Oftentimes sharp bettors find themselves picking out games that go unnoticed by the recreational gambler. Casual bettors want to bet the games they watch, which don't always match up with the ones that pros find valuable. Tonight, though, the two worlds are colliding.
Purdue will travel to No. 19 Michigan tonight (7 p.m. ET, FS1) for the most heavily bet game on the slate so far, and sharps have had something to say about the betting lines.
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Purdue vs. Michigan Betting Odds, Sharp Action
- Spread: Michigan -5
- Over/under: 130.5
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- TV: FS1
The Wolverines are 5-point favorites in Ann Arbor, and most bettors have been happy to lay that spread with the ranked home team. That's helped drive a bit of movement from the earliest opening numbers, but the more significant movement has come on the over/under.
Depending on timing, sportsbooks opened the total anywhere from 124.5 to 128.5, with earlier books on the lower end of that spectrum. Whatever the case, just about every shop has come up from its opener.
The consensus now sits at 130.5 — a 6-point move in some cases — as 57% of bettors have taken the over. But as far as betting percentages go, and especially those on overs (which are usually pretty popular), that's not really an eye-catching figure, and probably not one that would produce such a drastic move on its own.
It does help when the 57% backing is generating 75% of actual money, though. For one, that obviously creates a greater monetary liability, but perhaps more importantly, it reveals how bigger bettors are playing the total. And where there are bigger bets, there are usually sharper ones.
A Sports Insights Bet Signal — an indicator of market activity caused by sharp action — hit the over late this morning, suggesting an influx pro money while the total was at 128.
There's yet to be any sign of buyback on the under, as the only consensus movement so far as been upward.
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 125 to 130.5)
