick: Michigan -2.5 (Play to -3)
Purdue vs Michigan College Basketball Betting Preview
Do you think Michigan is upset about how the game versus Purdue in West Lafayette went? I imagine so. That game was a wrap before the second media timeout, so Michigan will have an extra ounce of anger heading into this revenge spot in Ann Arbor.
Michigan is now 10-2 in Big Ten play, so this game will be pivotal to its quest of winning the Big Ten. That path is very much alive, but the road gets tougher if the Wolverines lose to Purdue again.
The key to this handicap is pretty simple: Michigan could be doomed if it isn't more careful with the ball. The Wolverines have a robust 20% turnover rate (332nd nationally) and gave the ball away over 22 times in the first meeting.
The Wolverines can counteract Purdue's dominant defense by feeding the ball to their bigs, Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf.
I know Dusty May loves the big-to-big pick-and-roll, but Purdue contained it better than any other Big Ten squad. In the second meeting, the play should be dumping the ball to Goldin, who could dominate versus Purdue's porous interior (opponents shoot 53.9% on 2s).
That wasn't possible in the first meeting, as the Mackey Arena crowd flustered Michigan, and the lead ballooned so quickly that it began to settle for bad 3s.
Shooting is another big key for the home team. Michigan is very modern on offense, as most of its shots come from deep or at the rim. The Wolverines attempt 3s at a 44% clip and connect on 36% of them (67th nationally).
They're even better from 2-point range, hitting on 59% (fifth nationally). Establishing the paint to open up the rest of the floor will make a huge difference.
It's a different era for Purdue with Zach Edey out of the fold, but one thing remains true — Purdue is arguably the best team in Big Ten.
The Boilermakers' defense is more aggressive and more athletic, but it isn't nearly as good at defending inside. It's a real give-and-take without the Edey drop coverage. They went from a 13% turnover rate last year — a top-20 mark in America — to a 19% turnover rate.
While Braden Smith is the best point guard in America and Trey Kaufman-Renn is a top-tier Big Ten player, it's worrisome that Purdue relies so much on three players.
The cupboard is pretty bare beyond Smith, TKR and Fletcher Loyer, who combine for nearly 50 points per game.
Smith is a special talent with his 16.1 points and 8.8 assists per night, but Michigan has to contain him in pick-and-rolls.
Nobody else on Purdue's roster averages above 6.3 points, so if the "Big Three" doesn't go off, it's doomsday unless the defense goes crazy
I love the schematic matchup if Michigan turns the ball over 14 or fewer times, as that feels like a magic number.
I don't foresee TKR and Caleb Furst being the answer to containing the Goldin/Wolf combo, so give me the home team.
