Sun Belt Championship Betting Odds: UT Arlington-Georgia State
- Spread: Georgia State -4
- Total: 138
- Time: 2 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN2
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It was hardly unexpected that two of the top teams in the Sun Belt would reach the conference tournament final.
Both teams received a rare triple bye into the semifinals to set this up. Each team eliminated its Saturday opponents by at least nine points — UT Arlington as a 4.5-point underdog to Georgia Southern.
Georgia State has defeated UT Arlington twice already this year, but the Mavericks have out rebounded Georgia State by a plus-27 margin over their two losses to the Panthers.
But this game will be an offense vs. defense showdown.
Georgia State will continue to rely on its offensive strengths. The Panthers are first in the Sun Belt in effective field goal percentage, 3-point percentage and steals. Those numbers trump UT Arlington’s struggle at 10th in effective field goal percentage.
GSU takes a ton of 3s and though it rarely uses its bench, tired legs won't be a factor in this game since it received a bye straight to the semifinals.
The Mavericks have a much better chance of covering the game by relying on their defense, which is first in the Sun Belt in opponent's effective field goal percentage.
One area of concern when backing Georgia State is two important categories for me — offensive rebounds and free throw percentage. It is not enough that the Panthers are worst in the Sun Belt in those areas — nationally, Georgia State ranks 310th in offensive rebounds, 337th in opponent offensive rebounds and 328th in free throws.
The best way to lose a cover on a game is to miss free throws while constantly giving your opponent second chances from the glass.
Look for UT Arlington to scrap as much as possible to avoid a third loss to Georgia State this season.
The Pick: UT Arlington +4
