Casual bettors overvalue recent performance. It's a simple truth, one that you should internalize in assessing market prices.
So, after No. 7 seeded Michigan State beat No. 2 seeded Marquette, the Spartans are now favorites against Kansas State in the Sweet 16 from Madison Square Garden.
How? Well, recency bias.
Let's break down the numbers.
Michigan State — only the 69th-best team in field goal defense — somehow held Marquette to their fourth-worst performance from the field this season.
Michigan State — a team that lives and dies by the three-pointer — won by nine despite shooting 2-for-16 from the arc against Marquette. The Spartans were previously 12-2 when they shot 40% or better from three and 9-10 when shooting worse.
And the advanced metrics haven't been all that bullish on Michigan State. Every respected ranking has Michigan State as either the third- or fourth-worst team remaining in a field of 16.
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Kansas State is the better team here, primarily on defense. The Wildcats are 15th in the country in three-point goal percentage defense (29.7%). That bodes well against a team that relies on the long ball.
And the Wildcats are 47th in the country in overall field goal percentage defense (47.5%).
That's compared to the Spartans, who are 69th in three point goal percentage defense (31.9%) and 69th in field goal percentage defense (48.1%).
Offensively, Kansas State is far more consistent, with solid shooting percentages from everywhere on the floor, not just from three.
Currently, Michigan State is getting credit for having Tom Izzo and for beating Marquette. While the former may be worth — at most — a half-point on the spread, the latter isn't worth much, in my mind.
Expect Michigan State to regress toward the mean tonight and show its true, unremarkable colors.
Take Kansas State +110 at BetMGM.
