Mike Calabrese and Tanner McGrath are back for another edition of our Pick & Roll. The dynamic duo has college basketball predictions for Saturday, Dec. 23.
It’s Big East week for the Saturday pick-and-roll duo, as Tanner McGrath and Mike Calabrese are betting on three Big East teams off a tough conference opening-night loss against three Big East teams off a big conference opening-night win.
Aside from our Big East bounce-back love, Breese is betting on points in what should be a barn burner between Florida Atlantic and Arizona.
It’s a shorter Saturday slate in the college hoops world, so the column’s got you covered for a quarter of the slate from early afternoon to dusk.
It’s been a rough start for the duo, but that only means positive regression is coming, so take the “picks” and “roll” into the slate.
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McGrath's 2 Saturday Picks
Big East Letdown/Bounce-Back Spot No. 1.
Seton Hall picked up a monster 15-point win over UConn to start conference play. It was a much-needed victory for a Shaheen Halloway-led squad that was previously 1-4 in Quad 1/Quad 2 opportunities – the type of win that will travel to Selection Sunday.
But the Pirates didn’t do it without their four-leaf clover. The Huskies shot 4-for-21 from 3 – an uncharacteristic 19% for a usually-elite shooting squad – and ShotQuality graded it as a 72-70 UConn win based on the “quality” of shots taken and allowed.
So, what better time for a letdown?
Meanwhile, Xavier enters this game off a big loss to St. John’s. Coincidentally, the Musketeers shot 4-for-21 from 3 in their 15-point loss.
So, what better time for a bounce-back?
Schematically, I think it’s a decent matchup for Xavier. While the Pirates' ball-screen defense has been alright, their transition defense hasn’t (1.1 PPP allowed, 17th percentile), which will hurt against an uptempo Musketeers squad.
Even better, Seton Hall’s ballhandling remains an issue (209th in turnover rate), so Xavier could potentially turn defense into offense, even if the Musketeers don’t pressure much.
Kadary Richmond is turning into a star, but he’s also throwing the ball away 20% of the time.
Also, Seton Hall’s defensive regression is concerning. The Pirates have dropped to 99th nationally in defensive efficiency after finishing 20th last season, and they’re allowing a ton of high-quality, unguarded 3s.
I also don’t trust their offense, even if they’ve made significant strides in Shaheen’s second season, jumping from 133rd to 48th in offensive efficiency year over year. They’re uber-reliant on second-chance points and transition buckets, and a tenth of their possessions end in “miscellaneous” plays, per Synergy, a little too many for my liking.
Xavier’s been poor on the glass, but the Musketeers’ transition defense has been more than solid (.85 PPP allowed, 91st percentile), and they’ve been excellent at defending those random, “miscellaneous” possessions (.27 PPP allowed, 96th percentile).
I also think Al-Amir Dawes, Dylan Addae-Wusu and Dre Davis will struggle to match up with Quincy Olivari and Desmond Claude on the wing. While Olivari is dropping 17 PPG with a 123.1 ORtg and Claude is scoring 16 with a 109, Dawes has been a minus defender by Evan Miya’s DBPR metric, while Wusu and Davis haven’t been much better.
I hope to see this:
A Richmond turnover that results in a downhill drive. Over and over and over again.
But ultimately, this is your classic buy-low, sell-high, overreaction spot. I’ll take Xavier to win big.
Pick: Xavier -3.5 (Play to -5)
Big East Letdown/Bounce-Back Spot No. 2.
And this is Saturday’s most obvious spot.
Villanova is coming off a physical double-overtime road victory against Creighton on Wednesday – where it needed a 14-point second-half comeback and a 5-for-24 3-point shooting night from the Jays to pull it off – and now travel to Chicago for the second leg of a two-game road trip.
It’s a sleepy letdown spot for a short-handed Wildcats team that’s likely still without starting point guard Justin Moore – he’s listed as “questionable” on the injury report, but I’d be surprised if he plays.
It’s worth mentioning that Kyle Neptune-led teams have struggled on short rest, as Fordham and 'Nova have gone 16-23 ATS on one to three days of rest under the coach's tutelage.
Meanwhile, DePaul hasn’t played in a week after losing to Northwestern last Saturday. The Demons haven’t left Chicago since Dec. 6. They’ll be well-rested and, hopefully, well-prepared to battle in their Big East opener.
They also won’t play for a week after this one, with their next matchup coming next Saturday at home against Chicago State. They can empty the tank and throw the kitchen sink at the Wildcats.
For example, Tony Stubblefield has a zone defense in his bag, as DePaul’s 70 zone defensive possessions are more than 72% of college teams.
Villanova is not a good zone offense, even if the Wildcats’ 3-point shooting prowess indicates they should be. They’ve scored 200 points in 250 possessions against zone since Neptune took over, with their .89 PPP ranking far below average.
Hey Tony, if there’s a time to whip the zone out, this is it.
In other ‘Nova-DePaul schematic news, the Demons are a ball-screen rim-running offense that heavily utilizes cutters. Meanwhile, by ShotQuality’s metrics, the Wildcats rank sub-200th nationally in pick-and-roll PPP allowed (.98) and cutter PPP allowed (1.39) while ranking 162nd in at-the-rim PPP allowed (1.17).
Even worse, Neptune likely won’t have his best ball-screen coverage defender available – Moore is a lights-out defender at the point of attack.
It’s time for Chico Carter to have a career game (14 PPG; .92 pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP, 74th percentile). Especially since Eric Dixon and the Wildcats’ compact, interior-based defense will likely shut down De’Sean Nelson.
Also, DePaul might be a good shooting team. The Demons are canning 36% of their 3s and 74% of their foul shots. Three players are hitting over 40% from deep, including Carter at 43%.
They're likely overperforming, but hot shooting could prove monumental against a compact 'Nova defense that allows the 33rd-highest 3-point rate in the nation. Again, it's time for Carter to have a career game.
Conversely, I like how DePaul runs shooters off the 3-point line on defense, ranking 83rd nationally in 3-point rate allowed and 61st in unguarded jumpers allowed. That’ll play against a Villanova offense that lives on the perimeter, ranking seventh in 3-point rate.
Yes, DePaul is a horrific basketball team, but the situational spot is too good to avoid. Plus, we’ve seen too many opening-night Big East upsets, so another is bound to happen, right?!
Pick: DePaul +11.5 (Play to +8.5)
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Calabrese's 2 Saturday Picks
Boy, I am thrilled Alabama and Arizona couldn't throw it in the ocean on Wednesday.
The Tide and Cats played an up-and-down game that should have lit up the scoreboard, but instead, they shot 12-of-57 (21%) from long range. Arizona cruised to an 87-74 victory over Bama, but the total could've finished north of 170 if the Tide hit a few more shots.
FAU-Arizona Over bettors can reap the rewards of that off-shooting night by playing a depressed number in the low 160s. 'Zona will keep playing fast, and FAU has the shot-making to keep pace.
While the Owls play much slower — ranking 138th nationally in tempo — FAU has been sped up multiple times this year.
Illinois and FAU played an NBA-level game in the Jimmy V classic, as the Illini won 98-89 despite the Owls hoisting 64 shots — five more than their season average — while getting to the line 22 times.
Slowing down Arizona — which ranks fifth in tempo — is hard enough already. But Dusty May's team has the shot-making to win shootouts, so they'll be tempted to play at a Cat's pace.
For Arizona, I like how they're playing right now.
All five starters scored double-digits against Alabama, and the Cats can still post crooked numbers even if the triples aren't falling.
I have one critique of 3-point-dependent teams: do you have a backup plan if the shots aren't falling?
Well, Arizona has proven it can get to the line, which has stabilized its offensive output. Caleb Love has helped in that department, taking and making 14 foul shots in the past two games against Alabama and Purdue.
Speaking of the Purdue game — while the 92-84 loss was a letdown for the top-ranked 'Cats, their ability to hang 84 on a borderline top-10 Boilers defense gives me hope for this matchup with FAU.
Florida Atlantic ranks in the top 40 nationally in a few vital defensive metrics, while BartTorvik and KenPom rate them as among the nation's best mid-major defenses. But Arizona's versatility and ability to consistently and comfortably knock down shots in the mid-range should be enough to keep it humming against a quality defense.
I would play this up to 164.5.
Pick: Over 160 (Play to 164.5)
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Big East Letdown/Bounce-Back Spot No. 3.
UConn sleepwalked through a loss to Seton Hall this week, and to be honest, it was bound to happen.
The Huskies hadn't mailed in a performance since January of last year. After their decisive victory against Gonzaga on the West Coast, they didn't get up for Seton Hall on the road. It happens.
But that loss has depressed this number by a full possession from my power rankings, so I'm ready to pounce on UConn in a bounce-back spot.
Schematically, the Johnnies will have a few issues to compete with immediately.
Firstly, they've been killed on the defensive glass, and UConn may be the nation's best offensive-rebounding team.
Secondly, the emergence of Donovan Clingan. After a subdued start to the campaign, he's come on in the past two games. He shot 8-for-11 from the field against Gonzaga, grabbed eight boards (four offensive) and followed that up with a 14-point, seven-rebound performance on Wednesday before getting the early hook (14 minutes) with an ankle injury.
I'm okay playing the risk/reward game with Clingan because he's proven to be a gutty performer through injury. He was politicking to return to the game on Wednesday, working with the trainers and pleading with Coach Hurley to return to the floor. Hurley said afterward that he's a "tough kid." He's played through ankle injuries and the loss of a front tooth before.
Needless to say, "load management" isn't a part of his vocabulary.
I'm impressed with Rick Pitino's impact on the Red Storm in year one, but it's time to pump the breaks on SJU's "resurgent" season. Over their past six games, the Johnnies have beaten a mix of absolute dogs (Fordham, Holy Cross, Sacred Heart) and power conference teams unlikely to go dancing (West Virginia, Xavier). They also lost on a neutral floor to Boston College.
I'm unimpressed with that 5-1 mark and have questions about the backcourt chemistry. Daniss Jenkins and Jordan Dingle haven't flashed the kind of consistent scoring they did at the mid-major level. Toss in shooting regression — 47.3% last year, 40.4% this year — and it's hard to envision the supporting cast helping Joel Soriano that much.
Speaking of Soriano, SJU can't hang in this game without a monster performance from the big man. The Johnnies are 0-2 ATS when he's been held under 15 points, failing to cover the closing number by a combined 24 points.
With Clingan defending and Soriano's foul issue (four fouls in two of his past three games), I wouldn't be surprised to see an off-night from the big man, a disaster scenario for the Johnnies.
One final note: with a big number like this, I always prefer to back teams that generate "kill shots," which are runs of 10-0 or better.
UConn is second in the Big East with 13 this year, so they can blow this game wide open and cover a double-digit spread.
Pick: UConn -10 (Play to -11)
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