The Saint Mary's Gaels take on the Loyola Marymount Lions in Los Angeles, CA. Tip-off is set for 11 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Saint Mary's is favored by 13.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1000. The total is set at 132.5 points.
Here are my Saint Mary's vs. Loyola Marymount predictions and college basketball picks for February 27, 2025.
Saint Mary's vs Loyola Marymount Prediction
My Pick: LMU +13.5 (Play to +12)
My Saint Mary's vs Loyola Marymount best bet is on the Lions, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Saint Mary's vs LMU Odds
| Saint Mary's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -108 | 132.5 -112o / -108u | -1000 |
| Loyola Marymount Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -112 | 132.5 -112o / -108u | +650 |
- Saint Mary's vs Loyola Marymount spread: Saint Mary's -13.5
- Saint Mary's vs Loyola Marymount over/under: 132.5 points
- Saint Mary's vs Loyola Marymount moneyline: Saint Mary's -1000, LMU +650
- Saint Mary's vs Loyola Marymount best bet: LMU +13.5 (Play to +12)
Spread
I'm backing the Lions to cover as double-digit home 'dogs.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the over/under.
My Pick: LMU +13.5 (Play to +12)
Saint Mary's vs LMU College Basketball Betting Preview
This is the most obvious letdown spot for Saint Mary’s.
The Gaels clinched the one seed in the WCC Tournament with a seven-point win over Gonzaga in Spokane last Saturday.
On Thursday, they’ll play the second leg of a two-game road trip against the lowly Loyola Marymount Lions in Los Angeles.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Gaels look sluggish and sloppy in the sleepiest spot ever.
From a general schematic perspective, I can’t make a case for the Lions’ offense. They run a pace-and-post scheme that should have zero success against Randy Bennett’s dominant transition and rim defense. There’s a reason why Loyola Marymount scored 56 points in the first head-to-head meeting.
However, I can make a case for the Lions’ defense, which isn’t half bad. They mainly run drop coverage anchored by Jevon Porter, so they’re good in catch-and-shoot denial. However, they've also been well above average in rim denial and post-up defense.
I think they can hang with a relatively rim-and-post-reliant Gaels squad.
So, how did the Gaels score 81 points in the first head-to-head meeting?
They only shot 16-for-39 (41%) from 2-point range, including 13-for-31 (42%) in the paint, so Loyola’s interior defense held firm. But the Gaels shot 8-for-18 (44%) from 3 and drew a ridiculous 28 foul shots, making a whopping 25 (89%).
I could see some slight 3-point shooting regression for Saint Mary’s in the rematch, but I’m mainly banking on a better whistle for the Lions on their home court. They rarely foul because of their passive drop-coverage scheme (63rd nationally in free-throw rate allowed, per KenPom), so I highly doubt the Gaels will generate a 45% free-throw-attempt rate in the rematch.
Ultimately, I could see this game playing out as a low-scoring grinder, especially after the first head-to-head matchup was played at a 60-possession pace.
A lower-possession, lower-scoring game script puts a premium on points, and I trust in Loyola Marymount's defense to keep it close behind some better variance and results.
I'm banking on the Lions keeping it close as double-digit home 'dogs against the (hopefully) super-sleepy Gaels.
