The South Dakota State Jackrabbits take on the Nevada Wolf Pack in Reno, NV. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET on Mountain West Network.
Nevada is favored by 11.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -575. The total is set at 140 points.
Here’s my South Dakota State vs. Nevada predictions and college basketball picks for December 11, 2024.
South Dakota State vs Nevada Prediction
My Pick: Over 140
My South Dakota State vs Nevada best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
South Dakota State vs Nevada Odds
| South Dakota State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 140 -108 / -112 | +425 |
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 140 -108 / -112 | -575 |
- South Dakota State vs Nevada spread: Nevada -11.5
- South Dakota State vs Nevada over/under: 140 points
- South Dakota State vs Nevada moneyline: Nevada -575, South Dakota State +425
- South Dakota State vs Nevada best bet: Over 140
Spread
This spread looks spot on to me. Well done, oddsmakers.
Moneyline
Nevada is reeling after two disappointing losses. The moneyline should be safe, though there's a chance South Dakota State has the best player in the floor in imposing big man Oscar Cluff.
Over/Under
I am expecting both teams to find paths to efficient scoring. So long as South Dakota State can speed Nevada up a little bit, the over looks appealing to me.
My Pick: Over 140
South Dakota State vs Nevada College Basketball Betting Preview
South Dakota State Basketball
Surprise, surprise – South Dakota State looks like the class of the Summit League once again. Over the last five seasons, South Dakota State has three outright league titles and shared a fourth, going 65-15 over that span.
The school is still chasing an elusive NCAA Tournament win, though, and it may have found the centerpiece to accomplish that goal.
Cluff was a starter for Washington State last year, an at-large NCAA Tournament team and Round of 32 participant. Somehow, the Jackrabbits swiped him from the portal despite copious power conference teams needing big man help. Cluff arrived with huge expectations, but he has far exceeded even the rosiest assessments.
He’s a two-way powerhouse on the glass, and South Dakota State’s entire offense runs through him in a four-out alignment. He’s an efficient finisher around the bucket, he’s an 80% free throw shooter so you can't foul him and he’s a savvy distributor to the Jackrabbits’ arsenal of perimeter shooters.
Chief among those are Joe Sayler and Owen Larson, a redshirt freshman and true freshman, respectively. That duo can focus on scoring thanks to Cluff’s presence, plus the playmaking of burgeoning sophomore Kalen Garry.
Garry gained valuable experience as a rookie last season, and he’s a proven, capable floor leader despite some ups and downs as a scorer.
Cluff also keys the defense. He’s the perfect drop coverage big man; he’s not wildly mobile around the perimeter nor an elite shot-blocker, but he’s huge and knows how to stay vertical while contesting shots. His ruthless work on the glass – 12th nationally in defensive rebound rate – fuels South Dakota State’s No. 2 ranking in the country in that category.
The Jackrabbits’ defense is most vulnerable over the top, landing 337th in 3-point attempt rate (KenPom).
Nevada Basketball
A campaign that began with so much promise has hit a rough patch recently. Nevada’s 6-1 start – including wins over Santa Clara, VCU and Oklahoma State – bumped the Wolf Pack to the top of Mountain West betting boards.
But a two-game slide has shown a more mortal side.
Dropping a game to Washington State, even at home, is not shameful. But the Cougars were extremely short-handed without star wing Cedric Coward and other role players, making Nevada’s lifeless performance all the more concerning.
A follow-up defeat at Loyola Marymount this past Saturday exacerbated the worries.
Peaking under the hood gives reason to avoid the panic button, however. According to ShotQuality, both of those Nevada losses were scored as “wins” based on the shots each team created.
More specifically, Nevada shot a combined 9-for-40 (22.5%) from deep; Wazzu and LMU combined to hit 23-of-60 (38.3%). A shot-making swoon is understandable.
Nevada still has its greatest sustainable edge: gargantuan positional size. Per KenPom, Nevada is fourth nationally in average height, bolstered by spindly 6-foot-9 point guard Kobe Sanders.
Backup speedster Tyler Rolison is the only rotation piece shorter than 6-foot–5. Brandon Love is a shot-blocking force around the rim, and fellow 6-foot-10 forward Nick Davidson is a major offensive weapon.
So long as he and Tre Coleman snap out of their shooting funks, Nevada will be fine long-term.
South Dakota State vs. Nevada Betting Analysis
Based on my numbers and my own subjective analysis of the game, the spread is about right.
With Cluff back in the fold, South Dakota State can challenge the Wolf Pack inside, but Nevada is a rightful double-digit favorite.
Instead, I will bet the over here. Despite the recent two-game slump, Nevada still ranks 12th nationally in 3-point percentage. The Wolf Pack have several gunners – Sanders, Davidson, Xavier DuSell – capable of lighting up the packed-in Jackrabbits defense.
If regression hits strongly while at home, Nevada could rain down triples.
On the other end, though, South Dakota State can also find points. Cluff is simply too dominant to be defended one-on-one, even by the likes of Love and K.J. Hymes. If/when Nevada has to send double teams his way, Cluff will spray the ball out to waiting long-range bombers.
Nevada is also shockingly vulnerable on the defensive glass, meaning Cluff and backup bigs Damon Wilkinson and William Whorton could get some easy putbacks inside.
The key component is pace. Nevada wants to grind games out in the half-court. However, it will play a little more up-tempo against the right opponent, and South Dakota State wants to play faster.
If the Jackrabbits can get Nevada into the high 60s in possession count – like Sam Houston State, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma State and Wazzu did – this total will be too low.
I would bet this over up to 143.
