As I'm sure you've heard countless times over the past week, for the first time since the 2008 Final Four (also in San Antonio), we have four No. 1 seeds left standing in the NCAA Tournament.
In a tournament that's lacked upsets and more importantly, late-game drama, I'm hoping that this stacked quartet delivers all weekend in the Alamo City.
Below you'll find my Final Four betting card and expert analysis for Saturday, April 5.
(My official recommendation is not a parlay, but the option for one is below.)
Florida vs. Auburn
In the first ever all-SEC Final Four matchup, Florida will take on Auburn in a rematch from the regular season.
In that game, the Gators went into "The Jungle" and came away with an impressive 90-81 victory without Alijah Martin. Florida closed as a double-digit underdog in that duel, so this is a pretty drastic power ratings adjustment in just under two months.
I tend to think the Gators (1-3 ATS in this tournament) are a bit overvalued once again, while Auburn's rating may have taken a bit of a hit due to some potential coasting down the stretch.
Don't get me wrong — Todd Golden's bunch has been one of the four best teams in the country this season, but the Gators also arguably should've lost to both UConn (if the Huskies could hit a wide-open 3) and Texas Tech (which led by double-digits with five minutes remaining in regulation).
However, I haven't ran to the window to back the Tigers just yet. The health of Johni Broome is something I obviously want to monitor, and we might not get a perfect picture until after the opening tip. It's definitely a real concern as of this moment.
Therefore, I may just wait to potentially jump in on the underdog live, especially considering how slow Auburn has started over the past few weeks. The Tigers come into this weekend having failed to cover the first-half spread in seven of their eight past contests (and 11 of their past 15).
Whichever staff can make the more keen adjustments will also go a long way towards deciding the winner between two conference foes that are extremely familiar with each other, especially considering Bruce Pearl used to mentor Todd Golden.
I do believe both offenses have legitimate paths to sustained offensive success, as we saw in the first matchup when they combined for 171 points. Florida should be able to get out in transition and dominate the offensive glass, while Auburn's off-ball actions can cause the Gators issues.
The versatility of the big men for each respective team should also pose problems for each respective defense.
I do fancy a prop in this game: Chad Baker-Mazara over 1.5 3-pointers made (+155) at bet365. This looks like a prime spot to buy low on Baker-Mazara, who's cleared this in 16 of 36 games (44.4%) he didn't get thrown out from.
I price this closer to +120 (although our resident prop expert is closer to +145, for reference).
Baker-Mazara should come into this one fully healthy after dealing with a few nagging injuries — and even an illness — this season. Without even adjusting for any ancillary factors, he still shot over 37% from distance, averaging 1.5 makes per contest.
He also made over 40% of his 3-point attempts against tier-A opponents on 87 attempts, per KenPom. However, he's only connected on 5-of-20 attempts (25%) through four games in the tournament.
I think there's a decent chance he gets up at least five attempts (his tournament average) once again, and others may need to pick up some scoring if Broome is indeed not at full strength.
At 6-foot-7, Baker-Mazara is a guy who can get his own shot at any time against a Florida defense that's very difficult to score at the rim on (seventh nationally in NP%, per Haslametrics, and 92nd percentile in Rim Defense Efficiency, per Synergy).
For what it's worth, I also dabbled on three-plus (+475) and four-plus (+1300). If he's on early from the outside, he should see an uptick in minutes against a Florida team that doesn't draw fouls at a nationally elite level, which can be an issue for Baker-Mazara at times.
Let's just hope he doesn't get ejected.
Pick: Auburn's Chad Baker-Mazara Over 1.5 3-Pointers Made (+155)
Houston vs. Duke
From a pure numbers perspective, I believe this spread is a couple of points too high, which is rare for this time of the year.
I acknowledge Duke is an absolute juggernaut, so maybe I'm just not giving the Blue Devils enough respect, even though I have them power rated as historically dominant.
However, I also believe this Houston team continues to not get enough credit in the market.
Across a brutal Big 12 schedule and the most difficult path possible to the Final Four, the Cougars have lost one single game since the start of December, which came in overtime against a Texas Tech team that was a few missed front ends away from also making it to San Antonio.
I do think the best way to beat this Duke team is by limiting the number of possessions in a physical battle. Houston certainly fits that mold to a T.
The Cougars, who rank 360th in adjusted tempo, will almost certainly control tempo in this battle. They also have length and physicality to throw at Cooper Flagg, which can hopefully help them duplicate the game plan Clemson used to beat Duke almost two months ago.
Is it all a rosy picture for Houston? Absolutely not.
While the Cougars aren't looking to score at the rim or in transition (which you can't do either against Duke), their guards could struggle with Duke's length on the perimeter, where Houston is very reliant on jumpers.
Now, Duke has allowed a high range of mid-range attempts this season (334th), but the Blue Devils have been elite defending those shots. Can the Cougars' guards deal with that length and hit their usual share of mid-range shots?
