The San Francisco Dons take on the Gonzaga Bulldogs in Spokane, WA. Tip-off is set for 11 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Gonzaga is favored by 14.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1350. The total is set at 153.5 points.
Here are my San Francisco vs. Gonzaga predictions and college basketball picks for February 13, 2025.
San Francisco vs Gonzaga Prediction
My Pick: Over 153 or Better
My San Francisco vs Gonzaga best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
San Francisco vs Gonzaga Odds
| San Francisco Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 153.5 -108 / -112 | +800 |
| Gonzaga Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 153.5 -108 / -112 | -1350 |
- San Francisco vs Gonzaga spread: Gonzaga -14.5
- San Francisco vs Gonzaga over/under: 153.5 points
- San Francisco vs Gonzaga moneyline: Gonzaga -1350, San Francisco +800
- San Francisco vs Gonzaga best bet: Over 153 or Better
Spread
I'm passing on the spread.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I like the over in this West Coast Conference battle.
My Pick: Over 153 or Better
San Francisco vs Gonzaga College Basketball Betting Preview
Gonzaga has been among the most disappointing teams in college basketball this year.
The Bulldogs have also been among the unluckiest.
I highly recommend checking out this article by Will Warren on the topic (@StatsByWill on X), where he delves deep into Gonzaga’s close-game variance woes.
But the long and the short of it is that Gonzaga is one of three teams that are 0-7 in games decided by six points or fewer. If the Zags flip two or three of those games — for example, either of the overtime losses to Kentucky or West Virginia — they’re a 20-win team with a much better resume.
For the first time in a while, the Bulldogs might be undervalued.
Conversely, I think the Dons are overvalued, particularly on defense.
San Francisco’s conference opponents have shot 25% from 3. The Dons are on a four-game win streak in which their opponents have shot 16-for-82 (19%) from deep.
I hardly think that’s sustainable, especially considering their Charmin Soft interior defense. The Dons rank 10th in the WCC in 2-point defense (57%, per KenPom) while allowing 22 at-the-rim field goal attempts per game (seventh percentile, per CBB Analytics).
Just take a look at their series against Saint Mary’s. Yes, the Dons won the second matchup, but the Gaels scored 70 points at the rim between the two, which is absurd.
That doesn’t bode well against Gonzaga’s rim-running offense. You have to turn Gonzaga into jump-shooters in the half-court, or else Graham Ike will burn you on cuts, rolls and posts.
That said, I think San Francisco could score here.
The Dons are a jump-shot-reliant offense, especially in the pick-and-pop, dribble handoff and isolation game.
I think the Bulldogs’ perimeter defense is vulnerable. They allow plenty of 3s (42% 3-point rate allowed, ninth in the WCC, per KenPom), and you can score on Ike if you move him around and make him defend in space.
Also, they’re a horrific isolation defense (.92 PPP allowed, 15th percentile, per Synergy).
Altogether, I think we’re in for a high-scoring ball game. The last two matchups between these two soared over the closing total.
The Dons’ defense is crazy overvalued, and Ike should be in for a massive day against their interior defense.
Meanwhile, San Francisco should get good 3-point looks against Gonzaga’s defense.
The key to the total will be the pace. San Francisco is an elite transition defense (.83 PPP allowed, 98th percentile, per Synergy), which is imperative against Gonzaga’s up-tempo attack.
That said, the Dons aren’t the best ball-handling team (17% turnover rate, 190th nationally, per KenPom), so I wouldn’t be surprised if they threw the ball away and allowed the Bulldogs to speed them up, especially in Spokane.
