The St. Francis (PA) Red Flash take on the Alabama State Hornets in the NCAA Tournament First Four. Tip-off is set for 6:40 p.m. ET on truTV.
Alabama State is favored by 4 points on the spread with a moneyline of -185. The total is set at 139.5 points.
Here’s my St. Francis (PA) vs. Alabama State predictions and college basketball picks for March 18, 2025.
St. Francis (PA) vs Alabama State Prediction
My Pick: Alabama State -4
My St. Francis (PA) vs Alabama State best bet is on the Hornets spread, with the best odds currently available at bet365. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
St. Francis (PA) vs Alabama State Odds
| St. Francis (PA) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 139.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
| Alabama State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 139.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
- St. Francis (PA) vs Alabama State spread: Alabama State -4
- St. Francis (PA) vs Alabama State over/under: 139.5 points
- St. Francis (PA) vs Alabama State moneyline: Alabama State -185, St. Francis (PA) +155
- St. Francis (PA) vs Alabama State best bet: Alabama State -4
Spread
I like the favorite here. The Hornets are the better team with a better, more veteran group of guards.
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
St. Francis games have been slow and inefficient lately, but I think this number is a fair price without much edge.
My Pick: Alabama State -4
St. Francis (PA) vs Alabama State College Basketball Betting Preview
Shout out to the Red Flash of Saint Francis, who are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1991. They did so in true underdog style, toppling No. 1 seed Central Connecticut State on the road in the league title game.
SFU is the only tourney team with an overall record under .500 (16-17).
This team is young. Two freshmen and two sophomores are among the rotation’s top six, and the Red Flash have no seniors on the roster whatsoever.
Coach Rob Krimmel told CBS Sports his team has $0 worth of NIL, which unsurprisingly resulted in personnel losses to the transfer portal. SFU ranks 349th in D-I Experience, per KenPom, as a result.
Despite all that, the Red Flash won three straight NEC Tournament games by exactly three points. The backcourt, led by Australian JUCO transfer Riley Parker, made just enough big plays late in those games to secure the wins.
Due to their lack of size, the Red Flash play four out around forward Valentino Pinedo or run ball screens with Parker and Pinedo, and they have enough shooting to space the court.
Along with the smooth-shooting Parker, freshman guards Juan Cranford Jr. and Jeremy Clayville can fill it up from deep, and wings Daemar Kelly and Bobby Rosenberger III can at least knock down a shot if their defenders wander too far.
SFU ranks top-20 nationally in Spot Up rate, per Synergy, underscoring how the Flash want to generate shots.
Defensively, Krimmel knows his lack of size is an issue, so the Red Flash play a compact man-to-man in hopes of limiting rim attempts.
If opponents do get to the bucket, there’s very little resistance, as Pinedo isn't a shot blocker.
On the flip side, the Hornets are trending way up. After a middling 5-5 start to SWAC play, they won 10 of their final 11 games, thriving as the extremely rare SWAC team that takes amazing care of the ball.
Led by the terrific guard quartet of TJ Madlock, CJ Hines and Amarr Knox, Bama State ranked fifth nationally in turnover rate on offense. The next best SWAC team ranked 151st, and the last SWAC team to even rank top-100 came all the way back in 2018 (!).
ASU ranks 14th in the country in turnover margin, frequently helping it win the shot volume battle against similar caliber competition.
That is especially impressive considering how the Hornets get their points: primarily in transition and in isolation. Playing up-tempo typically leads to more miscues, which underscores just how great the Hornets’ backcourt is.
Madlock is the son of coach Tony Madlock, and the Hornets’ boss has the luxury of attacking an opponents’ worst defenders thanks to ASU’s depth of playmaking.
Defensively, ASU is much more befitting of the typical SWAC profile: reliant on pressure, both in the half court and often extended full court (press 13.7% of the time, per Synergy, top-70 rate nationally). They foul a ton and struggle on the glass, and they can struggle against pick-and-roll ball handlers.
Structurally, Alabama State is a rare SWAC team that rates highly in year-over-year retention. The Hornets rank 30th nationally in KenPom’s Minutes Continuity metric; the next-highest SWAC squad was 119th.
They don’t have a ton of size, but a center rotation of Jasteven Walker (thin, stretchy 6-foot-10 forward) and Ubong Okon (physical 7-foot-1 rebounding beast) is solid.
Plus, Georgetown transfer D’Ante Bass has emerged into a key bench piece during the Hornets’ late surge after struggling badly for most of the first three months of the season.
So, how should you bet this game? Well, Bama State enters playing better basketball, having covered five of its last six and eight of 11. The Hornets rank in the top 25 of Haslametrics’ Momentum rating, meaning their recent performances have been stronger than their season norm.
SFU, meanwhile, has more of a “team of destiny” vibe. The Red Flash won three consecutive OT games to end the regular season on top of the three tight victories in the postseason.
Clearly, they make a few winning plays down the stretch. However, their trio of NEC Tournament opponents shot a dismal 13-of-62 (21%) from beyond the arc.
Giving more than a possession against that kind of late game voodoo is terrifying, but I like Alabama State here as the categorically better team with two key matchup advantages.
The first is that SFU grades out terribly against pressing defenses. The Red Flash faced presses at a top 20 rate nationally, but they scored in the 11th percentile on a points per possession basis and turned the ball over on almost a quarter of their possessions.
ASU’s terrific guard group will heat up the ball and get some easy transition baskets off those miscues.
The other key edge is related to that: SFU’s proclivity to launch jumpers means it will not take advantage of Alabama State’s fouling. The Red Flash rank 357th nationally in free throw rate, as their guards are more finesse catch-and-shoot types.
In the opening game of the 2025 NCAA Tournament, I'll ride with the better group of guards and the better overall team that should dominate the turnover battle, especially as the Hornets have surged in recent weeks.
I’d lay up to -4.
