San Diego State vs New Mexico Odds
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | -180 |
Not many expected the Mountain West Conference to be a six-bid league for the NCAA tournament. Saturday, two of those six teams will battle it out in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
Brian Dutcher's San Diego State Aztecs will hit the road as the New Mexico Lobos are eager to bounce back after losing to UNLV. Meanwhile, Richard Pitino's Lobos are a fun team to watch and have been one of the biggest surprises in the sport.
San Diego State Aztecs
After reaching the national championship last season, the Aztecs are poised for another deep run. Their defensive tenacity remains the anchor of this squad.
They are 18th in adjusted defensive efficiency and enter this game on a seven-game winning streak. Their perimeter defense will shut down any threat from downtown throughout this contest.
However, Albuquerque isn't an easy place to play, so this isn't the best spot for the Aztecs. The Lobos are coming off a loss, so San Diego State will need a gritty effort to be victorious.
Two components of this game have me concerned for the Aztecs: Turnovers and Rebounds.
The Lobos do a great job protecting the basketball, and the Aztecs struggle to force turnovers. Additionally, neither team excels at rebounding, but the Lobos are much better.
San Diego State might be more talented on paper, but the Aztecs' thin rotation and slow offensive pace don't correlate well in this matchup.
New Mexico Lobos
The path to victory is straightforward for the Lobos. They must protect the basketball, hit open 3s and use their fast pace to their advantage.
If they can force the Aztecs out of rhythm, Pitino's team should fare just fine. He will use New Mexico's deeper rotation to his advantage as there's a good chance the Lobos can outrun the Aztecs throughout the contest.
The Lobos are balanced overall, ranking in top 70 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Their strength on defense is their ability to force turnovers.
I expect the Lobos' aggressive defense to dominate, as long as they don't commit a lot of fouls. That has been their lone downfall on that side of the floor.
Guards Donovan Dent and Jaelen House have supplied most of the damage from beyond the arc and will need another big performance to crack the Aztecs' rigid defense.
New Mexico's offense needs to capitalize on its second scoring chances because that is another way to find open looks from beyond the arc. Up-tempo offenses typically throw tough defensive teams out of wack and that'll be a difference maker in this game too.
Defensively, they will be able to hold their own as the talented Aztecs' forwards don't pose as big of a threat as you may think.
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San Diego State vs. New Mexico
Betting Pick & Prediction
I love the Lobos in this game and expect them to take care of business. They will be hungry to bounce back from a tough loss and The Pit should be rocking on Saturday afternoon.
Expect the Lobos' defense to step up as their ability to force turnovers and rebound will be the difference.
I am all in on New Mexico as this is one of the best spots on the entire card.
