The SMU Mustangs take on the NC State Wolfpack in Raleigh, NC. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on The CW.
SMU is favored by 3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -155. The total is set at 145 points.
Here are my SMU vs. NC State predictions and college basketball picks for January 25, 2025.
SMU vs NC State Prediction
My Pick: SMU -2.5 (Play to -3)
My SMU vs NC State best bet is on the Mustangs spread, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
SMU vs NC State Odds
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 145 -110 / -110 | -155 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 145 -110 / -110 | +130 |
- SMU vs NC State spread: SMU -3
- SMU vs NC State over/under: 145 points
- SMU vs NC State moneyline: SMU -155, NC State +130
- SMU vs NC State best bet: SMU -2.5 (Play to -3)
Spread
I like SMU here.
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total.
My Pick: SMU -2.5 (Play to -3)
SMU vs NC State College Basketball Betting Preview
SMU Basketball
I think the spot lines up nicely for SMU following a tough loss to Louisville. The Mustangs got thrashed for 1.45 PPP and 98 points in what felt like a must-win game for their NCAA Tournament chances.
While NC State is pretty mediocre on both ends, SMU is outstanding on the offensive end, ranking 27th in offensive efficiency while being outstanding at keeping possessions alive.
The Mustangs dominate on the offensive glass, ranking in the top 15 nationally in offensive rebounding rate. They have a plethora of bigs who help achieve that goal — 7-foot-2 Samet Yigitoglu, leading rebounder Matt Cross, Keon Ambrose-Hylton and Jerrell Colbert.
Guard Boopie Miller is the heart and soul of this SMU team, though. He's coming off his worst game of the season, as he scored just seven points on 2-of-12 shooting with stud point guard Chucky Hepburn dominating him all night.
Miller won't have a matchup as difficult as Hepburn in this one, so I expect him to bounce back and score near his season average of 14 points.
Andy Enfield's squad can shoot the ball from 3, but it doesn't take a ton of treys. The Mustangs shoot a dazzling 38% from distance while attempting 3s just 34% of the time.
Four rotation players are shooting better than 38% from downtown, including 43% from Chuck Harris and 41% from Kario Oquendo.
The crazy thing is Miller is a good shooter, but he's sitting at only 32% from distance. He should get better from there as the year rolls on.
NC State Basketball
NC State is in desperate need of a win. The Wolfpack are losers of three consecutive games, including a road loss to Virginia Tech and a home loss to California.
During the second part of this home swing, the Pack will look to disable the Ponies in Raleigh.
The Wolfpack struggle on both ends of the floor, ranking 123rd in defensive efficiency and 96th in offensive efficiency.
Two major concerns stand out in this battle.
The biggest is rebounding, which is a nightmare waiting to happen. The Wolfpack aren't good on the glass at either end, ranking 320th in defensive rebounding rate and 177th in offensive rebounding rate. They allowed 13+ offensive rebounds in three consecutive games, fittingly all losses.
Second, shooting is a huge concern, as the Pack hit just 31% from downtown. They only have one shooter — Jayden Taylor — who you can truly rely on to connect at a consistent clip.
Taylor is shooting 35% from downtown, but he's the only rotation player other than Breon Pass who the defense needs to worry about. For instance, Marcus Hill is NC State's top scorer and a great driver. The lack of shooting greatly minimizes Hill's effectiveness, since the defense can sag off the non-shooters and limit driving lanes.
I think NC State's lack of shooting will sting a bit more here. The best way to attack SMU's defense is by shooting and using pick-and-pops to get the Mustangs' 7-foot-2 big in space, but nobody on the Pack's roster can pull it off.
This matchup is a very difficult one for Kevin Keatts' squad.
SMU vs. NC State Betting Analysis
I looked to fade SMU in its game versus Louisville, but I'm jumping on the Pony train for this matchup.
Between the advantages on the glass, shooting and overall talent, SMU should control this contest.
Plus, it's not like playing at NC State is as tiring as playing at Cameron Indoor or other venues.
The line jumped a bit to SMU -2.5, but I would take the Mustangs up to -3.
