The SEC is one of the most interesting conferences when it comes to a futures point of view. When I look at this league, I see a lot of parity towards the top. There are a handful of teams with extremely high ceilings, though they could struggle and fall right out of the equation.
A lot of questions will be answered in the next month with conference play about to start in January, so let’s look at each team and how they’ve performed in the non-conference.
This is the follow-up to my preseason preview, where I wrote about betting Auburn (+1200) to win the SEC.
There’s one team in particular that I'm looking to bet to win the conference, which I delve into below.
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Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee remains atop the SEC odds board, despite a tumultuous non-conference schedule. After an early-season win against Wisconsin, the Vols have lost three of four Quadrant I games.
Offensively, this is a team that's struggled, finding itself outside the top 160 in both 2-point and 3-point shooting.
But the money maker has been its defense. The Vols are fourth in Adjusted Efficiency and are best defending the rim.
We’ve seen Rick Barnes’ squad give the SEC plenty of fits on the defensive end, mostly because of that rim protection. Opponents shoot over 40% of their field goal attempts from the perimeter, normally an area of weakness in the conference.
The bright spot of this team has been Northern Colorado transfer Dalton Knecht. He leads the Vols in scoring (15.7 PPG) and is shooting 37.7% from the perimeter.
Santiago Vescovi has surprisingly struggled a lot, shooting 30% from 3 and averaging just 7.9 points per game. He averaged no less than 12.5 over the last two seasons.
I would expect positive regression for this Vols offense, though I wouldn’t invest in Tennessee to win the SEC. I'm a bit worried as to how this team — despite its experience — comes out on top given its lack of depth (242nd in bench minutes) and limited scoring options.
Auburn Tigers
Before the season started, I wrote about taking Auburn to win the SEC at +1200. The Tigers are now anywhere from +460 to +500 and the second- or third-ranked team across most sportsbooks. Aside from a loss to Appalachian State, the Tigers have been incredibly impressive.
Auburn is one of the deepest teams in the country, ranking 10th in bench minutes. It's one of the few teams in KenPom that boast both a top-20 offense and defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency.
The Tigers finally have an extra gear on the offense that was often lacking in Bruce Pearl’s former teams. They rank fifth in assist rate, and freshman Aden Holloway has stepped in as the primary facilitator. Not only is he just outside the top 100 in assist rate, but he’s also shooting 39.1% from the perimeter and is the second-leading scorer (11.5 PPG).
Johni Broome returned and joins Jaylin Williams in providing elite rim protection. The Tigers rank 21st in 2-point defense and 29th defending the perimeter.
Their weakness has been foul rate (300th), but when Pearl is able to utilize his nine-to-10-man rotation to its fullest extent, sky is the limit.
If you didn’t add Auburn in the preseason, I would consider adding a small bet on the Tigers. This is my favorite team when it comes to all-around talent and depth, and I’ve even invested in Auburn to win the NCAA tournament title at 60/1.
Kentucky Wildcats
This may be one of John Calipari’s most talented teams in recent years. The Wildcats are athletic and electric, and they’ve been doing it without much interior size through the majority of non-conference play.
Aaron Bradshaw underwent surgery in the offseason and has finally returned. The 7-foot-1 big man was the sixth-ranked recruit coming out of high school. Easing back into action, Bradshaw did drop a double-double against Penn (17 points, 11 rebounds) and he has a sky-high ceiling.
Ugonna Onyenso has also returned from injury, but has played minimally.
Run-and-gun is the name of the game for the Wildcats. This is a team that's top-20 in Adjusted Tempo and is the fourth-best 3-point shooting team in the country.
The Cats take care of the basketball — third in turnover rate — and are extremely balanced. Six players average 9.9 points per game or more, with Antonio Reeves (18.3 PPG) leading the way.
Three players shoot 44% or better from 3 — Reeves (45.5%), Rob Dillingham (44.4%) and Reed Sheppard (57.8%) — and, though at times streaky, they're hard to slow down.
The end result is an up-and-down transition game on the defensive end, where the Wildcats give up nearly 43% of all shots from the perimeter. They don't have a great defense — 149th in eFG%, 167th in 2-point% — but some of that has been because of a limited frontcourt.
Only time will tell how Calipari’s squad will perform in SEC play, and while I expect negative regression from the perimeter — it’s hard to shoot 41.4% as a team, especially in the SEC — it has impressive wins against both Miami (FL) and North Carolina.
Sit tight on the Cats, but keep an eye on how SEC play goes early, with road tests against Florida and Texas A&M. A couple of wins there and UK might be worth an add as a future.
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas A&M was second in the SEC odds preseason, but it's struggled to find its footing after a dominant start. It's worth noting that the Aggies have battled injuries throughout but have lost four of their last five Quadrant I or II games.
Star Tyrece Radford has played just once in their last six games, and he was extremely ineffective against Memphis (eight points, one assist on 3-of-9 shooting).
Buzz Williams has an experienced roster, one that ranks 52nd in minutes continuity. The Aggies were one of the SEC favorites because of their returning production, with expectations that they would take their play to another level.
But that hasn’t fully come to fruition.
Despite ranking fifth in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, per KenPom, they're 260th in eFG% and shoot 28.6% from 3 as a team. Their 2-point offense isn’t much better, ranking 160th.
Where they dominate is through physicality on the offensive glass. They're the No. 1 offensive rebounding team (45.1 o-reb%). Henry Coleman III leads the team in rebounding (8.7) and Andersson Garcia — in limited time — ranks 27th in o-reb%.
Wade Taylor IV is the engine of the team. He's taking 30.9% of all shots when on the floor and is the assists leader for the Aggies (4.6). He’s also the spark on the defensive side, leading in steals (2.1 SPG).
As is tradition for Williams, Texas A&M goes under every screen defensively. The end result is a high volume of 3-point shooting — 44.4% of all field goal attempts — and opponents have made the Aggies pay. They're 265th in 3-point defense.
Williams prefers a snail-paced game on both sides of the floor. His offense is slow and methodical, and the Aggies' athleticism often leads to late shot clocks for opponents.
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Alabama Crimson Tide
Nate Oats’ squad is not as dominant as last season, but the Alabama offense remains among the nation’s elite.
Despite a 7-5 record, KenPom ranks this team eighth. The Tide have the No. 1 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, too.
Nearly half of the Tide’s shots come from the perimeter and they’re inside the top 25 in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. Mark Sears has taken a huge step forward in his second season at Alabama, averaging 19.6 points per game on 44.4% shooting from 3.
The offense has been propelled by a couple of mid-major transfers, with Aaron Estrada (Hofstra) and Grant Nelson (North Dakota State) providing a steady dose of offense.
This is an experienced offense that runs and guns, yet doesn’t turn the ball over. The Tide also rebound extremely well on the offensive glass.
The issue? There remains a lot to be had on the defensive end. Nelson provides a mismatch because of his 6-foot-11 frame and quickness on the offensive end, but he isn’t as dominant of a rim protector as Noah Clowney and Charles Bediako were last year. There’s no shortage of size, but success has yet to follow.
ShotQuality ranks Alabama outside the top 200 in Open 3 Rate, defending finishes at the rim, Catch-and-Shoot 3s and pick-and-rolls. Even worse is the Tide's transition defense (310) and inability to defend off-the-dribble 3s (341st).
Physicality on the defensive end hasn't been a strong suit for Alabama. It’s ultimately been the Achilles’ heel in top matchups with KenPom top-30 teams. All five have been losses and opponents scored a minimum of 85 points each game.
There’s a lot to change for Oats on the defensive end, and if a few tweaks are made and Alabama’s defensive intensity improves, this isn’t a team to be taken lightly.
Few teams can stop this offense, especially when it’s rolling.
Florida Gators
The second year of the Todd Golden era is off to a much better start. Florida has proven it can hang with the big guns like Virginia and Baylor, and while the results didn’t fall in their favor, the Gators have shown they can compete for an SEC crown.
Florida is a tall and often overpowering team. Tyrese Samuel and Alex Condon have formed a dominant frontcourt and both sit inside the top 120 in offensive rebounding rate (UF as a whole is fourth). The duo has helped anchor a defense that ranks 35th in 2-point%.
This year’s team loves to run and gun on the offensive end. This is an experienced group that ranks sixth in shot selection, per ShotQuality. They attack the rim at a near-50% rate and are 21st in finishing from a SQ PPP perspective.
Florida has struggled a bit shooting the 3 ball (181st, 33.2%), but I would expect positive regression to strike. Riley Kugel, who was expected to take a sophomore-year leap, has shot just 26.4% from 3. This was a guard who came in as a freshman and lit it up from the perimeter (37.6%).
But despite his struggles, Florida has been able to weather the storm. Walter Clayton Jr. (Iona) has been a huge addition from the transfer portal, as has Zyon Pullin (UC Riverside). The duo has combined for 29.3 points and 8.4 assists per game. Both are shooting 35% from 3, too.
As mentioned earlier, this is a defense that funnels opponents into the paint, where Samuel and Condon stand. The Gators aren’t the best at defending the perimeter, but they've been a plus team both around the rim and in the mid-range.
Not to mention Florida also rolls out 7-foot-1 Micah Handlogten, who averages seven rebounds in just 18 minutes per game.
The odds have jumped up for Florida since the preseason, and now is the time to snag them. From top to bottom, this team is talented and experienced. The Gators' length should prove disruptive, and if Kugel can rekindle his form from 3, they'll be a tough team to knock off in SEC play.
I’d add .25u on the Gators (+1300) to win the SEC regular season. For reference, I have .5u on both Auburn (+1200) and Arkansas (+1000) from the preseason.
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Arkansas Razorbacks
I was very high on Arkansas before the season began, and I still believe this team has all the makings to contend atop the SEC. This is an extremely experienced team that's long and athletic.
The Razorbacks have a dominant backcourt that Eric Musselman added via the transfer portal. Tramon Mark (Houston) and Khalif Battle (Temple) are the duo in question and are the lone Razorbacks to average double figures.
They each take over a quarter of the shots while on the floor and average 32.2 points per game. What’s been most impressive is both shoot 43%+ from the perimeter, too.
Arkansas’ offense, though, looks to attack downhill through the pick-and-roll. Oftentimes it comes in the mid-range (22% frequency) or through drawing contact. The Razorbacks are inside the top 10 in FTA/FGA.
Similar to the aforementioned Gators, Arkansas looks to funnel opponents inside, where the length of Trevon Brazile, Makhi Mitchell and others await.
The Razorbacks are an athletic bunch, and while they don’t force many turnovers, ShotQuality grades this defense as dominant defending the rim (19th), both in transition (15th) and out of the half court (14th) and in the pick-and-roll (13th).
Despite the success not fully coming to fruition, based on ShotQuality projections, Arkansas’ defense is doing everything right. If you weren’t invested in this team preseason, I would consider an add to win the SEC here.
It often takes time for transfers to gain chemistry, and the underlying metrics back Arkansas here. I trust Musselman to take advantage come January.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Despite the loss of 6-foot-11 big man Tolu Smith, Mississippi State has been a surprise in non-conference play. The Bulldogs are 4-1 in Quadrant 2 games and aside from a stunning home loss to Southern, they haven't spiraled without their star.
Smith is back for SEC play and was the team's leading scorer (15.7) and rebounder (8.5) a season ago. He was used on over 30% of possessions and ranked fifth in fouls drawn per 40 minutes.
Freshman Josh Hubbard has stepped up as the primary shot taker and facilitator for this Mississippi State offense. He leads the team in scoring (14.8 PPG) and takes over 32% of the shots while on the floor.
The Bulldogs aren’t a dominant offense by any means. Like last year, they've really struggled to find any rhythm from the perimeter. They have a slow-paced offense that likes to attack downhill and draw fouls, using their physicality to create second-chance opportunities.
That same aggressiveness translates over to the defensive end, where Chris Jans’ squad ranks 10th in Adjusted Efficiency, per KenPom. The Bulldogs are inside the top 10 guarding the perimeter – which is a huge plus, considering they're 231st in 3PA/FGA — and are efficient when it comes to defensive rebounding.
This defense can be suffocating and they have a deep roster to throw at you. Once Smith comes back, expect Mississippi State to be a fun underdog to back at home. Until then, I’m going to be betting them sparingly.
Ole Miss Rebels
If you want to talk about a team breaking most advanced metric systems, look no further than Chris Beard's Rebels. Ole Miss has yet to lose a game thus far and has pulled out all five that were decided by one possession.
Despite being undefeated, KenPom has this team ranked 80th. Sportsbooks list Ole Miss ninth. Has it been a semi-easy non-conference schedule? Yes, but the Rebels have also picked up wins against Memphis, UCF and NC State.
I would expect negative regression to hit Ole Miss when the level of competition steps up, but nevertheless, it’s been an impressive start.
The Rebels are the eighth-best 3-point shooting team in the country (40.7%). Matthew Murrell has seen his 3-point shooting rise 10% this season, and he leads Ole Miss in scoring.
In general, the Rebels have a three-headed offensive monster in Murrell, Auburn transfer Allen Flanigan and Saint Peter’s transfer Jaylen Murray. The trio makes up 64% of all scoring and averages a combined 10 assists per game, too.
Ole Miss’ weakness has been scoring inside, where it's 240th in 2-point%. That’s where the concerns come into play, especially when a highly-volatile shot like the 3-pointer fails to fall.
Defensively, despite 7-foot-5 Jamarion Sharp and 7-footer Moussa Cisse, Ole Miss is outside the top 70 in 2-point% and 316th in offensive rebounding rate. Now mind you, this has come against an easier schedule, where the Rebels have played just two Quadrant 1 or 2 games.
Aside from its weakness inside — as expected with Beard — the rest of Ole Miss’ defense has been above average. The Rebels are top 50 in 3-point defense and rank 13th in steal rate.
I’m expecting negative regression to kick in for Ole Miss as SEC play gets underway, and I'll be looking to fade the Rebels as January gets underway.
Missouri Tigers
Dennis Gates surprised many in his first season with Missouri, turning a team expected to finish towards the bottom of the SEC into a NCAA tournament-caliber squad.
Despite retooling this offseason, there’s a lot of work to be done for Gates, and Missouri has struggled in the process.
The Tigers have lost three straight and also have a loss to Jackson State on their resume as well.
They shoot 3s on 44% of attempts, and as a result, volatility ensues. In general, Missouri is 97th in 3-point% and outside the top 100 in 2-point%.
Kobe Brown and Missouri’s four-leading scorers from last season are gone. Sean East II has stepped up in his second season with the Tigers, leading the team in scoring (17.2 PPG) and assists (3.8 APG).
Defensively, this team has many issues that will prevent a return to the NCAA tournament. The Tigers are outside the top 325 in defensive rebounding and foul at an extremely high rate. Despite a deep roster and 7-foot-5 Connor Vanover — he plays just 11 minutes per game — Missouri is extremely weak on the interior.
Missouri will have its moments when it catches fire from 3, but this team is nothing more than a weakling in the SEC.
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LSU Tigers
LSU is among the most confusing teams in college hoops. The good news is that Jalen Cook finally returned to action while being sidelined after his second transfer. He's already averaging 15 points and 5.5 assists in two games.
This is a team littered with transfers and youth, so growing pains are expected. The Tigers dropped their second game of the season against Nicholls State at home and will all but likely enter SEC play at 8-5. They do have a pair of Quadrant 2 wins against North Texas and Wake Forest.
Matt McMahon has a very tall roster, and he isn’t shy when it comes to utilizing his bench. Cook’s presence should help smooth things out for a team that's struggled in A/FGM and turnovers. He'll be the primary ball handler and shot taker.
LSU has struggled from the perimeter in the early going, but its size and physicality has led to success inside. The Tigers draw fouls at an extremely high rate and are a plus offensive-rebounding roster. And as expected with their length, they're great at both forcing turnovers and defending 2-point attempts.
Their biggest issue has come from the perimeter. The Tigers allow opponents to shoot nearly 45% of all attempts from the perimeter, where they’re converting at a 35.8% clip (288th). They're 315th in Open 3 Rate.
If McMahon can clean up the perimeter woes, I wouldn’t be surprised to see LSU pull off a handful of upsets at home in SEC play.
South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina is an impressive 11-1, with wins over Virginia Tech and Grand Canyon in the process. The second year of the Lamont Paris era has been a pleasant surprise, though the Gamecocks' strength of schedule isn’t exactly difficult.
When looking at this team in the preseason, the big discussion was how a squad littered with experienced transfers would gel. The answer has been extremely well thus far. The Gamecocks shoot 3s at an extremely high rate, don’t turn over the ball and sit around 100th in both 2-point and 3-point offense.
Defensively, this roster is a funnel inside the arc. It limits 3s and is 22nd in 2-point defense. While South Carolina isn’t the tallest team, it's been excellent at defending the pick-and-roll and mid-range.
I would expect the Gamecocks to struggle as SEC play picks up, but they’re definitely worth keeping an eye on.
Meechie Johnson Jr., a former Ohio State transfer, has been excellent thus far. He leads the team in scoring (18.3 PPG), while B.J. Mack (14.4 PPG) is right behind him. Both players are names to keep an eye on, as they take over 30% of the shots when on the floor.
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia had to overhaul its roster and is a surprising 9-3, though its schedule has been relatively easy.
Defense is its calling card, as it ranks inside the top 50 at defending 2s and 3s.
The issue has been the Bulldogs' inability to clean up the glass on both sides of the floor. Georgia is 205th in eFG% and likes to push the tempo, but it's really struggled to find offensive rhythm.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Vanderbilt is a complete mess and is 4-8 thus far. The 'Dores had to fix up their roster significantly from a year ago and did just take Memphis down to the wire on the road.
But this is a team that should struggle plenty and finish dead last in the SEC.
In fact, Vandy is projected to lose every single game in SEC play on KenPom. It's outside the top 300 in 3-point shooting, 358th in defending the perimeter itself and it doesn't force many turnovers.
Jerry Stackhouse tries to use his bench that has a lot of upperclassmen, but success hasn’t followed. Ezra Manjon can have his moments and Tasos Kamateros shoots 45% from 3, but the rest of the team has really struggled to get much going.
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