TCU vs. Seton Hall Odds
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -110 | 129.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
| Seton Hall Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -110 | 129.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
Seton Hall and TCU meet in the final game of the Round of 64 on Friday night in what should be a defensive slugfest between the 8-9 seeds in the South Region.
The higher-seeded Pirates will be without star point guard Bryce Aiken, who has not played since Jan. 15. Seton Hall ended the regular season on a five-game win streak and were bounced by Connecticut in the Big East Tournament.
The Horned Frogs have had a roller-coaster of a season in the physical Big 12. They stormed back from down 20 to defeat Texas in the conference tournament before their eventual loss to Kansas.
The spread for this game has opened Seton Hall (-1) and has not moved. These are two extremely similar teams that rely on their defense to carry them to the finish line.
Will Seton Hall’s height in the interior prove to be too much for TCU? Or will Jamie Dixon’s Horned Frogs take advantage of a hobbled offense that has experienced its fair share of struggles without Aiken?
TCU Horned Frogs
It’s really fun seeing Jamie Dixon and TCU back in the NCAA Tournament. The Horned Frogs have had an impressive season, and winning a game in the Big Dance is the exclamation point they are looking for.
TCU has notched several big victories over the course of the season, including wins over Kansas, Texas Tech, and Texas.
The biggest reason why the Frogs have been able to go toe-to-toe with some of the Big 12’s best? That would be the top-25 defense that Dixon’s team boasts.
Much like his old groups at Pittsburgh, this team is extremely physical, it rebounds the basketball and competes non-stop for 40 minutes.
Against Seton Hall, TCU’s rebounding prowess will be tested against a long and athletic Pirate team.
Mike Miles and Damion Baugh have been the two most consistent scorers for the Frogs, and both are going to need to knock down some shots from the outside if the Frogs are to advance on Friday night.
Seton Hall Pirates
The Pirates finally seemed to have adjusted to life after Aiken. The offense lacked a consistent playmaker and relied too heavily on isolation, which led to back-to-back losses against St. John’s and Marquette.
But since that last loss to the Golden Eagles, Seton Hall has lost to just two teams: No. 2 seed Villanova and No. 5 seed Connecticut (twice).
Much of that has to do with the breakout of Kadary Richmond. He showed flashes of his playmaking ability early in the season but has since grown into his role as the quarterback of the offense with Aiken out.
The 6-foot-6 Syracuse transfer ranks top three in conference play in assist rate and steal rate, proving to be efficient on both sides of the floor.
Seton Hall’s offense comes primarily through isolation. It’s 65th in the country, per ShotQuality, with many of its shots ending in off-the-dribble 3s and mid-range jumpers.
The Pirates aren’t a great shooting squad and normally rely on second-chance opportunities and getting to the foul line as their main source of offense. This is the fifth-tallest team in the country.
Their length and athleticism is a big reason toward their dominant defense. The Pirates are third in defending shots attacking the rim and seventh out of the half-court, per ShotQuality. They’re efficient in transition and force opponents into difficult 3s, too.
It won’t be easy to break down this Pirates defense, which often leads to defensive slugfests. That’s right in Kevin Willard’s wheelhouse and has been the moneymaker for the Pirates all season long.
TCU vs. Seton Hall Betting Pick
If a team is going to beat TCU, it has to keep it off the offensive glass.
The Horned Frogs are second in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, and while Seton Hall isn’t a great defensive rebounding team, it definitely has the size advantage down low and owns some other advantages that I believe will outweigh the advantages TCU has on the boards.
First off, Seton Hall is third in the nation in PPP on attempts at rim, which is where basically all of TCU’s shot attempts come. The Frogs have the eighth-highest rim frequency in the nation, but they’re 320th in PPP on shot attempts at rim, per ShotQuality.
That’s a huge advantage for Seton Hall even if it does give up a few too many offensive rebounds.
Secondly, Seton Hall is seventh nationally in PPP allowed in half-court defense. TCU plays a pretty slow pace with a high percentage of possessions coming in the half-court.
Seton Hall is not a great offensive team, and it’s been missing one of its best offensive threats in Bryce Aiken for a while now. But the Pirates are good in isolation and in off-the-dribble 3-pointers, which TCU isn’t great against defensively.
So, I think this is a good matchup for Seton Hall. I love the Pirates on the moneyline at -110.
Another thing in support of our Seton Hall moneyline play is the ShotQualityBets model, making Seton Hall -4.5 point favorites based on over 40 ShotQuality variables. For 10% off ShotQualityBets' March Madness package, use promo code: ACTION.
Pick: Seton Hall ML -110 (Play to -120)
