The Saint Mary's Gaels take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers in Sioux Falls, SD. Tip-off is set for 1 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
The Gaels are favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -180. The total is also set at 142 points.
Here’s my Saint Mary's vs. Nebraska predictions and college basketball picks for November 17, 2024.
Saint Mary's vs Nebraska Prediction
My Pick: Nebraska +3.5
My Saint Mary's vs Nebraska best bet is on the Cornhuskers spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Saint Mary's vs Nebraska Odds
| Saint Mary's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -108 | 142 -108 / -112 | -180 |
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -112 | 142 -108 / -112 | +150 |
- Saint Mary's vs Nebraska spread: Saint Mary's -3.5
- Saint Mary's vs Nebraska over/under: 141.5 points
- Saint Mary's vs Nebraska moneyline: Saint Mary's -180, Nebraska +150
- Saint Mary's vs Nebraska best bet: Nebraska +3.5
Spread
I'm rolling with the Huskers on the spread.
Moneyline
I'd like a little more value here. I'd take the Huskers if I can get +150.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the total.
My Pick: Nebraska +3.5
Saint Mary's vs Nebraska College Basketball Betting Preview
Saint Mary's Basketball
The Gaels faced a string of tough mid-majors to begin the year, beating Towson and Chattanooga by 12 or fewer and handling Akron with ease.
Strangely enough, Saint Mary's lost both games it played against high-major foes in the non-conference last season, falling to Xavier and Utah. Those were two non-NCAA Tournament teams.
Will the Gaels' fortune against high-majors change in South Dakota? We will find out.
Augustas Marciulionis received the WCC Player of the Year award last year, but he still doesn't get enough love for his dynamic point guard play. In three games, the Lithuanian senior boasts an impressive 16.7 points and 8.7 assists per night.
The only problem in Marciulionis' game is he doesn't shoot it well.
Shooting woes aren't just a problem for the Gaels' star — it's a team-wide issue. The only player on Saint Mary's roster who's shooting above 33% from 3 is freshman guard Mikey Lewis, who's injected life into SMC's offense during some dull spells.
He still isn't a starter — that's Jordan Ross — but Lewis is a great player early in his career.
The biggest advantage for Saint Mary's is on the interior with Paulius Murauskas and Mitchell Saxen. A transfer who played sparse minutes at Arizona, Murauskas has collected a double-double in all three games for Saint Mary's.
Saxen needs to play better, though. He averaged 11 points the past two seasons, but foul trouble has limited Saxen to 7.6 points per game in 2024-25. He's fouled out of two of Saint Mary's three games so far, so that will need to change.
However, facing Nebraska — which has a mix of skill and athleticism on the interior — could be an issue for Saxen.
Most people consider Saint Mary's a team that wins on the defensive end. That's a fair assessment since the Gaels finished top-20 in defensive efficiency in four consecutive years.
The Gaels are more offensive-driven this year, though, ranking 20th in offensive efficiency, per KenPom, compared to 75th defensively.
So, why is Saint Mary's worse defensively?
It replaced an elite defender in Joshua Jefferson with an offensive-minded player in Murauskas. It might not be all bad since the Gaels have been victim of teams getting hot from deep, which isn't something Nebraska has done this year.
Nebraska Basketball
The Cornhuskers have yet to be challenged by a team inside the top 200 of KenPom, surging to a 3-0 record with wins over UTRGV, Bethune-Cookman and Fairleigh Dickinson.
Do I believe the aforementioned shooting struggles will persist?
They won't shoot 35% from 3 like a season ago, as they don't have Keisei Tominaga or CJ Wilcher. On the other side, Nebraska won't shoot a ghastly 24% from 3 all year, either.
The Huskers' shooting percentage should settle somewhere in the middle, and the key is Brice Williams shooting better than 28% from 3. He's the best offensive player on the team, and his perimeter success opens up the offense.
Personally, I'm a bit puzzled by the way Nebraska's offense functions. I figured the Cornhuskers would have a four or five assists-per-game guy by adding Rollie Worster, but he averages more turnovers than dimes.
The leader for Nebraska in usage rate — unsurprisingly — is Williams at 29%, per Bart Torvik, up from 22% last year. If the offense features Williams that much, he needs to improve his 7% assist rate and 18% turnover rate. It feels like Williams handling the ball more is taking away from his scoring, so something has to give.
While Saint Mary's switched from a defensive team to an offensive team, Nebraska has fully dug its heels into being a defensive squad.
Fred Hoiberg ushers the 29th-best defense in the sport, per KenPom. The Huskers thrive by forcing turnovers (26% turnover percentage) and allowing the second-fewest free throws.
Saint Mary's vs Nebraska Betting Analysis
I'm buying positive shooting regression from Nebraska. Yes, it doesn't have snipers everywhere like last year, but 24% from 3 is impossibly bad for any team — let alone one with multiple guys who have shot 35% or better in their careers.
I have real concerns about the Gaels' defense, and I don't know if their offensive success is real enough to warrant backing them against an elite defense.
Another advantage is with Nebraska's interior depth. Hoiberg can go big against the 7-footers — Saxen and Harry Wessels — with either Andrew Morgan or Braxton Meah.
The other option is hoping Berke Buyuktuncel can force Saxen to the perimeter and capitalize with some 3s.
