The St. Thomas Tommies take on the Omaha Mavericks in Sioux Falls, SD. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
St. Thomas is favored by 4 points on the spread with a moneyline of -180. The total is set at 150.5 points.
Here’s my St. Thomas vs. Omaha predictions and college basketball picks for March 9, 2025.
St. Thomas Tommies vs. Omaha Mavericks Prediction, Picks
My Pick: Omaha +4
My St. Thomas vs Omaha best bet is on the Mavericks spread, with the best odds currently available at bet365. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
St. Thomas vs. Omaha Odds, Spread, Lines
| St. Thomas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -105 | 152 -110o / -110u | -185 |
| Omaha Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -115 | 152 -110o / -110u | +155 |
- St. Thomas vs. Omaha spread: St. Thomas -4, Omaha +4
- St. Thomas vs. Omaha over/under: 152
- St. Thomas vs. Omaha moneyline: St. Thomas ML -185, Omaha +155
Spread
This game has a strange twist with Omaha having already earned the Summit's automatic bid. Even so, I think the Mavericks compete.
Moneyline
I prefer getting the points here, rather than backing Omaha on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no strong take on the total here. Both teams can score very efficiently against each other, but pace typically slows down in tournament finals.
My Pick: Omaha +4
St. Thomas vs. Omaha NCAAB Preview
The Tommies are on the precipice of winning their first conference tournament since elevating to Division I in 2021-22. Unfortunately, this is the final season they're ineligible for the NCAA Tournament, so even a tournament crown won't lead to the promised land of the Big Dance.
Credit to Johnny Tauer, the Tommies’ head coach, for elevating his program to this extent in just a few short years. St. Thomas leapt from Division III – yes, skipping Division II entirely – and is already one of the premier programs in the Summit League.
Tauer is an offensive mastermind, and this St. Thomas squad embodies his brilliance. Every Tommies big man can shoot from the perimeter, allowing the Tommies to have fantastic spacing and opening up driving lanes for their downhill-driving guards.
Miles Barnstable is the star, a D-III transfer himself from Wisconsin-Whitewater. Barnstable is a physical driver who lives at the free throw line, and his perimeter jumper is potent enough to keep defenders honest.
The presences of lethal stretch forwards Kendall Blue, Carter Bjerke and Ben Oosterbaan make it incredibly difficult for defenses to give Barnstable enough attention.
The Tommies also have a balanced backcourt alongside Barnstable. Drake Dobbs is a perfect blend of shooting and playmaking, while Ryan Dufault is a terrific rim threat despite his 6-foot-0, 185-pound frame. Ben Nau is a catch-and-shoot specialist.
Efficiency is the name of the game for the Tommies. They rank third in the entire country in effective field goal percentage, per KenPom, landing in the top 10 in both 2-point and 3-point percentage. Per ShotQuality, St. Thomas ranks third nationally in Rim & 3 Rate and eighth in Shot Making.
The offense is a well-oiled machine of spacing, unselfishness and deadeye marksmanship.
St. Thomas does lack athleticism, though, and the skill-based roster build undercuts the defensive upside. Tauer’s scheme aims to prevent easy buckets, allowing his team to win perimeter shooting contests.
You won't find any better vibes in the entire mid-major world than those emanating from the Omaha locker room. After a disappointing non-conference slate, the Mavericks caught fire in Summit League play, and they found a terrific tradition to represent their run.
After each win, the Mavericks lay the wrestling smackdown on a trash can. It serves as a rallying cry for the team, and with each bruising victory, Omaha’s mass appeal increases. Should it earn a first round upset in the NCAA Tournament, the trash can destruction video will be an all-timer.
On the court, head coach Chris Crutchfield relies on the best perimeter shooting group in the Summit (a deadly conference on the whole) to complement his star forward, Marquel Sutton.
The Summit Player of the Year, Sutton is a total mismatch nightmare thanks to his combination of skill and strength. At 6-foot-8, 225 pounds, Sutton can barrel his way to the rim, step out and hit a jumper, or feast in the mid-post.
He racked up over 20 points per game in league play, as Summit opponents simply don't have an answer for him
JJ White, Tony Osburn, Ja’Sean Glover, Lance Waddles and Kamryn Thomas comprise the Mavs’ primary perimeter rotation.
White, Osburn and Thomas are all shooting over 40% from beyond the arc, and Glover isn't far behind. White is also a smooth operator in ball screens, frequently forming a devastating pick-and-roll duo with Sutton.
Like most of the conference, the Mavericks struggle defensively. Despite playing Sutton alongside a center (either Joshua Streit or Isaac Ondekane, two physical brutes on the offensive glass), the Mavs struggle mightily to protect the rim.
Instead, Crutchfield has constructed a tight shell scheme that doesn’t gamble and cleans the glass at an elite rate. Sutton is terrific as a “grab and go” beast on the glass.
Betting Analysis
This handicap is one of the stranger ones you’ll find due to the underlying dynamics. With Omaha having already punched its ticket to the NCAA Tournament, the Mavericks are playing for pride here.
Contrast that to St. Thomas, which is suiting up for its final game of the season – aka the Tommies’ Super Bowl.
The first two meetings were about as evenly matched as you’ll find. Each team won by 11 points at home, with the winner posting north of 1.20 points per possession in each contest.
Neither could stop the other around the basket, and though Omaha won the glass battle on aggregate, the Tommies’ tremendous ball control helped offset that disadvantage.
Sutton will almost surely approach 20 points in this one, as the Tommies completely lack the kind of big, athletic forward needed to corral him. He averaged 22 points per game in the two regular season clashes, and with the higher stakes of this matchup,
I have a hard time getting past the motivation angle. As much as this game might mean to Omaha as a program, the fact remains that the Mavericks will see their name on Selection Sunday no matter what happens.
St. Thomas, on the other hand, is looking to fully legitimize itself as a D-I program, and a conference tournament title would be a huge springboard into next season’s official NCAA Tournament eligibility.
Overall, though, this game is a coin flip to me. Omaha remains slightly undervalued analytically because of how rocky its November and December were, but the Mavericks flipped a switch in league play.
Getting 3.5 — or even 4 points — is too tempting to pass up.
