And just like that, we have our Sweet 16.
It was a wild opening weekend of NCAA tournament action — isn't it always? — but this time the favorites got most of the wins, even in close ones.
All four No. 1 seeds are still playing, and so are all four No. 2 seeds. Add in a pair of No. 3 seeds and four No. 4 or 5 seeds from their pods, and there aren't many Cinderella stories left.
But while the clock struck midnight early for Cinderella, it left a loaded, top-heavy Sweet 16 with nearly every remaining matchup on the board a marquee, outstanding game to look forward to.
So how does the 2024 Sweet 16 stack up? Let's rank the remaining 16 teams from best to worst, starting at the bottom.
TIER VI – CINDERELLA, THY NAME IS SPELLED A-C-C
16. Clemson (West No. 6 seed)
The Tigers just played their best week of basketball this season, using hot shooting to get by Baylor and crushing a good New Mexico squad. But it's hard to feel like Clemson belongs on this loaded stage.
Clemson did win at North Carolina and could get a rematch in the Elite Eight. The Tigers also have five losses this season by a bucket. Maybe P.J. Hall and crew can play spoiler, but it's hard to see much more than that.
15. North Carolina State (South No. 11 seed)
The Wolfpack are on a heck of a run, winning seven games in 12 days (!!) to get to the Sweet 16 season when the season looked all but over early in the ACC tournament.
NC State has made the modern tournament seven times as a double-digit seed and now sports an 8-6 record in those berths with at least one win in five of the seven trips.
There's little about NC State's profile that screams Sweet 16. The Wolfpack had a bunch of competitive losses and have now found a way to close the wins out instead. Still, NC State has Cinderella history on its side and is the last seed remaining above No. 6. Has Kevin Keatts found something special?
TIER V – CAN'T WIN FOUR MORE AGAINST THIS FIELD
14. San Diego State (East No. 5 seed)
Credit where it's due — it's been a miserable tournament showing for the Mountain West yet again, but yet again the Aztecs are the last team standing.
San Diego State entered last year's tournament 6-12 all-time but has now won seven of eight after destroying Yale to wrap up the weekend. The Aztecs were in this exact position a year ago, a No. 5 seed facing the No. 1 overall seed in the Sweet 16. But UConn is no Alabama, and outside of that win, the Aztecs have wins in this stretch against No. 6 seed Creighton, No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic — both by one point — plus four wins against 12- and 13-seeds.
And don't forget the one loss, which came against these Huskies in a blowout title game loss you've hopefully forgotten about. The Aztecs grind things out defensively and hope they find enough offense but typically don't against top opponents, and that's all they'll face the rest of the way.
13. Alabama (West No. 4 seed)
The Crimson Tide can score on any team in the nation — so imagine how many points the offense must put up on the defense in practice.
Alabama's defense is as awful as the offense is great, allowing a barrage of easy shots and unable to rebound and close out possessions, all while fouling a lot. Grand Canyon probably wins that game if it has any shotmakers at all. Bama plays fast and can get hot enough to spring an upset, but this team lost to Purdue, Creighton, and Arizona and went 1-4 against the SEC top three.
There's no way this defense holds up for four games against top competition, no matter how much the offense scores.
12. Gonzaga (Midwest No. 5 seed)
Nine straight Sweet 16s is a heck of an accomplishment for Mark Few, but he's just 9-12 after the second round and we still haven't seen Gonzaga do it consistently against this level of play.
This team exploded offensively over the final two months of the season and ran McNeese and Kansas off the court, but that was a wounded Jayhawks team and McNeese was just outmanned. Gonzaga's offensive explosion came mostly in conference play, where it lost twice to St. Mary's and demolished a bunch of other non-tournament teams.
The Zags have looked great, but they lost to Purdue, UConn, and San Diego State by double digits. Now they have to play Purdue again, then three more opponents better than them. It's too big an ask, even as well as Gonzaga has played against inferior competition.
11. Illinois (East No. 3 seed)
Somehow this is Illinois' first Sweet 16 since playing in the 2005 national championship game, and Illini fans will not be happy to see a ranking outside the top 10, but this Sweet 16 is loaded.
Illinois certainly looks the part. Outside of a 9-0 start by Morehead State, the Illini absolutely demolished their opponents this weekend, and the team has yet to lose by double digits at any point this season. The offense is good enough to contend with the top teams on this list and has been even better of late, but the Illini will lose 3s most games and the defense just isn't good enough to win four more.
TIER IV – THE FLAWED CONTENDERS
10. Tennessee (Midwest No. 2 seed)
Tennessee has a championship-caliber defense, wreaking havoc and forcing turnovers with a style that can lead to runs in a hurry. But as great as the defense is, it's about to come up against some extremely efficient offenses in Creighton and either Purdue or Gonzaga, and that's just to get to the Final Four.
And when the defense can't create easy buckets, we've seen this Vols offense stall. It's over-reliant on 3s and offensive rebounds, and better opponents can take those away. It's encouraging to see Tennessee win a game despite terrible shooting — this team usually loses that Texas game — but every opponent left will be better. They'll all be better defensively, too. Tennessee's offense has faced the 59th best Strength of Schedule per KenPom, and Texas ranked outside the top 30. Every remaining opponent could be a top-25 defense.
Rick Barnes is 10-22 ATS in tournament play, including 6-19 ATS when not at least a 10-seed favorite. Barnes has covered exactly one of his last 16 NCAA tournament games. That means close games, and it means the Volunteers executing late offensively. Good luck with that.
9. Duke (South No. 4 seed)
This is only Duke's fifth tournament appearance since 1987 as a No. 4 seed or worse, and the Blue Devils have never advanced past the Sweet 16.
Is it possible this team is a bit underrated, though? Can Duke even be underrated?
The Blue Devils crushed Vermont and James Madison, a team that had just pantsed Wisconsin, and Duke has played up against top competition with terrific offense and good enough defense. Duke ranked top three in both preseason polls. The Blue Devils aren't really great at anything in particular, but they're good at mostly everything. That means a steady floor, but is there a championship ceiling?
8. North Carolina (West No. 1 seed)
Carolina is historically a safe No. 1 seed, but this team really shouldn't have been the final No. 1 seed. The Tar Heels won what sure looked like a mediocre ACC before the NCAA tournament started, and the profile is nothing to write home about other than a sweep of Duke.
UNC is good, but it's hard to argue they're great. Armando Bacot and R.J. Davis are battle-tested and have been here before, and the Tar Heels defense is very stout. Like Duke, this team is good at a lot of things, but Carolina already trailed by double digits against Michigan State and it's tough to paint this team as a clear favorite against most remaining opponents.
The No. 1 seed means a winnable path, but can Carolina put together four wins against top opponents?
7. Creighton (Midwest No. 3 seed)
The Bluejays could very well have gone home against Oregon this weekend, and maybe you think that should automatically push Creighton down the list, but the name of the game is survive and advance and that was not the first time the Bluejays have come through in the final seconds this season.
That's the thing with this roster. Trey Alexander, Baylor Scheierman, and Ryan Kalkbrenner came a point away from the Final Four a year ago, and that's a trio of future pros, all of them capable of taking over any game or coming up with the winning play in the clutch.
Crieghton runs an efficient offense and shoots a ton of 3s while getting to the line in droves, and Kalkbrenner ensures a good defense and rebounding effort. The Bluejays play that trio as many minutes as they can handle, and they can hang with anyone.
6. Iowa State (East No. 2 seed)
Many pundits thought the Cyclones should've been the final No. 1 seed, and the regular season resume holds up and was punctuated with a dominant second win against Houston.
But these rankings are forward-looking, not backward, and while Iowa State's frenetic defense-forward style was the perfect matchup against Houston, it might not be against better, more efficient offenses. The Cyclones force a ton of turnovers without fouling, and that's a great regular-season formula that beats a lot of mediocre and bad teams.
But what happens when the turnovers dry up against an opponent like Illinois or UConn? Do the Cyclones have the offense to score with top teams? They've closed out a lot of close games, but at some point, you end up on the wrong side of that one in a knockout tournament.
T.J. Otzelberger's offense might just not be good enough to beat four more great teams.
TIER III – NON-NO. 1 SEEDS THAT CAN WIN IT ALL
5. Marquette (South No. 2 seed)
Marquette is an absolute delight to watch. Is it just me, or are the Golden Eagles a little reminiscent of the Denver Nuggets?
Tyler Kolek is the best passer in college and looks fully healthy after a long stretch of injury entering the tournament, and that changes everything for this team. He had 11 assists in each of his first two tournament games, plus an efficient 39 points between the two. In addition to Kolek, Oso Ighodaro may also be the best passing big man in college, a nifty ball handler who can start or finish the play.
That Kolek-Ighodaro combo gives this team two lethal passers and allows the Eagles to play like an NBA team, running pick and roll high low, passing out of the post, and creating easy look after easy look to juice the offense. It's not exactly Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic, but it's a heck of a combo either way.
Marquette was a preseason top-five team but saw its metrics slip late in the season when Kolek was injured and the team incurred a few marquee losses. But Kolek might be the second most important player in the nation behind Zach Edey, and his absence may have nuked the numbers and Marquette's reputation.
This team plays fast and can find points in a hurry, and Shaka Smart has been to the Final Four before. Marquette lucks into a softer-than-expected opponent in NC State, and that could put the Eagles three wins away from glory with enough offense to out-efficient any opponent.
Marquette is the best relative long-shot title bet on the board at +2200 (bet365).
4. Arizona (West No. 2 seed)
I thought Arizona was the de facto fourth No. 1 seed when the bracket was unveiled, and the Wildcats have played like it. Arizona made easy work of both Long Beach State and Dayton, a team built to give it trouble with an NBA-caliber big man and a heap of 3-point shooting.
Arizona is just really good — and at everything. The Cats are deep and versatile, and they're the only team left in the tournament that ranks top-10 in both Adjusted Offense and Defense at KenPom. You always want great guard play in March and Arizona gets that from Caleb Love, Kylan Boswell and Pelle Larsson, while Keshad Johnson provides versatility and Oumar Ballo has been terrific in the middle so far.
Arizona is an elite rebounding team, and they even have a trump card they've yet to use as a great 3-point shooting team that has yet to crank up the attempts yet. That could come in handy from a trailing position at some point, and so could Caleb Love's Final Four experience. Those tough Pac-12 losses being held against this team also don't look so bad now that the conference has performed well.
This is the best all-around team in the softest region, and Arizona has a real chance to win the whole thing. They'd be my second favorite behind UConn, and they're worth investing in at +1000 (BetRivers).
TIER II – THE WORTHY NO. 1 SEEDS
3. Houston (South No. 1 seed)
The Cougars are back in the Sweet 16, but not without more than a little drama closing things out against Texas A&M with literal walk-ons down the stretch after everyone else fouled out.
Still, this is becoming a bit of a troubling pattern for Kelvin Sampson in the tournament with tight, goofy finishes and last year's Sweet 16 upset by No. 5 seed Miami. The path this year is much harder, but Houston is far more tested after facing the Big 12 gauntlet for the first time and Kelvin Sampson has made Final Fours with multiple teams and faced this stage before.
Houston has the best defense in the nation, but the metrics on this team leave them vulnerable to certain types of teams. Opponents that crash the offensive glass — like Texas A&M just did — can hang, especially if they can keep Houston from racking up extra possessions via turnovers and offensive rebounds.
Houston is one of the slowest teams in the nation, and that often leads to close games. The team had a ton of close wins, which makes for great narratives but also leaves a lot of toss-ups like we saw Sunday night. And in March, it only takes one.
There's no question Jamal Shead and L.J. Cryer's crew earned this ranking, but Houston is nicked up and has a profile that doesn't always play up against other great teams. The Cougars have had a great season but still have a lot of work to do to win four more.
2. Purdue (Midwest No. 1 seed)
It's easy to just write Purdue off as the same old Purdue.
The Boilermakers lost to 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson last year and to 15-seed St. Peter's the year before, and this team looks and feels so similar to those two that it can be hard to take Purdue seriously. Focus on just this season, though, and you start to see a very different picture.
Zach Edey is still mostly the same — and that's great news. Edey is an absolute monster. He's not just the best player in college basketball. He literally towers over the field, and he's the best college player in some time. Utah State is a very good, top-25 team and threw everything it had at Edey with double teams, zones, the whole book. Edey finished with 21 points and 10 boards… at halftime.
Edey is good enough to take over any game, and it doesn't really matter if you think he'll cut it at the next level, because he's demolishing the current level.
But it's no longer just Edey. That was the problem with the past couple of teams, who panicked at times when Edey couldn't do everything and didn't have the guard play to hold up against top opponents. This year's guards are steadier and more proven, and Purdue actually ranks second in the nation in 3-point percentage. Turns out surrounding the best big man in a generation with elite shooting is pretty good!
Braden Smith in particular has stepped up in a big way this season, a clear lead guard and facilitator on this team, and he looks healthy after a Big 10 tournament scare. The improved guard play has also helped Purdue play much faster this season — important because it's a more versatile team but also because slow play means fewer possessions for the better team to be better. Purdue will also win the rebounding and free-throw battles in most games.
The Boilermakers already beat Gonzaga, Tennessee, and Marquette — quite possibly their next three opponents — along with Arizona and Alabama, and they demolished quality Utah State, Samford, and Morehead State squads. This year the Boilers have played up, not down, against top competition.
Purdue has never made a Final Four in the modern tournament. This team believes it can get there — and then win two more.
TIER I – A LEAGUE OF THEIR OWN
1. UConn (East No. 1 seed)
Was there ever really any doubt?
UConn was the No. 1 overall seed and looked the part on opening weekend, effectively ending both its games before halftime against two woefully outmatched opponents. This is what we saw last year too, when the Huskies won all six games by at least 13 points and never even looked threatened.
At this point, there's little reason to think of UConn as anything other than a heavy favorite. The Huskies have the look of an NBA team that accidentally got allowed into the NCAA tournament. They play a pro style, run efficient offense (3s and layups!), and have talented dudes getting good looks and taking them away at the other end.
Tristan Newton, Donovan Clingan, and Cam Spencer grade out as three of the 12 most impactful players in the nation, per Evan Miya, and that's not even accounting for freshman Stephon Castle, likely the highest future NBA draft pick. UConn also has a tendency to play up in its biggest games, which means this team's metrics might actually be a bit deflated as a team this good coasted waiting for the games that mattered.
The only question now is whether the Huskies can live up to expectations. Anything less than another title is a disappointment at this point. But we haven't seen a repeat champ since 2007 — haven't even seen one get past the Sweet 16 in that span! — and haven't had the No. 1 overall seed win it all since 2012.
UConn is the best team in the nation, by margin. If this was even a best-of-three tournament, I'd take UConn versus the field in a heartbeat.
But that's the beauty of a knockout tournament.
Anything can happen in March — that's why they call it Madness.
