The women's NCAA Tournament rolls on Saturday with four Sweet 16 games after four on Friday night.
Here are two ways I'm betting it.
UConn over 66.5 points
- Spread: UConn -9
- Total: 124.5
- 2 p.m. ET on Saturday
- Available at BetMGM
I'll be adding the over on Connecticut's team total to my card for a half-unit. Though I debated leaving this game on the cutting room floor, I think Connecticut has a decent chance to bounce back after a 52-point effort in the second round against Central Florida.
The Knights were ranked 342nd in the country in terms of pace, with 65.4 possessions per game. UCF was also very familiar with UConn as both teams were previously members of the American Athletic Conference a few years ago.
My model projects UConn to be closer to 69 points on Saturday when they take on Indiana in Bridgeport — roughly an hour away from Storrs. It's worth noting that In the previous six games where UConn scored fewer than 60 points, it scored at least 67 points in the next game.
South Dakota +4.5 vs. Michigan
- Spread: Michigan -4.5
- Total: 122.5
- 6:30 p.m. ET on Saturday
- Available at BetMGM
After knocking off the second-seeded Baylor Bears in Waco, Texas, I'm not sure the Coyotes are done dancing just yet. South Dakota will now take on a Michigan team that's hardly been tested thus far in the tournament.
In the first round, Michigan defeated Patriot League champions American University. Michigan's next opponent was a Villanova team that ESPN's Charlie Creme projected as one of the last four at-large teams to be selected.
In the second round, seniors Naz HillImon and Leigha Brown were the only two Wolverines players in double figures as they combined to score 47 of the team's 64 points.
However, the Coyotes boast three seniors of their own as guards Chloe Lamb and Liv Korngable, along with center Hannah Sjerven, all returned to Vermillion for a fifth season after the NCAA granted athletes an extra year of eligibility due to the coronavirus pandemic.
The three players give the Coyotes a more balanced offensive, considering that each averages double figures. South Dakota should have the edge on the perimeter as it averages 6.3 3-pointers per game compared to Michigan's 4.7 per game.
However, Michigan's defense also allows opponents an average of six 3-pointers per game. That could be enough to favor an experienced Coyotes team that played an aggressive non-conference schedule with games against South Carolina, Texas A&M and Oklahoma.
