The Purdue Boilermakers take on the NC State Wolfpack in La Jolla, CA, as part of the Rady Children's Invitational. Tip-off is set for 3 p.m. ET on FS1.
Purdue is favored by 7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -278. The total is set at 146 points.
Here’s my Purdue vs. NC State predictions and college basketball picks for November 28, 2024.
Purdue vs NC State Prediction
My Pick: Over 145.5
My Purdue vs NC State best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Purdue vs NC State Odds
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 146 -110o / -110u | -278 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 146 -110o / -110u | +225 |
- Purdue vs NC State spread: Purdue -7
- Purdue vs NC State over/under: 146 points
- Purdue vs NC State moneyline: Purdue -278, NC State +225
- Purdue vs NC State best bet: Over 145.5
Spread
My gut wants me to bet Purdue, but the market has priced this well. I cannot lay 6.5 or 7.
Moneyline
Purdue moneyline as a piece in a parlay would make sense to me. I firmly believe the Boilers will get the victory.
Over/Under
The over is what catches my eye. These are two prolific offenses clashing in a smaller gym, which should have strong sight lines for both teams' shooters.
My Pick: Over 145.5
Purdue vs NC State College Basketball Betting Preview
Purdue Basketball
The Boilermakers’ run to the national title game was a magical one for both Matt Painter and the program. Following that up without Zach Edey is a tall task, but a stellar triumvirate has emerged to give Purdue a fighting chance to return to the sport’s greatest stage.
Braden Smith has continued in his role as one of the nation’s truly elite pick-and-roll operators, and much to the surprise of many pundits, his playmaking has not taken a hit whatsoever without the 7-4 man in the middle. In fact, Smith now leads the country in assist rate, per KenPom, dishing out helpers on half of Purdue’s baskets when he’s on the court.
The primary beneficiaries are Trey Kaufman-Renn, Purdue’s newest dominant interior scorer, and Fletcher Loyer, who has been one of the nation’s deadliest shooters thus far this year. Kaufman-Renn is less of a physically superior steamroller than Edey, but his strength, footwork and touch make him nearly as formidable on the block.
In its two biggest tests, Purdue’s defense has been the issue. The Boilermakers surrendered 1.12 points per possession in a loss at Marquette, and Alabama registered 1.15 PPP in Purdue’s massive home win two weeks ago. Additionally, the supporting cast around the “big three” has been wildly inconsistent – Myles Colvin, Camden Heide and others must assert themselves as reliable pieces for Purdue to hit its ceiling.
NC State Basketball
Another 2024 Final Four squad, NC State entered this season with significantly lower expectations than Purdue. The Wolfpack simply want to get back to the NCAA Tournament – and do so without needing to win five games in five days at the ACC Tournament.
Speaking of five games – this game marks NC State’s first foray away from Raleigh after five buy games at home. The Wolfpack have only faced one opponent inside the KenPom top 200 – and that would be #199, William & Mary. Granted, they’ve taken care of business – 5-0 straight up, 3-2 against the spread – but Purdue looms as a much bigger test.
One could argue the Wolfpack are somewhat overvalued at this point due to opponents’ frigid shooting. NC State’s five adversaries have combined to shoot a ridiculous 22.5% from deep, inflating the Wolfpack’s defensive numbers.
Offensively, the Wolfpack have played through their bigs. Ben Middlebrooks and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield are no DJ Burns, but they are adept interior scorers who excel at getting to the free throw line. Veteran guard Jayden Taylor has emerged as a slashing menace, and Bowling Green transfer Marcus Hill has dominated mid-major competition with his own off-the-bounce game.
Purdue vs NC State Betting Analysis
Purdue is the more battle-tested squad by a drastic margin. That could give the Boilermakers an extra edge here, and the Smith/Loyer backcourt is far more trustworthy at this point than Taylor/Hill/Michael O’Connell. Unfortunately, the -6.5 line is a little out of my price range.
Instead, I like the over here. Both teams have better offenses than defenses, and with the potential shooting regression lurking in NC State’s defensive numbers – against one of the nation’s best perimeter shooting teams – I’m expecting an efficient outing for both squads. Pace is a concern, as Purdue has not run as much this year as expected without Edey, but NC State will certainly push it in transition.
The extra boost needed for me to back the OVER: the venue. This game will be played in tiny LionTree Arena in La Jolla, and the smaller venue should be a shooter’s paradise. The four games at this venue last year went 2-2 on the total, so no strong indicator, but combined with the two offenses, I think this contest is primed to see 150+ points.
I would take this up to 148 points, in the event that the market bets this one as well.
