San Diego State vs Colorado State Odds, Pick
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 142.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Colorado State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 142.5 -110o / -110u | -145 |
The Mountain West is arguably the most fascinating conference in college basketball. Each week, chaos ensues, and different teams end up on the projected bubble for the NCAA Tournament.
Colorado State was involved in a wild game on Saturday afternoon at Wyoming. It had the game wrapped up, but in the final three minutes of play, it blew a big lead and lost in overtime.
It was one of the more improbable losses of the season, and now the Rams have a quick turnaround. San Diego State heads to Fort Collins on Tuesday evening to build momentum toward reclaiming first place in the Mountain West.
San Diego State Aztecs
Brian Dutcher's Aztecs have followed up their National Championship appearance with a solid season. Unfortunately for the Aztecs, it just so happens that the Mountain West is a loaded league.
This isn't a great spot situationally for the Aztecs, as they haven't played since last Tuesday. The Rams are desperate for a big win to get their season back on track, which is awful news for SDSU.
The Mountain West is on pace to have six bids for the Big Dance, but nothing is guaranteed. Due to the time off, I envision a sleepy effort from the Aztecs.
Just like last season, San Diego State remains a solid defensive team that ranks top-20 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Its 3-point defense looks great on paper, but it's been fortunate in that category. The Aztecs give up a ton of 3-point attempts, but their opponents are shooting just 29% from beyond the arc.
The Rams are a solid 3-point shooting team, which is tough for a San Diego State defense that has negative regression coming its way. According to the law of averages, something tells me this could be a long night for the SDSU defense.
Jaedon LeDee is a focal point of the offense, and Micah Parrish has continued to be productive on both ends of the floor. San Diego State should be able to score throughout the contest, but it's in trouble if Colorado State's offense clicks early.
This isn't the worst matchup for the Aztecs, but the situational spot is not working in their favor.
Colorado State Rams
If the Rams replayed the last five minutes of regulation in their game against Wyoming, they would win 95 out of 100 times. It's hard to fathom they blew that game.
Many believe Colorado State's season is going down the drain, but I think the opposite. There's good reason to believe it will bounce back at home.
CSU's offense ranks 27th in adjusted efficiency and sits 10th in 2-point percentage.
The experience of seniors Isaiah Stevens and Patrick Cartier has been extremely impactful. Both are shooting a combined 40% from deep, and they should continue that trend in this matchup. Considering the Aztecs defense is due for negative regression from deep, they're prone to a massive shooting performance any day now.
However, their defense brings legitimate concerns. They're allowing opponents to shoot 51% from the field. Their 3-point defense seems sketchy on paper, but the metrics suggest they've been unfortunate in that department.
Colorado State may not be as balanced as SDSU, but the situational spot at home outweighs any of the matchups. Moby Arena should be jumping for this massive Tuesday night clash.
San Diego State vs Colorado State
Betting Pick & Prediction
I don't expect a letdown from the Rams despite their catastrophe in Laramie. They have lost two consecutive games, and their 3-4 record in conference isn't ideal.
Niko Medved's team needs a big win at home to bolster its NCAA Tournament resume, so I expect the Rams to pull out all of the stops. Expect them to cash in on the Aztecs' looming negative regression, especially from 3-point land.
Their concerns me a bit, but the offense led by Stevens should provide plenty of firepower to stay in control for most of the contest.
This is a huge game in the Mountain West, and I like the Rams to pull out a close win at home.
Pick: Colorado State -1 (Play to -2)
