The St. John's Red Storm take on the Villanova Wildcats in Villanova, PA. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET on FS1.
St. John's is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -155. The total is set at 139.5 points.
Here are my St. John's vs. Villanova predictions and college basketball picks for February 12, 2025.
St. John's vs Villanova Prediction
My Pick: St. John's -2.5 (Play to -4)
My St. John's vs Villanova best bet is on the Red Storm spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
St. John's vs Villanova Odds
| St. John's Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -118 | 139.5 -112 / -108 | -155 |
| Villanova Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -102 | 139.5 -112 / -108 | +130 |
- St. John's vs Villanova spread: St. John's -2.5
- St. John's vs Villanova over/under: 139.5 points
- St. John's vs Villanova moneyline: St. John's -155, Villanova +130
- St. John's vs Villanova best bet: St. John's -2.5 (Play to -4)
Spread
I like the Red Storm up to -4.
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I also like the under. I don't see many points coming here. Between Nova's pace and St. John's defense, it should be a low scoring game.
My Pick: St. John's -2.5 (Play to -4)
St. John's vs Villanova College Basketball Betting Preview
Villanova is eyeing down a third consecutive season with no NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats enter this contest on a two-game winning streak, and beating the top team in the Big East would be a huge lift for their resume.
From a betting perspective, you can point at the spot factor and consider Villanova. The case against St. John's is the Johnnies are "due for a loss," as they haven't been defeated since New Year's Eve versus Creighton.
This game is on the road, but the Johnnies are old and beat UConn at Gampel Pavilion, thus, that's not a real concern of mine.
Last year, Villanova couldn't score the basketball, but it was an elite defensive team. It's the total inverse in 2024-25, as the Wildcats rank 16th in offensive efficiency compared to a ghastly 129th in defensive efficiency.
It doesn't do anything well defensively; opponents shoot 34% from 3 and 49% from 2-point range.
My biggest concern for Villanova is its poor turnover rate (16%) and shaky numbers defending the arc (34% from 3). The lack of turnovers speaks to inadequate ball pressure, which is a real problem against this bigger Johnnies team.
The 3-point problems likely won't be a huge factor here since St. John's is a poor shooting squad. However, the Wildcats' slow tempo will make it hard for them to fight back from a hole.
Eric Dixon is arguably the best player in the Big East. He's the guy Kyle Neptune draws up plays for in clutch moments, and for a good reason. The veteran forward leads the country with 23 points per game and is one of five Wildcats who average five-plus points a night.
We'll see how Dixon deals with the quickness and physicality of St. John's.
I just don't think the market fully believes in St. John's yet. The Red Storm rank 16th in KenPom, but what about this team doesn't scream top-10 caliber?
I know the Red Storm are mediocre on offense, ranking 83rd in efficiency, but still, I feel better about the Red Storm offensively than I would most other teams with their numbers.
Why? Well, they're the second-best defense in the country (per KenPom) and want to play a full-court game instead of a half-court game.
Rick Pitino is a tactician. He wants to get games to fall where it benefits his teams. In this case, that includes forcing turnovers via full-court pressure (22% turnover rate) and dominating the offensive glass (37% offensive rebound rate)
If a mixture of those things occurs, St. John's can make up for a poor 49% effective field goal percentage and its 29% shooting from 3.
Kadary Richmond is becoming a key cog for the Red Storm. He scored 12+ points in six consecutive games, and his 6-foot-6 frame should be a problem for the smaller Nova guards.
Richmond and star wing RJ Luis Jr. are pivotal to St. John's success. Luis is one of the more underrated players in the sport. He ranks ninth in KenPom's National Player of the Year rankings and should be the Big East Player of the Year front runner.
I just think St. John's is way too big — every starter is 6-foot-4 or taller — and too physical for the Wildcats to beat.
