The South Dakota State Jackrabbits take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, Ala. Tip-off is set for 3 p.m. ET on SEC Network+.
Alabama is favored by 21 points on the spread with a moneyline of -4000. The total is set at 167.5 points.
Here are my South Dakota State vs. Alabama predictions and college basketball picks for December 29, 2024.
South Dakota State vs Alabama Prediction
My Pick: Alabama -21 (Play to -22)
My South Dakota State vs Alabama best bet is on the Crimson Tide spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
South Dakota State vs Alabama Odds, Spread, Pick
| South Dakota State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22.5 -110 | 167.5 -110 / -110 | +1600 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22.5 -110 | 167.5 -110 / -110 | -5000 |
- South Dakota State vs Alabama spread: Alabama -22.5
- South Dakota State vs Alabama over/under: 167.5 points
- South Dakota State vs Alabama moneyline: Alabama -5000, South Dakota State +1600
- South Dakota State vs Alabama best bet: Alabama -21 (Play to -22)
My South Dakota State vs Alabama College Basketball Betting Preview
South Dakota State Basketball
South Dakota State became a Division I program in 2005. Since then, the Jackrabbits have become one of the country’s premier mid-major programs. They’ve won 10+ league games in 14 straight full seasons (only went 9-3 in COVID-shortened 2020-21), and they’re a favorite to win the Summit once again.
That's despite being an extremely young team: six freshmen see the court, and SDSU ranks 335th in Division I experience, per KenPom.
This year’s legitimacy stems from the dominance of Oscar Cluff in the paint. The Australian big man has been a force against all levels of competition, shooting a ridiculous 71.4% from the field and racking up 10.8 rebounds per game. Even Boise State struggled to handle him; he put up 19 and 14 against the Broncos’ impressive frontcourt.
However, his effectiveness waned in recent contests at Nevada and Colorado, largely due to an injury that has had him in and out of a walking boot. However, Cluff has had over two weeks off since his last game, so he should return to peak form.
The Jackrabbits’ offense is typically set up as four-out around Cluff in the paint. The Jackrabbits’ young guards have thrived, with him drawing so much defensive attention.
Joe Sayler is a sniper, while Kalen Garry has become the primary perimeter playmaker as a sophomore. Owen Larson and Matthew Mors space the floor in the backcourt and frontcourt, respectively.
Defensively, the Jackrabbits play an extremely conservative style, given their youth on the perimeter and Cluff’s relative lack of mobility in space. That means foes get shots over the top, but the Jackrabbits clean the glass at an elite rate (ranked second nationally in defensive rebound rate, per KenPom).
They also have a burgeoning stopper, as Stoney Hadnot is a well-built wing that can blanket various positions.
Alabama Basketball
The Tide escaped back home after a harrowingly close call at North Dakota a week before Christmas. After a narrow road win over the Hawks, the Tide took care of Kent State by 27 in a midweek clash that showcased a top-10 team nationally against a legitimate MAC contender.
To Alabama’s credit, the Tide made quick work of the expected blowout. Alabama got up 20-4, an impressive assertion after the Tide escaped a serious challenge from the University of North Dakota a week prior.
Nate Oats is well-known for being one of the strongest schedulers in the power conferences, and hosting the Jackrabbits of South Dakota State emphasizes that reputation.
Few other teams will host such a potent foe, but Alabama is well-equipped to handle the Jackrabbits. Alabama’s style is built to destroy lesser opponents. The Tide play fast and fire triples, increasing the variance of each individual game and amplifying their own talent.
Last year’s Tide struggled defensively. Crucially — and to much fanfare this offseason — they added Clifford Omoruyi as an anchor at the rim. He hasn't outright fixed Alabama on that end, but he's provided a legitimate shot-blocker and intimidator that prevents foes from forming a layup line.
Even with Omoruyi, defense has been Alabama’s Achilles' heel. Part of that is a smallish backcourt with Mark Sears and Aden Holloway logging big minutes. Freshman Labaron Philon still needs to add strength to his frame.
Primary shutdown wing Latrell Wrightsell Jr. was lost for the year to injury, leaving a major void on the perimeter. Chris Youngblood has returned from his own ailment to bolster the offense, but he lacks Wrightsell’s prowess on the other end.
South Dakota State vs. Alabama Betting Analysis
A lot of this game will come down to Alabama’s 3-point shooting. The Tide take a ton (25th nationally in 3-point attempt rate, per KenPom), and South Dakota State’s defensive structure allows it (350th in defensive 3-point attempt rate).
If the jumpers are falling, this could be a laugher from the start.
However, as announcers love to tell you, some of the best perimeter looks come via second chances. South Dakota State limits those opportunities as well as anyone in the country.
If the long-range attack is not working for the Tide, Omoruyi’s ability to handle Cluff in the paint will be a major storyline. If he can put up a fight one-on-one, then the Jackrabbits’ offense can have issues generating good looks.
The Jackrabbits thrive when teams have to double-team the big man, putting them in rotation against a team that collectively moves the ball with precision.
I side with Cliff being able to compete with Cluff and the Tide gunners having a big day against a packed-in defensive structure.
Before Christmas, the Tide crushed Kent State, a mid-major of similar caliber to South Dakota State. I expect a similarly strong effort for a team with a major overall speed and athleticism advantage.
I would bet the Tide up to -22 in this one.
