Stanford vs Arizona Odds, Pick
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -110 | 163.5 -110o / -110u | +1000 |
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -110 | 163.5 -110o / -110u | -2000 |
Heading into Sunday's rematch in Tucson, I can almost guarantee that the Arizona Wildcats re-watched the Stanford Cardinal dropping 102 points and 15 3s on them a few months ago.
That loss in Palo Alto outlined some serious defensive issues for the Wildcats. Since then, those issues have improved, and Arizona is a totally different team in Tucson.
Stanford Cardinal
The style Stanford plays isn't ideal for matching up against Arizona. Both play rampant tempos, and that doesn't favor the Cards. You don't want a track meet against Arizona because that race will often end in the Cats' favor.
The exception is Stanford's 102-point outburst in Palo Alto. It takes that type of performance to out-offense Arizona. Considering Stanford scored only 72 points against Arizona State on Thursday, scoring 102 again seems unlikely.
Jerod Haase runs a pretty interesting offense. His Cardinal team ranks 82nd in Offensive Efficiency, but is 22nd in effective field goal percentage and 11th in 3-point percentage.
If you told me a team ranks top-25 in effective field goal percentage and just outside the top-10 in 3-point percentage, I would assume the team ranks more favorably in efficiency.
The biggest problem? Stanford turns the ball over on 17% of its possessions. That number really limits offensive flow and overall efficiency.
Four of Stanford's five starters shoot better than 40% from 3. That's a big-time number, and that doesn't even include solid shooting from bench guards Jared Bynum and Andrej Stojakovic.
The one name to really keep an eye on is freshman Kanaan Carlyle. The gifted guard — who hails from Atlanta — has made a mark in his first college season, averaging over 14 points per game on 41% shooting from 3. Arizona is all too familiar with Carlyle, who scored 28 points in the first meeting.
The biggest obstacle for Stanford is defending the perimeter. Opponents shoot around 34% from deep against the Cards. That's a very troubling number against an offense like Arizona that can really get rolling.
If Stanford allows Caleb Love and Kylan Boswell to get into an offensive groove, this game could get lopsided quickly.
Arizona Wildcats
Teams playing better at home is no novel concept, but Arizona takes it to another level. The Wildcats lost road games against spotty squads like Oregon State, Stanford and Washington State.
In contrast, Arizona hammered two tournament-caliber teams in Utah and Colorado by nearly 20 at home. It's just a totally different team in McKale.
So, what's different? Arizona's defense is significantly better at home. The Cats have limited every home conference opponent to 75 points or fewer. When you're keeping teams to below 80, with how potent the Wildcats offense is, it typically will lead to wins.
The biggest name to watch, both figuratively and literally, is seven-footer Oumar Ballo. Coming into the year, Tommy Lloyd closely monitored Ballo's playing time with some lingering injuries, but Ballo is back now.
A senior big man, Ballo plays a big part in Arizona's dominance on the glass. The Cats rank top-10 in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage, led by Ballo's knack for grabbing boards.
We know Arizona's upside is Final Four good, but is it officially back in a groove? I think so. The Cats dominated a decent Cal team this week and dismantled Oregon in Eugene last Saturday.
Did Jordan Pope's game-winner against Arizona give the Wildcats the wake-up call they needed? It sure seems that way.
Plus, the metrics never wavered from loving Arizona. It still ranks sixth nationally in KenPom and sits top-11 in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. Don't let the struggles fool you, Arizona is a great team.
Stanford vs. Arizona
Betting Pick & Prediction
As I've mentioned throughout this article, Arizona is a different team at home, and this is a serious revenge game.
The Wildcats are still an excellent ball club — despite some of their surprising losses in the Pac-12 — and I expect them to put Stanford on notice with a 20+ point win.
This is both a good situational spot and an excellent schematic spot for Arizona.
