The Saint Mary's Gaels take on the San Francisco Dons in San Francisco, California. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Saint Mary's is favored by 5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -225. The total is set at 131.5 points.
Here are my Saint Mary's vs. San Francisco predictions and college basketball picks for February 6, 2025.
Saint Mary's vs San Francisco Prediction
My Pick: Saint Mary's -6 (Play to -6.5)
My Saint Mary's vs San Francisco best bet is on the Gaels spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Saint Mary's vs San Francisco Odds, Spread, Pick
| Saint Mary's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 131.5 -110 / -110 | -225 |
| San Francisco Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 131.5 -110 / -110 | +185 |
- Saint Mary's vs San Francisco spread: Saint Mary's -5
- Saint Mary's vs San Francisco over/under: 131.5 points
- Saint Mary's vs San Francisco moneyline: Saint Mary's -225, San Francisco +185
- Saint Mary's vs San Francisco best bet: Saint Mary's -6 (Play to -6.5)
My Saint Mary's vs San Francisco College Basketball Betting Preview
Saint Mary's is among the hottest teams in the country, winning 10 consecutive games since WCC play began, including an impressive victory over Gonzaga on Saturday.
The Gaels have held nine of those opponents to fewer than 1.00 PPP. Randy Bennett is an elite defensive coach, and this is one of the better defensive units he's had.
They hold opponents to 45% shooting from 2-point range (18th nationally) — plus, the Gaels excel at holding opponents to one shot, as opponents secure offensive rebounds 25% of the time.
Offensively, Saint Mary's wants to get the ball inside. Point guard Augustus Marciulionis is terrific at setting up the offense, as assists come on over 60% of the Gaels' made field goals.
Coach Bennett's squad has a pair of sensational forwards — Paulius Murauskas and Mitchell Saxen. The 6-foot-8 Murauskas is also a strong perimeter threat, which adds another layer to the Gaels' offense.
Another area Saint Mary's excels in is creating extra possessions via offense rebounds. The Gaels boast the second-best offensive rebounding rate in America at 40%. That'll help one of the slowest tempo teams in the country cut more time off the clock.
The Gaels' rotation isn't super deep. However, they get a ton of production from their top six players, as all are averaging between nine and 13 points per game.
Freshman guard Mikey Lewis might be the most gifted scorer of the bunch, posting nine points per game in just 16 minutes. Coach Bennett can pivot to the freshman scorer if the offensive well goes dry.
On the flip side, San Francisco is one of the best WCC programs outside of Gonzaga and Saint Mary's. The Dons enter this game with an 18-6 record and sit at No. 69 in KenPom.
San Francisco managed to sneak out of its last game with a win over a strong Washington State team sans star guard Malik Thomas. The 6-foot-5 guard is a premier scorer in the WCC, averaging 19.7 points per game on 47% shooting. However, Thomas scored just eight points in the first meeting versus Saint Mary's.
Here's why I can't back San Francisco, though: Although I like the spot, the Gaels are terrific at containing everything the Dons do well.
Shooting is a strength of the Dons, as they're attempting 3s at a 46% clip and hitting 34% of them. Conversely, Saint Mary's is great at forcing late-clock 2s, as opponents attempt 3s on 32% of their possessions.
In the first meeting between the two teams, San Francisco went 5-of-22 from downtown in a 20-point drubbing. It could be more of the same if it can't shoot it well.
If Thomas is out, then sophomore Ryan Beasley will start, and he's not a very good shooter, connecting on 29% from deep.
I also have worries about San Francisco keeping Saint Mary's off the glass. The Dons will trot out 7-footer Carlton Linguard Jr., who's more of a scorer than a defender and rebounder, and Junjie Wang, who will struggle versus Murauskas.
In general, San Francisco isn't a great rebounding team. It ranks outside the top 100 in defensive rebounding rate, so the Gaels can take advantage of the less beefy Dons frontline.
