The NBA All-Star break is a favorite time among wiseguys as recreational NBA bettors who don't regularly wager on college basketball flood the market to satisfy that thirst for action. In fact, our internal betting data shows that today's college basketball matchups are already getting much heavier action than what's expected most mornings.
With this influx of public money hitting the market, oddsmakers react by shading their opening lines to the "public side" in anticipation that recreational bettors will overwhelmingly, and sometimes blindly, bet the favorites in most matchups.
This is music to the ears of sharp bettors, allowing them to pick off soft lines. That's exactly what's happening in one key 3:30 p.m. ET matchup this morning.
Nebraska opened as a 2-point road favorite over Illinois, and the public has not by shy about backing the Cornhuskers. Seventy-nine percent of spread tickets and 89% of dollars wagered have backed coach Tim Miles' Nebraska squad . Even more importantly, the handle on this game is huge for this early in the morning, meaning there is already public liability building. This should end up being one of the most heavily bet games of the day.
Wiseguys clearly thought this opening line was off and quickly popped Illinois down to +1 across the sports betting market. They'll likely continue to bet the Illini leading up to tip, as oddsmakers attempt to balance this clear sharp vs. public disagreement.
Photo via Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
