Chalk dominated the NCAA Tournament over the first weekend with double-digit favorites going 15-3 ATS and all but two of the top 12 seeds (Kentucky and Baylor) advancing to the Sweet 16.
Every No. 1 and No. 2 seed also made it to the second weekend for the first time since 2019. However, just like back in 2019 when only one No. 1 seed advanced to the Final Four, chalk could certainly stumble this weekend with so many good matchups on the docket.
In 2022, a pair of No. 1 seeds went down on the same day in the Sweet 16 for the first time in 27 seasons. And in 2023, no top seeds made it to the Elite Eight for the first time since seeding began in 1978.
So, could we be in for some overdue chaos, or will chalk continue to roll on? Your guess is as good as mine, but I'll make a case below for the best path to victory for each of the eight lower seeds playing on Thursday and Friday.
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The ACC has done it again.
Along with NC State, Clemson is the only other seed below a 5 to make the Sweet 16 after securing a pair of convincing wins over New Mexico and Baylor.
It's been many months, but don't forget the Tigers also enjoyed plenty of success in the nonconference part of their schedule with a perfect 5-0 record against the following tournament teams:
- Alabama (road)
- UAB (neutral)
- Boise State (home)
- TCU (neutral)
- South Carolina (home)
Three of those five victories came away from home for a Tigers club that's now 5-1 in neutral-site games. They also won at North Carolina and should've won at Duke, so this veteran team — 26th in Experience, per KenPom — has certainly passed plenty of tests away from Littlejohn Coliseum.
Meanwhile, Arizona has stumbled a few times away from Tucson, which partly explains its 348th ranking in Haslametrics' Away From Home metric. The Wildcat suffered seven of their eight defeats outside of the friendly confines of the McKale Center, including a trio of losses to non-tournament teams in Oregon State, USC and Stanford.
So, what is Clemson's path to victory here?
For starters, the Tigers do a tremendous job in limiting transition opportunities (16th percentile) and defending (77th percentile) when teams do get a chance to run. That's critical against Arizona's deadly transition offense.
Clemson's defense also excels on the defensive glass and in limiting opponents at the rim. On the season, the Tigers rank in the top 10 in both second-chance conversion percentage allowed and near-proximity percentage (NP%), which is a necessity against an Arizona offense that also sits in the top 10 in both categories.
Consequently, Clemson is set up to limit two of Arizona's primary means of offense.
Now, it doesn't force turnovers — which can plague the Wildcats at times — and will be at a severe disadvantage on the perimeter from an athletic standpoint, but that also held true in its first two matchups.
As a result, I expect Clemson to continue to pack it in on defense and mix in plenty of zone looks in order to protect its lack of lateral quickness at the guard position and to try to limit post touches for Oumar Ballo, who will have a distinct matchup edge in this game.
While the Wildcats did have success in the first two rounds when Dayton and Long Beach State went zone, they rank in just the 42nd percentile in zone offense (compared to 90th vs. man) and went 2-5 in league play when they saw zone in at least 20 possessions.
If Caleb Love explodes from beyond the arc, there's nothing Clemson can really do, but Love could just as easily shoot Arizona out of this game with poor shot selection.
And while Clemson has benefited from some shooting luck on the defensive end in this tournament, so has Arizona in that regard.
On the other end of the floor, Clemson works inside-out through its post, ranking in the 99th percentile in post-up frequency and 94th in efficiency. That could cause trouble for a Tommy Lloyd defense that surprisingly ranks in just the 31st percentile in post-up defense. Plus, Lloyd is 1-5 ATS in the tournament.
While Clemson owns one of the nation's highest post rates, it isn't a rim-seeking offense, ranking 15th percentile in frequency although it has some elite finishers at the rim.
Well, the Arizona defense ranks 334th in midrange attempt rate allowed and gives up plenty of looks from the perimeter. The Tigers have the shooters who can capitalize.
If the 3-point variance works in Clemson's favor, it will have a very good chance of pulling off the upset (especially if it can slow this game down) like Washington State, which swept Arizona during the regular season.
Lastly, assuming he can stay out of foul trouble, PJ Hall could pose some problems for Ballo by pulling him away from the rim, which will be a huge factor, specifically in the first half.
We've seen Hall get in foul trouble in both games this tournament and throughout the regular season. That could doom the Tigers even with solid depth down low, especially since getting Jack Clark back from injury.
In fact, foul trouble should play a massive role in many of these first-round matchups, including the next game up.
This will mark only the third national title rematch in the NCAA Tournament and the first before the Final Four with the other two matchups occurring in 1992 (UNLV vs. Duke) and 2007 (Florida vs. UCLA).
Can the Aztecs get their revenge? It won't be easy, but there is a path.
Despite going 0-3 against UConn, St. John's did hang around in all three meetings with the Huskies. I bring that up because the Aztecs, who I have power-rated extremely close to the Red Storm, profile very similarly.
In order to have a prayer against UConn, a team must have success in a number of areas:
- Operate efficiently in the midrange (UConn allows midrange attempts at a top-20 clip nationally)
- Get second-chance points (UConn ranks 138th in second-chance PPP, per Haslametrics)
- Force turnovers with ball pressure (UConn ranks in the 38th percentile against the press, per Synergy)
- Defend at a high level at the rim (UConn ranks third in the country in NP%)
The Aztecs certainly have a number of midrange merchants who could get enough buckets to keep them in this game.
They also have elite positional size and athleticism, which at least gives them a chance to somewhat slow down UConn's elite motion on the offensive end.
San Diego State will certainly be up against it vs. the defending champs, who will also benefit from an easier travel week while playing in front of a partisan crowd at TD Garden.
However, if San Diego State's press can lead to some easy buckets and it's hitting from the midrange at a high clip, the Aztecs have a chance — especially if Jaedon LeDee can get Donovan Clingan in foul trouble because it certainly won't be easy for their workhorse in the post against Clingan. He's going to have to hit some shots and maybe even a couple 3s like he did against Yale.
Lastly, this does profile as more of a half-court, slower-paced game, which tends to favor the underdog. In this case, the 'dog also has a very good head coach in Brian Dutcher, who has enjoyed plenty of success with extra preparation.
Then again, UConn is the best team in the country, and Danny Hurley seems to have the Huskies motivated to the fullest degree every time they touch the floor, so none of this could matter — especially if UConn is hitting its 3s.
I have to give Hubert Davis a ton of credit. I've doubted the man in the past, but his tournament track record speaks for itself with a perfect 8-0 ATS record.
UNC has plenty of advantages in a matchup between two teams that love to do work on the offensive glass and get to the free-throw line.
The problem for the Crimson Tide is the Heels are significantly superior in both areas on the defensive end.
Those extra points could make all the difference in a game that shouldn't see many wasted possessions with turnovers.
The Tar Heels also possess an elite transition defense, ranking in the eighth percentile in frequency and No. 2 (behind only Houston) in points per possession allowed, per Synergy.
That's important against an Alabama offense that loves to run when given the opportunity and ranks 84th percentile in transition frequency.
However, the Tide actually grade out more efficiently in their half-court offense.
Now, the problem for Alabama's rim-and-3 attack is it will likely have trouble scoring at the rim against UNC, which ranks fourth nationally in NP% — a key statistic against an offense that ranks in the top 30 in both NP attempt rate and field-goal percentage.
UNC ranks 346th in midrange percentage attempt rate allowed, but Alabama rarely takes midrange shots (361st) — although it certainly has a few capable scorers who could thrive in that area of the floor.
With all of that said, there's one clear path for Alabama to win this game. It must go bananas from 3, which it's certainly capable of doing, especially if Latrell Wrightsell suits up. I'm hearing he's trending toward playing.
His presence on both ends is paramount, as he has shot over 44% on just under 150 3-point attempts and is also Alabama's best perimeter defender. It's hard to see Alabama getting consistent stops, especially inside against Armando Bacot and in the midrange against RJ Davis, who should feast against a porous Tide defense at the rim and in the midrange.
However, if Alabama can trade 3s for 2s for long stretches, which would require UNC's role players having an off-shooting night from deep, the Tide can win this game.
The Heels do an excellent job of limiting catch-and-shoot jumpers, which is where Alabama thrives, but UNC has certainly benefited from some extreme luck this season on unguarded opponent jumpers, which it allows at a troubling rate.
That perimeter defense will certainly be tested against an Alabama offense that shoots the 3 at a top-20 rate nationally and makes nearly 37%, which can be the ultimate equalizer for an underdog if those shots are falling.
To further illustrate this point, in Alabama's 11 losses, it shot 27.9% from beyond the arc compared to a sparkling 40.8% in its 23 wins. Alabama averages close to 30 3-point attempts per game, but that number likely increases in what profiles as a fast-paced game between two teams that rank inside the top 50 in Adjusted Tempo, especially since UNC excels at defending at the rim and in transition.
Let's say Alabama attempts 35 3s in this game. Does it make 15 (42.9%) or 10 (28.6%)? That could very well determine the outcome, especially if Grant Nelson can hit a few in what could be limited minutes once again.
This is probably the most fascinating matchup of the Sweet 16 in a battle of elite offense vs. elite defense.
In fact, Iowa State now ranks first overall in overall Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, while Illinois ranks first offensively, per KenPom.
Iowa State's aggressive defense forces teams to beat it with elite ball movement and shot-making, which Illinois certainly has in spades.
The Illini can go five-out and work through Marcus Domask, who has elite vision, to create open looks or isolation opportunities for the unstoppable Terrance Shannon Jr.
Can the Illini, without a true point guard, handle the relentless Cyclone pressure? They rarely turn it over, but this will be a different type of pressure than what they're used to seeing in Big Ten play.
That might be the key to this game, as live-ball turnovers would kill Brad Underwood's club. Illinois struggles to defend in transition, which is where Iowa State thrives, ranking tops in the nation in points per possession off steals and in the 91st percentile in transition efficiency.
Illinois does have a rim-attacking offense that ranks top-25 in NP Attempt Rate and NP%, which isn't ideal against an Iowa State defense that ranks No. 1 nationally in NP Attempt Rate Allowed, per Haslametrics.
The Illini must make their perimeter shots.
They also thrive in late-shot clock situations, ranking in the 90th percentile in the last four seconds of the shot clock. That's enormous against an Iowa State defense that ranks 11th in frequency of opponent shots taken in that time frame.
And while Iowa State grades out as elite in transition defense as well, I think Shannon has to take advantage before the defense gets set whenever he gets the opportunity. No defense in the country can really slow him down in the open court.
On the other side of the ball, Illinois' drop defense allows a ton of midrange attempts, which is where Iowa State prefers to operate but doesn't do so at a nationally elite level in terms of efficiency.
The good news for Illinois is it can limit Iowa State from living on the offensive glass and at the free-throw line, where the Cyclones cash in plenty of checks.
If Illinois can take care of the rock, it has the shot-makers and creators in isolation to score enough to win this game. Plus, the Illini can really exploit the Cyclones' aggression by living on the offensive glass and at the charity stripe against an Iowa State defense that ranks 196th in defensive rebounding rate and 229th in foul rate.
Lastly, don't forget about the emergence of former Baylor transfer Dain Dainja, who has raised the ceiling of this Illinois squad. Over the past 10 games, Dainja has averaged right around 15 minutes per game, and Illinois has gone 9-1 over that span. In the 14 games prior, he averaged only six minutes over a stretch where Illinois went just 9-5.
Dainja gives Underwood increased lineup versatility by having the ability to go with a more physical lineup that can better rebound and protect the rim. Not surprisingly, per EvanMiya, Dainja grades out as Illinois' best defender.
This is really a coin-flip game, but having the best offensive player on the court in Shannon might make all of the difference, especially if the Cyclones cool down from the perimeter after shooting 46.8% from 3 over their past four games in front of partisan crowds.
They certainly won't have that same level of luxury in Boston against an Illini defense that takes away the 3 as well as any team in the country.
Somehow, someway, the Wolfpack are still standing after an improbable seven-game winning streak that has included a pair of overtime victories, including one that took an absolutely miraculous buzzer-beater against Virginia to keep their tourney hopes alive.
Fortunately for NC State, it doesn't turn the ball over (10th nationally), which is critical against Marquette's heavy-pressure defense that forces turnovers at a top-20 clip nationally.
The good news doesn't stop there, as the Wolfpack's heavy post-centric offense (11th in post frequency) that revolves around DJ Burns — who's a load and a half on the block — will face a Marquette post defense that can be exploited.
However, I'm assuming Marquette will double and trap Burns at a high frequency, which will make his pristine vision and passing ability even more critical.
Can the Pack shooters surrounding Burns hit their 3s against a Marquette defense that will certainly allow plenty of looks from the perimeter (338th in 3-point attempt rate)? That's basically the key for NC State to stay in this game since it's hard to envision it getting many stops on the other end.
Star Marquette guard Tyler Kolek, who looked fully healthy over the first weekend, spearheads one of the nation's most dominant pick-and-roll offensive attacks. That spells doom for an NC State defense that grades out poorly against pick-and-roll.
The Golden Eagles should specifically take advantage of Burns on that end all night long, and there's nothing NC State head coach Kevin Keatts can really do about it since he needs Burns on the other end of the floor.
It's also worth noting NC State isn't really a dominant rebounding team, which is where Marquette is vulnerable on both ends.
Plus, the Golden Eagles, who can't really be pressed (which NC State will do periodically), should absolutely roast the Wolfpack in transition, where they grade out in just the 31st percentile, per Synergy.
Ultimately, NC State must hope for some extreme 3-point variance in this one since Marquette should just get too many easy buckets. That's a dangerous game to play with potential regression looming. Over the past six games, NC State has held opponents to just 28.8% shooting from beyond the arc after allowing a sky-high percentage of 35.8% (300th nationally) over its first 32 contests.
Purdue avoided another major upset to a lower seed, but can the Boilermakers now overcome their struggles in the Sweet 16?
Under head coach Matt Painter, Purdue is just 1-5 SU and ATS in this round, while Gonzaga has advanced to the Elite Eight in three of the past four tournaments with Mark Few holding an overall 5-5 record (5-4-1 ATS) in the Sweet 16.
This highly-anticipated matchup is actually a rematch of a game played in the Maui Invitational earlier this season.
In that game, Gonzaga led by five at the half before falling by 10 in part due to a woeful shooting performance. The Bulldogs shot just 6-of-32 (18.8%) from deep, including 0-of-14 in the second half. Although, it's not like Purdue shot the lights out at just 4-of-17 (23.5%).
In a matchup of two of the four most post-heavy offenses in the country, Gonzaga will obviously need to shoot better from the perimeter, where it has been red hot. Since Feb. 1, it has made 41.3% of its 3-point attempts, which ranks fifth nationally.
Interestingly, Purdue is actually one of the four teams that has made a higher clip over that span at 42.0%. Three-point variance will certainly play a role in this one, as it does for most one-and-done scenarios in college basketball.
There's a path to consistent offense for the Zags.
While they likely won't be able to work through the post or in transition as frequently as they usually do, they can exploit Purdue's vulnerable pick-and-roll defense, which actually grades out slightly below the national average, per Synergy.
Making Zach Edey move and getting him in conflict — similar to what the Zags did against Hunter Dickinson and Kansas — could lead to plenty of easy buckets.
Generally speaking, the Purdue defense forces opponents to work in the midrange, ranking 358th nationally in midrange attempt rate allowed. Well, Gonzaga is more than comfortable operating in that area of the floor, ranking 41st in midrange attempt rate and seventh in percentage made.
For what it's worth, the same holds true for Purdue on the offensive end.
This game could simply come down to which team is making more of its jumpers both from 3 and in the midrange.
If the Zags cool off from the perimeter, it could spell trouble, as they likely won't get many second-chance opportunities against a Purdue club that excels on the defensive glass (14th nationally).
The other major caveat here is Gonzaga must stay out of foul trouble. That's probably the key to the game, in my opinion, so the whistle will matter immensely.
Gonzaga does a superb job of defending without fouling (20th nationally) since it doesn't really pressure the ball, which actually may hurt in some sense against a Purdue backcourt that can struggle with ball control at times.
However, Edey is in a class of his own when it comes to drawing fouls. Not surprisingly, the Boilermakers rank ninth nationally in free-throw rate on the offensive end of the floor while rarely fouling on the other end (10th).
Simply put, Gonzaga is much more likely to get in foul trouble in this game, which could spell disaster given its complete lack of depth. On the season, Mark Few's bunch ranks 342nd in Bench Minutes, per KenPom. If it can avoid being plagued by fouls, it has a good enough rim defense to compete against Edey.
On a side note, I'd look at a live over if Graham Ike gets into foul trouble for the Zags. Gonzaga can go with more mobility at the five, which could work offensively but might lead to a dunk fest for Edey.
It's also worth noting that Gonzaga is a much different team than it was back in mid-November when these teams met (so is Purdue, just to a lesser extent). The emergence of Ben Gregg has really changed the trajectory of Gonzaga's season.
Remember, this is a team many doubted would even make the tournament after a home loss to Saint Mary's in early February.
With extra time to prepare, you can bet your bottom dollar Few will have a very good offensive game plan for attacking this Purdue defense, but the Zags must continue to make their jumpers since they likely won't get too many stops or second-chance looks against Edey and company.
The biggest question for me in this game is whether or not Duke can handle Houston's physicality.
All season, it's what I thought would ultimately doom the Blue Devils, whose lack of physicality really showed in a pair of losses at the hands of North Carolina in the regular season.
It was also ultimately their undoing last year in the tournament against Tennessee. Remember, before that game, Duke beat everybody's favorite Cinderella, Oral Roberts, in dominant fashion like it just did to another darling in James Madison.
Well, it doesn't get any more physical than Houston.
Now, the good news for Duke is this game should be played in the half-court with neither team looking to push the ball in transition. That usually favors the underdog, but I think that's especially true here since Duke has had major issues slowing down elite transition offenses this season.
This is another game where the officials should play a large role. If Houston is allowed to play its physical brand of defense, the Duke offense could be in major trouble. However, if the game is called tight, the questionable Houston depth — the result of a number of injuries — could ultimately doom the Cougars, as it almost did in overtime against Texas A&M.
If J'Wan Roberts also aggravates one of his numerous injuries, that would also help Duke.
Duke does have a very stout perimeter defense that excels against pick-and-roll. As a result, Houston should be forced into plenty of late shot-clock offense, but that's where it thrives with a bunch of tough shot-makers.
However, Houston will undoubtedly go through offensive droughts with its questionable shot selection. The question then becomes whether or not Duke can keep it off the offensive glass, where the Cougars are absolutely elite (11th nationally).
Second-chance points off misses is usually Houston's best offense, especially if LJ Cryer and Emanuel Sharp aren't hitting from the perimeter.
Duke ranks 53rd in that department, but it might just come down to matching Houston's physicality on those 50-50 balls.
On the other end of the floor, Duke doesn't turn it over (23rd) and is decent on the offensive glass and getting to the free-throw line — although it isn't nationally elite in either department.
All three qualities are necessary against the aggressive Houston defense.
The Blue Devils also have plenty of capable perimeter shooters who can make contested shots. That's another critical box that you need to check against a Kelvin Sampson group that requires you to beat them with elite ball movement and perimeter jumpers (which they will contest with their limitless length).
If Duke can handle Houston's physicality, that's big. The Blue Devils offense grades out in the 96th percentile in spot-up shooting and will now take on a Houston defense that allows a high rate (78th percentile) but grades out even better (98th percentile).
I tend to trust the more experienced Cougars, led by the unflappable Jamal Shead running the show. They should also make life a living hell for the Duke guards and Kyle Filipowski in the pick-and-roll.
However, Duke can stay in this by hitting its 3s and/or getting a friendly whistle. If it can duplicate its 14-of-28 3-point shooting clinic against JMU, the Blue Devils are almost undoubtedly advancing.
But teams rarely go off from deep against Houston.
There's a reason Sampson's clubs have not allowed opponents to shoot over 30% from beyond the arc for an astounding six straight seasons.
Creighton is certainly lucky to be here after surviving a double-overtime scare against Oregon in a game where it trailed by four in the final minute of regulation.
Meanwhile, Tennessee survived a small test against Texas, but Vols fans have to be happy with escaping despite shooting 3-of-25 from 3 with an off-game from Dalton Knecht.
Similar to my concerns about Duke dealing with Houston's physicality, I do worry about how Creighton will deal with Tennessee's physical nature. The Jays are a finesse team.
With Ryan Kalkbrenner anchoring Creighton's drop defense, the Bluejays are elite at taking away the 3 and defending at the rim. They force teams to operate in the midrange with the highest percentage of midrange attempts allowed in the entire country.
That could spell trouble against Knecht, who rarely has two poor shooting games in a row.
In my eyes, Knecht is the key to the game. If he goes off, Tennessee advances. If not, Creighton will have a good shot since it can compete on the defensive glass and never fouls. I'm just not sure the Jays have anybody who can slow Knecht down.
On the other end of the floor, how will Creighton handle Tennessee's ball pressure? Steven Ashworth could really be in trouble in this particular matchup.
The Vols also have plenty of length to throw at Kalkbrener down low and should clean up all of Creighton's misses, especially since the Jays don't really crash the offensive glass.
Tennessee's defense also forces a ton of isolation, where Creighton isn't really comfortable operating.
Not to sound like a broken record, but the whistle will play a large role with the bigs in this game as well.
Tennessee's defense has taken a major step back this season compared to last when it comes to transition, which is a path for Creighton to get some easy buckets and open 3s off of misses because it won't snag any turnovers.
However, Creighton isn't necessarily looking to run a ton, and Tennesseee does at least an adequate job of limiting those transition opportunities.
As always, the wild card for Creighton is its 3-point shooting. The Bluejays shoot 3s at the seventh-highest clip in the country and make them at a top-35 rate.
However, potential regression looms from behind the arc following some luck in the first two rounds when it shot 25-of-56 (44.6%) from deep while holding its opponents to 13-of-49 (26.5%).
Plus, the Jays will have to continue their torrid shooting against an elite Tennessee perimeter defense that contests jumpers as well as any team in the country. On the season, the Vols allow the fourth-lowest rate of unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers, per Synergy.
In a matchup between two defenses that really limit opponents from 3 and at the rim, it could come down to which offense operates more efficiently in the midrange in what should be more of a half-court game.
If so, Tennessee's defense grades out exponentially better and has the ultimate cook in Knecht on the offensive end. Although, don't sleep on Trey Alexander's midrange ability.
The Vols should also win the shot volume battle with more offensive rebounds and forced turnovers.
However, if Knecht is a bit off and Creighton is hitting its 3s, the Jays will likely advance to the Elite Eight.
