This year's SEC is arguably one of the greatest college basketball conferences of all-time, especially as it continues its quest to top the Big East's mark for most automatic bids (11) to the NCAA Tournament in a single season.
That makes the SEC the most marquee conference tournament of Champ Week this season.
Read below for SEC Tournament picks and odds, including four first-round predictions for Wednesday, March 12.
(There's an option for a four-leg parlay below.)
SEC Tournament First-Round Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 9:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
South Carolina vs. Arkansas
The South Carolina Gamecocks will take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in the first round of the SEC Tournament.
Arkansas has had a decent first year under coach John Calipari. It finished 8-10 in conference play with a 19-12 overall record. Arkansas is on the bubble right now and must make a solid run in the SEC Tournament.
The Gamecocks will stand in their way and would love to play spoiler to one of their rivals. South Carolina has had one of its worst years, with a 2-16 record in conference play. However, the Gamecocks just put a thumping on the Hogs less than two weeks ago, winning 72-53.
Collin Murray-Boyles is an All-SEC player for the Gamecocks and will dominate the Razorbacks on all levels.
This should be a much closer rematch, and I think the spread indicates exactly that. The Razorbacks are dealing with injuries and will be without two top scorers, Boogie Fland and Adou Thiero.
I expect the Gamecocks to keep this close, if not pull off the upset. I’ll gladly take the points, so lock this in and meet me on the dance floor.
Pick: South Carolina +4.5 (Play to +3.5)
Texas vs. Vanderbilt
By Jim Root
Vanderbilt won the only meeting between these two teams this season by eight points in Nashville, but there was no return game in Austin.
I just don't really trust Texas' style of play, as it's focused fully on attacking in the mid-range. The Longhorns have a bunch of one-on-one players, and that's not going to cut it in a tournament setting like this.
Tre Johnson is amazing — he's going to get picked in the first round of the NBA draft this summer — but it's him, Jordan Pope, Tramon Mark and Arthur Kaluma trading iso ball and taking tough shots.
Vanderbilt is so much more with Jason Edwards, Tyler Nickel and AJ Hoggard, among others. And the Dores are so well coached by Mark Byington.
The Longhorns run pin-down screens for Johnson, and sometimes it works and he'll go for 30+ points, but he has to hit a bunch of tough shots in order for Texas to win. That's asking a lot of a freshman in his first college basketball postseason.
Texas' offense is just not sustainable because it's relying heavily on tough shot after tough shot.
Meanwhile, the Commodores are analytically savvy, as their shot diet is way better. They turn you over and they limit giveaways themselves, which is always a good way to help shot volume.
Give me the Dores here.
Pick: Vanderbilt -1.5
LSU vs. Mississippi State
Mississippi State hung around in the top 25 of the AP Poll for much of the season and was 7-6 in SEC play after taking down Texas A&M on February 17.
The Bulldogs have since lost four of five to end the regular season, dropping an overtime game to Texas and a one-point game to Arkansas in the final week.
It was a brutal way to end the year, but it could represent a good buy-low spot for Mississippi State in the league tournament against a Tigers squad that the Bulldogs beat by double digits less than two weeks ago.
Mississippi State won that first matchup by protecting the rim (seven blocks) and dominating in transition (18 fast-break points).
Josh Hubbard also ripped apart LSU’s typically good ball-screen coverage defense, scoring 15 points on 13 sets (1.15 PPP) en route to 30 total points on 7-for-9 2-point shooting and 10-for-11 from the free throw line.
Behind Hubbard, the Bulldogs shot 20-for-24 (83%) in the paint.
Aside from interior defense, LSU didn’t play awful. The Tigers battled on the boards and handled the ball alright against Chris Jans’ aggressive ball-screen coverage defense, ultimately winning the shot-volume battle by 13 (64 attempts to 51).
They finished well inside the arc (16-for-28, 57%), but lackluster perimeter shooting did them in (9-for-36, 25%), and that’s imperative given that LSU leads the league in 3-point rate (45%) while Mississippi State’s dribble-drive overhelp defense allows a high catch-and-shoot rate.
I’m inclined to think that LSU should see some much-needed positive shooting regression in the rematch and that the Tigers are undervalued relative to this line.
Some of the projection sites agree. Bart Torvik and Haslametrics project Mississippi State as just a six-point neutral-court favorite, while KenPom and our Action PRO Model project the number closer to 6.5 or seven.
It’s a tough pick because Hubbard and the Bulldogs should eat in transition and at the rim again.
But the Tigers have to be better in ball-screen coverage than they were in the first matchup (.77 PPP allowed on the season, 95th percentile, per Synergy), and they're typically good at avoiding fouls (33% free-throw rate allowed, third in the SEC, per KenPom).
Ultimately, the Tigers should hang around for 40 minutes if they make their 3s. I’ll take a shot on that happening by hitting this inflated line.
Pick: LSU +9.5 (Play to +8)
Oklahoma vs. Georgia
I’ve been hoping that Oklahoma won’t make the NCAA Tournament. There’s so much I dislike about the Sooners, mainly in the “extras” department (rebounding, turnovers, free throws).
Unfortunately, three wins in their final four games — combined with a 13-0 non-conference record (although against a weak schedule) — means they’ll most likely earn a bid regardless of this result on Wednesday. Bart Torvik projects that they have an 83% chance of making the tournament as an at-large.
Meanwhile, Torvik projects Georgia as a lock, and I think I agree after the Bulldogs won four straight to end the season, including a colossal home tilt with Florida.
That said, I think the Bulldogs will ride the “extras” to a convincing win in this matchup.
Georgia runs a pretty fun high-low, cutting and downhill pick-and-roll offense that generates plenty of interior opportunities. Specifically, the Bulldogs smash the offensive glass and live at the line — at the same time, Oklahoma can’t clean the boards and fouls incessantly.
Georgia hosted Oklahoma back in early January and pulled out a 10-point win because the Bulldogs won the rebounding battle by eight (including 12 offensive boards that led to 16 second-chance points), generated 15 points off turnovers and earned 37 free throw attempts (to Oklahoma’s nine).
The Bulldogs overcame a 3-for-17 (18%) 3-point shooting performance because of their effort in the extras. They could’ve won that game by 15 or 20 with more typical shooting splits.
I also trust Georgia’s defense against Oklahoma’s spread pick-and-roll offense led by star freshman guard Jeremiah Fears.
The Bulldogs are a borderline-elite ball-screen coverage defense (.82 PPP allowed, 87th percentile, per Synergy) and held the Sooners to 19 points on 28 sets (.62 PPP) in the first head-to-head meeting while owning the rim with eight blocks.
Fears finished with two points on 1-for-7 shooting with four turnovers to just five assists, arguably his worst performance of the season.
While I mostly expect Georgia to win on the extras, I don’t trust Oklahoma’s porous interior defense (317th in 2-point defense, 55%, per KenPom) to hang with Asa Newell in cutting, posting and high-low sets.
The star freshman scored 15 points on 5-for-9 interior shooting in the first matchup, while frontcourt running mate RJ Godfrey dropped 15 by generating five points on four post-up sets.
I like how the ‘Dawgs match up in this battle schematically, as shown in the first meeting. Georgia should roll if a few extra triples fall — perhaps from Newell himself.
Pick: Georgia ML -144 (Play to -155)
