The Samford Bulldogs take on the Furman Paladins in Greenville, SC. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Samford is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -125. The total is set at 150.5 points.
Here are my Samford vs. Furman predictions and college basketball picks for January 29, 2025.
Samford vs. Furman Prediction, Picks
My Pick: Furman +1 (Play to PK)
My Samford vs Furman best bet is on the Paladins spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Samford vs. Furman Odds, Betting Line, Spread
| Samford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -108 | 150.5 -108o / -112u | -130 |
| Furman Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -112 | 150.5 -108o / -112u | +110 |
- Samford vs Furman spread: Samford -2, Furman +2
- Samford vs Furman over/under: 150.5
- Samford vs Furman moneyline: Samford ML -130, Furman ML +110
Samford vs. Furman Pick, NCAAB Preview
I have a soft spot for the SoCon, as the depth is fantastic. It’s a league driven by skill, with the highest 3-point rate among all 32 conferences, just shy of 46%. If you like shooters, this is your jam.
But 3-point variance can make or break you in the SoCon.
Furman has hit a rough patch, shooting just 32% from deep during league play, while opponents have knocked down 37%. That has set the Paladins back to a 4-4 league start. Their VMI loss was tough to swallow, and they barely scraped by Mercer on the road in their last game.
However, their poor shooting splits have made them slightly undervalued, and I think this is a circle-the-wagon spot against the class of the SoCon.
Furman likely had this game circled after losing the SoCon Tournament semifinal duel to Samford last year. The ‘Dins did manage to upset the Bulldogs at home last January, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a repeat performance, especially in a max-effort spot.
Samford is overdue for a tough loss after a 7-1 start to league play. Recent wins over Chattanooga and Wofford were solid, but their road performances haven’t blown me away. They barely squeaked by Mercer, and if Chattanooga hadn’t shot a terrible 19% from 3, who knows how that would’ve ended.
Samford has struggled on the road, boasting a 3-6 ATS record this season.
From a schematic perspective, I’m shocked that Furman is getting unlucky with opposing 3-point shooting variance, considering the Paladins are an elite catch-and-shoot denial defense. That’s critical against Samford’s five-out spread offense, which can look uncomfortable when those opportunities are taken away.
I’m concerned about Furman’s transition defense, which can be vulnerable and will be vital against Samford’s up-tempo attack.
However, the best way to avoid defending in transition is to avoid turning the ball over against Samford’s aggressive trapping-zone-press defense.
Furman has been a solid ball-handling team, especially with point guard PJay Smith Jr. playing at an all-conference level. The Paladins are an above-average zone (1.02 PPP, 65th percentile, per Synergy) and press (.93 PPP, 63rd percentile, per Synergy) offense.
Like most Bob Richey-led teams, the Paladins are an elite secondary-motion offense. They’re excellent with their spacing, shooting, passing and off-ball cutting.
Bucky McMillan’s press defense is vulnerable to offenses that can cut behind it, and his zone coverage is susceptible to offenses that can shoot over it. Furman can do both.
Ultimately, the Bulldogs can look rather ugly when they’re not hitting a million 3s off a million turnovers. I’m banking on Richey drawing up a great game plan to exploit those vulnerabilities, and I’m looking to back the potentially undervalued ‘Dins as home ‘dogs.
