My favorite Final Four betting stat is this: Jim Larranaga is the most profitable coach as an underdog over the last three years.
His Hurricanes have covered 33 of 45 games. One of the reasons why? They're never out of it and they almost always know how to close.
In their seven losses this year, they only lost a single game by more than seven points (Maryland). Their other losses were by 1 (Florida State), 2 (NC State, Virginia and Duke), 6 (Georgia Tech) and 7 (Duke).
UConn is getting a lot of love and understandably so. Their average margin of victory — 22.5 points — is by far the largest of any of the Final Four teams remaining.
Beating Iona by 24 and Saint Mary's by 15 was maybe expected — but Arkansas by 23 and Gonzaga by 28? Definitely not. These margins have been worth a couple points on the spread and are the reason why the Huskies are a 5.5 point favorite over Miami.
But they're overpriced in this spot. These two teams are closer than the eye test indicates — or even the advanced metrics. Anyone who's seen Miami this season will attest to it.
I'm not saying UConn won't win, but I'm taking the Hurricanes +5.5 at BetMGM.
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