March Madness rolls on with the tip-off of the Sweet 16 on Thursday evening.
We're looking specifically at betting value, and our staff has three picks to add to your betting card.
So, read below for Sweet 16 best bets, including three NCAA Tournament picks and predictions for Thursday, March 27.
(Even though our official recommendation isn't a parlay, there's an option for one below.)
Sweet 16 Best Bets for Thursday
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from Thursday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:09 p.m. | |
| 7:09 p.m. | |
  | 9:39 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
BYU vs. Alabama
So much for March Madness. Cinderella got herself unceremoniously bounced from the ball in record time this year.
The only double-digit seed remaining in the field is No. 10 Arkansas. But the Razorbacks pay John Calipari $8 million a year to coach a team with nine blue-chip recruits, so they hardly qualify as a plucky underdog.
So, does that mean chalk will prevail again on Thursday?
Alabama “played with its food” in the first round. As a two seed, the Crimson Tide led Robert Morris by four at halftime and trailed by one with seven minutes remaining in the game. But then Nate Oats’ team locked in and finished the game on a 26-16 run.
In the Round of 32, things came a bit easier for Alabama. The Tide established a two-possession lead midway through the first half over Saint Mary’s and ended up cruising to a 14-point victory.
Zooming out, it’s clear that Alabama is a trustworthy favorite when punching down or facing teams outside of the top 10. The last time the Tide had a setback against a “non-elite” team was more than a month ago when Mizzou got hot on its home floor, shooting a scorching 60.3% from the field.
So, that begs the question: Is BYU elite?
If you simply consult season-long statistics, the Cougars are a fringe top-25 team that’s overly 3-point dependent. At a quick glance, you could say that Kevin Young’s team is a poor man’s version of Alabama.
But that wouldn’t be telling the whole story.
Across the Cougars' first 23 games, they were a high-variance team that shot really well at home and struggled on the road. They opened 6-6 in Big 12 play and were a sure-fire fade when they left Provo, posting a matching 2-5 mark straight up and against the spread as a road team.
They weren’t reliable scoring on the road because they couldn’t knock down as many jumpers and rarely got to the line (291st in free throw rate).
But then Young made a few adjustments to his offense, and Richie Saunders began attacking the rim. BYU also began running a bit more zone.
These small tweaks had a profound impact on their team. The Cougars have gone 11-1 SU in their past 12 games while improving their foul shot rate by over 120 slots.
Defensively, the zone has worked, coaxing more triples out of opponents while limiting high-percentage looks inside the arc and around the basket. BYU’s effective field goal defense ranks 17th in the past six weeks, and it’s now giving up just 13.6 points per game around the basket (15th).
Offensively, this team is a rocket ship, trailing only Duke by a tiny margin in terms of efficiency since Feb. 10.
And when it’s been sped up, BYU has played even better this season. Alabama plays at the fastest tempo in all of college basketball, but BYU finished 3-1 when facing the three fastest teams in the Big 12 this season (Arizona, Oklahoma State, UCF).
And finally, the only teams that have given the Cougars issues during their late-season run have been Houston and Iowa State. Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars crushed BYU, and Iowa State forced 29 turnovers in a double-overtime thriller.
Both U-of-H and ISU’s on-ball pressure took BYU out of its offense while spurring their own transition games.
Alabama couldn’t be further away from Houston and Iowa State in terms of disruptive defense. The Tide ranks 353rd in turnover percentage defense, which means you can count on another monster offensive performance from BYU.
Pick: BYU ML +190
BYU vs. Alabama
By John Feltman
To kick off the Sweet 16, I expect a high-flying offensive affair between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the BYU Cougars.
The total sits at 175.5, and the market has already seen some sharp money come in.
Alabama hasn’t been shooting the 3 as well as it’s wanted to in the last couple of weeks, but I think it’s due to catch fire from deep.
BYU’s offense also thrives on taking the triple, and it’s shooting 37% from deep.
The Tide don’t force turnovers on defense, which is unfortunate for them since the Cougars tend to turn the ball over too much.
So, if Alabama can force a few more turnovers than usual, that will lead to many easy buckets going the other way on the floor.
Alabama’s offense plays at the highest tempo in the entire country, and I expect a much cleaner offensive effort since it struggled to score at times against Saint Mary’s last weekend.
The Cougars' offense is red-hot right now, and because of the high pace of the matchup, I expect them to get a ton of offensive possessions that will end in points.
I would be shocked if we saw a low-scoring contest on Thursday evening, especially since BYU can’t defend the 3 well.
BYU’s offense has started getting hot, and I think Alabama‘s offense is due for an explosion.
I wouldn’t think twice about this one. I love the over to kick off the Sweet 16 on Thursday night.
Pick: Over 175.5 (Play to 176.5)
Arizona vs. Duke
We're four months from Duke's 69-55 win at Tucson on November 22, and much has changed, especially for Arizona.
The Wildcats endured a surprisingly slow start to the campaign and had a losing mark (3-4) in November before finding some firmer footing and eventually putting together an impressive run in its first spin around the Big 12 track.
