The Tennessee Volunteers are sharp picks to win it all by bracketologists everywhere on account of their artificially low seed and world-class defense.
They're a good team that has beaten the likes of Arizona, Auburn and Kentucky (twice), this season; don't be surprised to see them hanging around come late March.
Still, there's an against-the-spread (ATS) system specific to their coach, who smart bettors love to fade this time of year.
Rick Barnes is 1-12 ATS over his last 13 March Madness contests, which includes games coached with Tennessee and Texas, the latter stint where he reigned from 1998 to 2015.
That ATS record is since 2010. If you had $100 on every NCAA Tournament team Barnes has coached since then, you'd be down -$1,105. Fading Barnes over that time frame, meanwhile, would have netted $991 at a 12-1 clip.
Since the late oughts, Barnes-led teams have advanced out of the tournament's opening weekend just once, when the 2019 Volunteers beat No. 15 seed Colgate and No. 10 seed Iowa in OT before losing to No. 13-seeded Purdue in the Sweet 16. Tennessee was the No. 2 seed that season.
By the way, Barnes failed to cover all three of those games.
Barnes and his teams haven't covered an NCAA Tournament game since 2018, when they beat Wright State 73-47 as 12-point favorites.
It's been ATS losses since that and for the eight seasons before that game against Wright State.
The No. 3 seed Volunteers face off against No. 14 Longwood on Thursday at 2:45 p.m.
Tennessee's a 17.5-point favorite against the Big South Conference champions.
