The Purdue Boilermakers take on the Oregon Ducks in Eugene, OR. Tip-off is set for 3 p.m. ET on NBC.
Oregon is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -150. The total is set at 147.5 points.
Here are my Purdue vs. Oregon predictions and college basketball picks for January 18, 2025.
Purdue vs Oregon Prediction
My Pick: Oregon -2.5 (Play to -4)
My Purdue vs Oregon best bet is on the Ducks spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Purdue vs Oregon Odds, Lines, Pick
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 147.5 -110 / -110 | +125 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 147.5 -110 / -110 | -150 |
- Purdue vs Oregon spread: Oregon -2.5
- Purdue vs Oregon over/under: 147.5 points
- Purdue vs Oregon moneyline: Oregon -150, Purdue +125
- Purdue vs Oregon best bet: Oregon -2.5 (Play to -4)
Purdue vs Oregon College Basketball Betting Preview
Purdue Basketball
When Purdue lost back-to-back games to Auburn and Texas A&M in December, West Lafayette felt like it was doomsday.
As it turns out, that was more emblematic of the SEC's dominance than the Boilermakers coming down to earth.
Since then, Purdue has won six straight games, including three Big Ten road games.
Conversely, none of the wins are versus teams inside the top 40 of KenPom. So, the schedule has been weaker.
If Washington had talent outside Great Osobor, it had enough to beat Purdue earlier this week. Purdue trailed by double-digits in the first half but rattled off 47 second-half points. Meanwhile, Osobor erupting for 26 points exposed some concerns about the Boilers' interior.
Matt Painter shifted the lineup by inserting Caleb Furst into a starting role next to Trey Kaufman-Renn. While Furst provides another big body, he can't shoot. Since TKR is also a non-shooter, there is some crowded floor spacing since teams can leave one of the two. Opponents tend to expose Purdue's interior, shooting 52% on 2s.
Purdue is so reliant on Braden Smith, Kaufman-Renn, and Fletcher Loyer. That trio accounts for 47 points per game, and only two other players — Myles Colvin and CJ Cox — average more than six points per game.
In short, Purdue cannot win if the Big Three doesn't perform like a Big Three.
Smith should get more love. He's probably the best point guard in the country, averaging 15.1 points and nine assists per game. He also turns the ball over just 2.8 times per game. He's the catalyst for Purdue's success but needs to be more aggressive as a scorer.
Oregon Basketball
Oregon enters play at 13-2, with the two losses coming in Eugene.
One of the losses was just lousy luck. Dylan Andrews banked a 27-footer to beat the Ducks, so I don't take too much stock there. The other, Illinois, just crushed Oregon from tip to finish, but it won three straight since the loss.
The Ducks are at their best when trailing late in the second half. In wins over Portland, Oregon State, Ohio State, Penn State and Texas A&M, they stormed back from eight-plus point deficits with 10 minutes or less.
I'm sure Dana Altman doesn't want his Ducks to keep digging deep holes, but whatever works.
I'm buying Oregon stock. The primary reason is that the Ducks managed to hang around in the first six weeks despite Jackson Shelstad playing poorly. That's changed lately, as the Ducks star guard scored 17-plus points in three straight on 22-for-31 shooting and 12-for-16 from downtown.
Oregon has terrific guard play next to Shelstad — Keeshawn Barthelemy and TJ Bamba can erupt in the scoring column just like Shelstad, while Jadrian Tracey is a rugged defender.
Each of the Ducks' top-eight rotation players averages six or more points per game, which is a huge feather in their cap compared to Purdue. They can also play different styles — a more physical one with Supreme Cook at the five or a more skilled one with Nate Bittle at the five.
Though Oregon is excellent, it isn't elite at anything. That's not bad since the Ducks don't have a glaring weakness, either. Oregon is best suited to playing quicker due to its speedy guards and 21st-ranked offensive efficiency. I could see the offense getting even better.
Purdue vs. Oregon Betting Analysis
Oregon is solid defensively, ranking 40th in defensive efficiency. Bittle has a 7.2% block rate (per KenPom), so he can use his lengthy frame to swat shots against TKR.
This is a rough spot for Purdue. It is the second leg of the Pacific Northwest swing in the new-look Big Ten, and Purdue will face a team much better than Washington. Oregon can beat good teams — just ask Alabama and Texas A&M.
The number should be bigger due to the spot.
